Rookie Stock Market: Week 4

With four weeks of NFL action behind us, we are now really starting to get a good idea about who’s the real deal. Joe Burrow looks like the QB we hoped he would be, and Justin Jefferson is looking like a great asset. However, there are still plenty of rookies not on the top of their games, for several different reasons, that will surely be assets later this season or next. Per usual, I will dive into some “Risers”, “Fallers”, “Buys” and “Sells” while assessing their Week 4 performance and long term outlook.

Risers

Antonio Gibson – RB, Washington Football Team

Week 4 Snap Shot

Just three weeks ago Antonio Gibson was on my “Fallers” list. Going into the season, it appeared the lead-back role in Washington was Gibson’s loss, and his Week 1 performance and usage was not what many dynasty owners had expected. However, after his disappointing Week 1, Gibson has been on the rise, finding his way into the end zone three weeks in a row. His fantasy production has been solid, but his full potential has yet to be revealed. Despite the three touchdowns, his usage has not been very high. In four weeks of action, Antonio Gibson has only eclipsed 50% snap share once, in Week 2. Gibson was considered a raw prospect coming out of Memphis, so it could be expected that he hasn’t been handed a workhorse workload, but when you consider his competition is Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissic, it leaves you wondering why he isn’t getting more snaps? Antonio Gibson has massive potential due to his rare size, speed, and receiving ability, but his value may ultimately be capped as it appears the coaching staff in Washington doesn’t appear to trust him with a large workload. His value is rising due to the ability he has flashed, but it could skyrocket if he sees a 65% snap share regularly. 

Gabriel Davis – WR, Bills

Week 4 Snap Shot

With John Brown out early in Week 3 due to injury, the fourth-round pick out of UCF stepped up in a big way, taking advantage of his 74% snap share, catching all four of his targets for 81 yards. Then in Week 4, with John Brown back in the lineup, Davis still made an impact as seen in the Snap Shot. The strong performances of Davis the past few weeks should have Cole Beasley owners concerned. Since Week 3, Davis has out-snapped by a large margin, 74% to 61%, and then 59% to 30%. It would appear the rookie Davis might be taking over the slot role in Buffalo, as over half of the snaps Davis has seen this season have come from the slot. With John Brown signed through 2021 and Stefon Diggs signed through 2023, Gabriel Davis has plenty of target competition, but with one of them out of the picture, it could be wheels up for Gabriel Davis and his value.

Harrison Bryant – TE, Browns

Week 4 Snap Shot

Full disclosure – I loved Harrison Bryant pre-draft, as did my buddy @DFF_Ztrain but I was disappointed in both his landing spot, on the Browns with the newly signed and highly paid Austin Hooper and the young and talented David Njoku on the roster. It appeared Bryant would be playing third fiddle for a while, but after Week 1 David Njoku was put on IR, and Harrison Bryant has shown promise ever since. Bryant has seen his snap rate grow each week those far, 42% -> 52% -> 63% -> 69%, but what intrigues me the most is his slot usage. Bryant is seeing 18% of his snaps in the slot, much higher than his counterpart Hooper’s slot usage of just 8%. If you watched Harrison Bryant play in college he lined up in the slot and even out wide very often so his usage as a “non-traditional” TE is not a surprise but it is a great sign, showing the Brown’s belief in his abilities as a receiver. As of now, Bryant’s value is on the rise as he has been the most productive rookie TE those far this season, but things could change in Week 5. David Njoku is set to return from IR this week and could start eating into Bryant’s workload. So for now, Bryant is tentatively on the rise.

Fallers

Jonathan Taylor – RB, Colts

Week 4 Snap Shot

Not too long ago, Jonathan Taylor was in my “Risers” list and now he and Antonio Gibson have switched places, showing just how quickly rookie values and performances can change. After Week 1 Taylor looked to be in line for a true workhorse role after Marlon Mack ruptured his Achilles. In Week 2 things looked great for Taylor as he logged a 67% snap rate with 28 touches for 110 yards and a TD, but since then it has been a much different story. Since Week 2 Jonathan Taylor has yet to see more than 46% of the snaps or gain more than 79 total yards. This is confusing as Taylor looked great in the feature back role when given the chance. While Jonathan Taylor has taken on a smaller role, his value diminishes as well. There was a two-horse race for the Rookie RB1 but there is now a horse pretty clearly in the lead, the one that has yet to see less than 62% of the snaps, that RB being Clyde Edwards-Helaire. 

Buys

Jonathan Taylor – RB, Colts

It is not often you are given a buy window on a player with the same potential Jonathan Taylor carries. Although Taylor’s value is probably still higher than it was a few months ago, this may be the lowest it will ever be. As outlined above Taylor has been a bit of a disappointment the past two weeks. The snap share is concerning but it shouldn’t completely turn you away. Taylor is still the best ball carrier on the team, and he is no slouch as a receiver. I still have full confidence that he will be back to his Week 2 usage sooner rather than later. The coaching staff cannot ignore his performance when given the reins in a dominant win over the Vikings. This is one of those situations where you have to buy into the talent and just be patient. What you need to do as a dynasty owner is see how patient the Jonathan Taylor owners are in your leagues and see if you take them off their hands. Per ADP Taylor is the 1.07 in startups, but this may be your last chance to buy in before his owners are asking for three first-round picks for him.

Sells

James Robinson – RB, Jaguars

Same old same old here. If you are competing for the championship I would consider holding onto him, better yet I would sell him at value for another asset that can help you now. If you are not in contention I would try selling James Robinson to someone competing for the championship for a pretty penny. As I have outlined in the past few weeks, I do not believe Robinson is a long term RB in the NFL. There just aren’t many undrafted RBs in feature roles, especially undrafted RBs that run a less than impressive 4.64 40 yard dash. If I were a James Robinson owner, I would kick the tires on James Robinson for Jonathan Taylor trade. I would feel comfortable throwing in a kicker piece to get it done. The key here is to sell James Robinson while he is still the lead back, something I am not sure he will be next season or even later this season.

Thanks for checking out the “Rookie Stock Market”, and make sure to be back next week for a post Week 5 edition. You can follow Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.