Rookie Stock Market: Week 8

We did it, fam! We’re officially halfway through the ridiculous 2020 fantasy football season. It has been a crazy one, with plenty of drama and anxiety over rescheduled games and all the other headaches that have come with this football season’s tussle with COVID-19. We have had players from the 2020 rookie class we have been able to count on, and some that have fallen on their faces and cost our teams precious points. Let’s take a look at what happened in Week 8 and how we can use that information to help teams down the stretch of this unique season.

Risers

Tee Higgins – WR Bengals

Week 8 Snap Shot

The second-round pick out of Clemson has been on the rise for several weeks now, but I thought he was definitely worth mentioning this week after leading the Bengals in both targets and receiving yards in their Week 8 matchup against Tennessee. Going into the season, I believe most thought Higgins would be the third option at best in the Bengals’ passing game. But as we have eclipsed the halfway point of the fantasy season, Higgins is the second-most productive pass catcher in Cincinnati. A.J. Green has been a bit of a letdown, and Higgins has 172 more yards and three more touchdowns than the aging veteran. The rookie is now firmly in the WR2 chair and won’t be looking back. Although Boyd is outproducing Higgins this season, I believe it would be foolish to say Boyd is clear WR1 when looking to 2021 and beyond. Boyd’s role in the slot is safe but Higgins is shaping up to be the alpha on the outside. Similar to the situation in Seattle with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett last year, Boyd will more than likely be more productive this year, but Higgins could easily close the gap and maybe even overtake Boyd in year two. I do not think it will be long until Higgins is the most valuable dynasty WR asset in Cincinnati.

J.K. Dobbins – RB Ravens

Week 8 Snap Shot

With Mark Ingram out of the picture we finally got to see what Dobbins is capable of. As seen in the Snap Shot, Ingram was given a sizable workout load and performed well, eclipsing 100 yards on the ground against a very stout Pittsburgh defense. J.K. Dobbins is the only RB this season to gain more than 100 yards rushing against the Steelers, and he did so on 15 carries via a hefty 7.5 YPC. Despite the great production, it is not all sunshine and roses when looking at Dobbins’ 2020 outlook. In Week 8 both Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson had more carries with 16 apiece. Although not as efficient, Edwards had a sizeable role even with Mark Ingram out. Once a healthy Ingram is back in the lineup, I find it hard for Dobbins to get 15 carries again. Dobbins’ explosion could just be a flash in the pan, but we are talking dynasty here, and the future still looks good for Dobbins. Although Ingram is technically signed through the 2021 season, the Ravens have a potential out in his contract after this season which would save them over $5M. If Dobbins continues to flash and show efficiency the Ravens could find letting Ingram go easy. At this point in the season and according to playerprofiler.com, J.K. Dobbins is #3 in “Yards Created Per Touch” and #4 in “Breakaway Run Rate” but @GrahamBarfield sums it up best:

The hope is the Ravens understand analytics and utilize J.K. Dobbins’ value to their franchise while he is still on his rookie contract. If the Ravens hand over the keys to Dobbins in 2021, he’ll be firmly within the top 10 dynasty RBs.

Fallers

Jonathan Taylor – RB Colts

Week 8 Snap Shot

Jonathan Taylor has slowly but surely crushed my expectations for him throughout the season. I was all aboard the Taylor hype train heading into Week 2 but after almost every week my hope for him diminishes a bit. Thus far this season Taylor has more games with less the 50% snap share than he does more. For a back expected to be in a bell-cow role after an injury to Marlon Mack, his season has been a giant disappointment. On top of his lack of heavy usage is his inefficiencies as a runner. Unlike Dobbins, Taylor does not rank well in “True Yards Per Carry” (#47) or “Breakaway Run Rate” (#29). Taylor played Week 8 hurt which explains his low snap share, but his lack of efficiency is a season-long issue. As a coach, I would have a hard time giving my RB averaging 3.9 YPC a larger workload than what he currently has. I am not in full panic mode on Taylor, but I am getting pretty close.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB Chiefs

Week 8 Snap Shot

Two weeks into the CEH and Le’Veon Bell experience things unfolding just as CEH owners feared. In the past two weeks, CEH has seen season lows in both snap shares and touches with 53% and nine in Week 7 and 50% and nine in Week 8. The surprising thing is Bell’s snap share in comparison with 33% and 26% for the past two weeks. It appears Helaire is still the lead back in Kansas City but the lack of touches is concerning. Both of these games have been big wins, and leaning on the run to close out games is how many teams do it, but that is apparently not the case for the Chiefs, especially in Week 8 where the Chiefs passed the ball 47 and ran the ball only 20 times in their 26-point win. The addition of Le’Veon Bell and the Chiefs’ affinity to pass the ball has not been a combination of success for CEH. This greatly caps his 2020 outlook and hurts your team massively if you are counting on Edwards-Helaire on a weekly basis. But like Dobbins, Edwards-Helaire could be set up for success in 2021 and beyond with Bell just signed for the 2020 season. As a CEH owner, you just need to ride out the storm and wait for this value to rebound.

Buys

Lynn Bowden Jr. – WR/RB Dolphins

The jack of all trades out of Kentucky has done essentially nothing at this point in the season, but a straight to DVD trade at the NFL deadline has shaken things up in Miami.

Isaiah Ford was the Dolphins primary slot receiver, a role I thought Bowden was suited well for before the NFL Draft. In addition to the trade of Ford, the Dolphins’ starting RB Myles Gaskin is expected to miss several games with a knee sprain. Bowden was productive as both a receiver and ball carrier in college, and the perfect storm has formed off the coast of Miami that may put Bowden in position for a lot more work than he was previously seeing. Lynn Bowden Jr. should be a low-risk investment for you. Bowden might even be on your dynasty league’s waiver wire, but if not he can probably be acquired for a fourth-round pick after his complete flop thus far this season. Bowden was a player I was high on for several months, so picking him up cheap seems like an easy decision considering he could carve out a role in the Dolphins’ offense with both Ford and Gaskin now out of the picture. Let’s not forget that Bowden led the SEC in rushing just last year. This is a classic “Buy Low” opportunity. If you are not convinced on Bowden, please take look at my previous breakdowns of him:

Post Draft Profile

Pre Draft Profile

Sells

I’m sure I am starting to sound like a broken record here, but James Robinson and Chase Claypool are still my rookie sells. They are both highly regarded by many within the dynasty community, but I do not believe in their long-term value. James Robinson has looked great, but undrafted RBs don’t often hold onto starting RB roles for long. Claypool has had some massive games, but they are almost all when Diontae Johnson is hurt. I go into more detail in the previous articles which I will link below, but simply put, players with profiles like James Robinson and Chase Claypool are outliers and I don’t like betting on outliers.

Rookie Stock Market Week 6

Rookie Stock Market Week 5

Rookie Stock Market Week 4

Rookie Stock Market Week 3

Rookie Stock Market Week 2

I considered adding Jonathan Taylor to this list, but again due to how strong his college profile is I am not ready to give up on him yet. A player with this athleticism and college production SHOULD be good in the NFL. Even if Taylor never becomes a stud, his value is sure to rise higher than it is now after playing banged up in Week 8.

Thanks for reading my eighth edition of the Rookie Stock Market, come back again next week to see how things have changed. You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.