Analytics

CMC

A Journey into the VORP VOID

The Dynasty landscape is ever-changing and shifting depending on rule changes in the NFL, scheme changes around the league, position groups fading out, and then resurging through youth and the NFL Draft. I noticed a fairly drastic shift in the value of running backs while working through a few Dynasty and Devy startups this off-season. 

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Christian Watson

Breaking Down the Metrics: Dynasty Football Wide Receivers

In the fantasy football Twitter space, different and new stats and metrics are thrown out constantly by people talking about their favorite and least favorite players. My job as a numbers-based analyst is to understand which statistics best project fantasy success. In this mini-series, I will go through each position and tell you some of my favorite stats, how much they matter, and stats I often see that do not matter as much as someone might want you to think. Let’s dive right in with our first position: wide receiver.

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Post-Season Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Receivers 8-11

It’s officially playoff time and we’re all living in a Covid-fueled fantasy hellscape as we’ve never seen before. Luckily, we play dynasty so we can say “Next season’s our year” like we’re Cowboy’s fans in January and think about the offseason. Rookies should be at the top of your buy and sell plans so we’ll continue our Dynasty Rookie Rankings series with the talent-packed 2021 receiver class. Make sure you’re caught up with the running back class.

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Quarterbacks: Rightfully Untouched by the BMI Hysteria

Historically, there has been a strong narrative in the football community about QB size despite players like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray balling out on Sundays. The QB size debate begins with how tall a QB is and if it affects their ability to make reads of the defense on passing plays. There has been a lot of discussion around QB hand size and its correlation to QB performance in cold-weather games. Analysts have even studied QB weight and how it translates to their durability in the NFL. So I decided to use my newly released college prospect database and explore BMI and QB performance. Before going any further, there needs to be a brief overview of BMI. BMI compares an individual’s weight to their height and it’s used to describe their level of body fat or thickness. The index was derived from the works of the Belgian thinker, Adolphe Quetelet.

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A Statistician’s Journey into DFS

DFS or Daily Fantasy Sports is a genre of fantasy that involves building a team from a designated “salary” each week. Players range in salary depending on their popularity, matchup, points per game, etc.… but every week you are given 50,000 dollars to build your lineup. I play DraftKings, so this includes 1 QB, 2

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How to use Classification Trees to Predict the Future

Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling sounds very boring, but it is actually one of the most interesting and intuitive modeling methods available. I have covered two types of modeling so far: Multi-Linear Regression and Neural Networks. CART Modeling is by FAR the simplest and most comprehensible. Cart modeling allows us to create a visible

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Mockalytics 2018: A Two Round Rookie Mock Draft based on Analytics: Round 2

The fantasy and dynasty landscapes are filled with disagreements and debates, some of which are more friendly than others. Draft season, in particular, seems to stoke the coals of the timeless battle between the “tape” and “numbers” guys and gals of fantasy and real football analysis alike. Whilst the ever-sought “correct” way to analyse rookie

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Mockalytics 2018: A Two Round Rookie Mock Draft based on Analytics

The fantasy and dynasty landscapes are filled with disagreements and debates, some of which are more friendly than others. Draft season, in particular, seems to stoke the coals of the timeless battle between the “tape” and “numbers” guys and gals of fantasy and real football analysis alike. Whilst the ever-sought “correct” way to analyse rookie

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How to Use Multiple Linear Regression to Predict WR Production

In my last article, I explained how Neural Networks were the future of predicting football. In this article, I would like to explain why that is not the case.  At least why that is not the case. YET. There are downsides to Neural Networks no matter how good they are at predictions. As I have

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Using Regression and Neural Networks To Predict Fantasy Football

Modeling is the most powerful and underutilized tool in how we as a population analyze and understand football. Often I see people use metrics to try and understand/predict football. They use these metrics individually to understand small segments of a grand picture. For instance, one popular metric I see used is Market Share (MS), but

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