Ask the wrong questions, get the wrong answers.
The analytics vs. film debate is ripping you off. Neither side is willing to come to the middle and admit defeat. But the problem is bigger than that. The analytics versus film debate is forcing you, the fantasy football GM, to make decisions based on half-truths.
The easy answer is to hedge my bets and give the classic answer: Well, first you should look at the stats to refine your search then utilize that shortlist to watch the film. But even then, if your statistical model is wrong you can miss players.
Beware the pitfalls
My final answer? They could all be wrong. If you don’t know what you’re looking for, watching hours of film and identifying traits is useless. I have watched a good amount of football over the years, but having never played the game myself I wouldn’t be sure what I am looking for half of the time. Guys like D.K. Metcalf, Henry Ruggs, etc. jump off the screen. They’re freaks possessing elite physical capabilities that my 5’10” 225-pound self cannot fathom.
Ok, so we have established that my eye isn’t good enough. So I will build a statistical model utilizing spreadsheets and pivot tables and formulas to analyze breakout age against strength of schedule, etc. The reality is that unless your background is in education or work regularly with spreadsheets and analytics, you also may not be smart enough to build the correct formulas and may miss players here, too.
Play to your strengths
So what is the answer? How am I to decide which player to take with the 1.06 to take me to the ship? Which player at the end of the second is going to see me go back-to-back? The most important player to understand is yourself. We all have strengths and weaknesses in our day-to-day lives. We optimize our draft strategy to suit our team by utilizing the skill set we have and using that skill set to determine the questions that need to be answered.
My background as a swimming coach and public relations major helped me develop an ability to critically analyze data and produce conclusions based on understanding and record. I have developed my own formula. I look for analysts smarter than me. Not more popular… SMARTER. Then I look for those with yearly trends of being right. No one in this industry, Vegas, or in the NFL is right 100% of the time. Brady was a seventh-round pick and Trent Richardson went first overall. They get it wrong and so will those around you.
The plan
So here is my four-point playbook to identify who, what, and how to get you feeling good walking into draft day this offseason.
- Twitter. It’s an echo chamber but the best guys will stand out. @MattWaldman was the first analyst who made me realize I don’t need to always listen to the same three podcasts. Seek out new podcasts and new writers, and give an episode or an article a trial. Find a topic you like and listen to them speak about that topic. If you start something new about something that interests you it’s easier to determine whether you like them. Remember that popular doesn’t mean right.
- Look for trends. You now have your 5-8 go-tos who you think know their stuff. You may find that someone has a better track record with wide receivers. Did they tell you to draft Metcalf or fade Terry McLaurin? Did they hype up James Robinson and Phillip Lindsay? Find out which analysts are your WR guys, which analysts are your RB guys, and who is the best judge of QBs. One of my favorite analysts has been super high on Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Jacob Eason in recent years. I will be fading his views on QBs this year.
- Compile your lists and determine team needs. Seems simple, but each of your teams should have a different draft board. If you’re coming off back-to-back ships and you’ve lost players, maybe drafting a Kyle Pitts at 1.06 isn’t the answer, but trading back to 10 and taking a guy like Kenneth Gainwell landing in Miami could be the tonic to give you another year contending at the top.
- Trust yourself. At the end of the day, draft guys you like. I gravitate toward safe pocket QBs. At times it hurts my teams but it is how I play the game, and allows me to go boom-bust guys like Mike Evans, D.K., etc. at WR. If you want a guy, draft him. The worst-case scenario is you take a loss, trade him away, and draft again next year.
Thanks for reading! Reach out to me on Twitter @markbullishere with any fantasy questions.
