Welcome back for another edition of Hit Rate by Rounds. In today’s article, we’ll be focusing on the running back position. The goal of this article is to see whether draft capital has become a stronger predictor of fantasy production for running backs over the past 14 seasons. I split the data into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because RBs typically take a couple of years to produce. Adding rookies to the equation would skew the numbers too much in favor of the older group. The charts below show the hit rate for running backs drafted in each round (1–7), measuring what percentage went on to post at least one Top-12, Top-24, or Top-36 fantasy season. This gives us a sense of how likely a back is to deliver meaningful fantasy value based on draft capital. Looking at Round 1, the same number of running backs have been drafted in Round 1 in both groups, but the success rates have decreased. It has become harder to identify elite first-round running backs in recent years. Rd 1 RB Total Top 12 Top 24 Top 36 2011 – 2017 9 = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% 2018 – 2024 9 = 6/9 = 67% = 7/9 = 78% = 8/9 = 89% 2011 – 2024 18 = 14/18 = 78% = 15/18 = 83% = 16/18 = 89% Looking at Round 2, fewer running backs have been drafted in Round 2 recently, and the hit rates […]
Running Back Fantasy Hit Rate By Rounds
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