Before the NFL Draft, I thought Lynn Bowden Jr. would be used as a slot receiver in the NFL, considering how dominant and explosive he was as a sophomore leading the University of Kentucky Wildcats receivers. I wrote a pre-draft profile on Bowden, highlighting his ability and potential as a pass-catcher. However, shortly after being drafted by the Raiders in the third round, they have announced Bowden will be a RB.
After breaking down Lynn Bowden Jr. as a pass-catcher back in January, I will now break him down as a ball carrier and give some insight on the fantasy impact you can expect from him in 2020 and beyond.
Before getting into the thick of it, I wanted to highlight the ridiculous versatility Lynn Bowden Jr. provided UK during his three years there; he did it all.
In 2017 as a true freshman, Lynn showed flashes of his playmaking ability and versatility, finishing the year with 12 carries and 17 receptions. He truly made his presence known as a sophomore when he broke-out commanding a 34% dominator rating, good for second-best of all sophomore receivers in 2018. Then this past season, after a series on injuries at the QB position, Lynn Bowden Jr. was placed under center, playing the role of a run-first QB. Once taking the reins in Week 6, Lynn Bowden Jr. hit the ground running and led the SEC in rushing yards with 1,468 in essentially just eight games as the lead rusher in the UK system. That is an unworldly average of 171 rushing yards per game after Week 6 while playing QB full time. Teams knew Bowden was going to be running right at them, but he was still unstoppable.
Rushing Ability
As a runner, Bowden displays three main traits that are attributed to his absurd YPC of 7.9 in 2019. Burst, power, and vision fueled the scorch marks he left on SEC defenses. I’ve selected a handful of plays that showcase these abilities below.
Here Bowden uses his burst to get upfield and through the hole and then bounces right off the South Carolina defender on his way to gaining crucial yards after contact before making his way out of bounds.
Nearly every game, Bowden would carve a defense up with a run like the one above using a little bit of everything in his skill set. Vision to find the hole, burst to get through it, and then balance and strength to run through several tackle attempts.
Lynn Bowden Jr. had a knack for finding the endzone in 2019, 13 times to be exact. It was partially due to his power and relentlessness as a runner, as seen in the clip above.
Against Louisville, Bowden had an absolute field day. On 22 carries he rushed for 284 yards and four touchdowns. The run above was arguably the best of the bunch.
I think it is evident that Bowden is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and is a natural at making defenders miss and creating extra yards. These traits will make him a nice backup to Josh Jacobs.
2020 Opportunity
Right out of the gate, I expect Bowden to step in as the second back in Las Vegas. This is primarily due to the lack of talent behind Jacobs on the depth chart. Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard are the only back standing in Bowden’s way, and neither has shown to be efficient rushers. In Booker’s four seasons in the NFL, he has an abysmal 3.8 YPC. In Richard’s first season in the NFL, he was an efficient rusher, averaging 5.9 yards to carry, but his average has then dropped every year since, 4.9 in 2017, 4.7 in 2018, and then 3.7 in 2019. I believe the Raiders realized they were lacking an explosive runner behind Josh Jacobs and drafted the player with the highest YPC in all of Division 1 football. That player being Lynn Bowden Jr. the do it all athlete out of Kentucky. Bowden’s 7.9 YPC is the best I have seen of any QB in college, better than Lamar Jackson’s 2017 best of 6.9, Cam Newton’s 2007 best of 6.4, and Michael Vick’s 2000 best of 5.9.
As the second back in Las Vegas, Bowden takes the role of DeAndre Washington, now with the Chiefs, who leaves behind 108 rushes and 36 receptions, good for 679 yards and three touchdowns. This equated to 121.9 PPR points which were good for RB40 in 2019. However, Bowden has the potential to do bigger and better things than Washington. This is due to two major factors. The first is Washington’s 3.8 YPC in 2019. DeAndre left a lot of yardage and points on the field. As we have already established, Bowden should be a much more efficient runner. The second factor that should attribute to Bowden’s ability to eclipse Washington’s production is his ability as a pass-catcher. As highlighted in my article on Bowden as a slot receiver, he was very good and commanded over a third of his teams receiving production as a true sophomore. When comparing him to the other 2020 Rookie RB’s as pass catchers, he is in a league of his own.
So when projecting Bowden’s production in 2020, I believe it is fair to bump him a good bit over Washington’s numbers in 2019. An improvement from 3.8 YPC to 5.0 YPC would boost the rushing yards up to 540. With an uptick in receptions from 36 to 45 at the same yards per catch of 8.1 that comes out to 364.5 yards. Combining the rushing and receiving yards it comes out to 904. Tack on 45 receptions and the same three TDs Washington had in 2019, and Bowden’s 2020 campaign is good for 153.4 PPR points. That would have made Bowden the RB30 in 2019, three spots behind Tarik Cohen with 163.9 points and three spots ahead of Devin Singleterry with 147.9 points. Now to be clear, I am very much an amateur at stat projections, but forecasting Bowden in 2020 as a suped-up DeAndre Washington seems pretty fair to me.
2021 and beyond
Lynn Bowden Jr. will likely never usurp Josh Jacobs as the lead back, but his role could certainly expand from what I project him to do in 2020. For Bowden to truly be unlocked, he needs to be regularly used in the slot, where he was deadly as a sophomore at Kentucky. The main obstacle to this is Hunter Renfrow. The 2019 fifth-round pick had a very solid rookie year, putting together a stat line of 49 receptions for 606 yards and four touchdowns. He is a good player, but as a prospect, his profile is nothing compared to Bowden’s. Lynn Bowden will need to eat into Renfrow’s slot usage to become more than backup RB and third-down back. Without seeing Bowden’s usage for the Raiders yet, I cannot say if this will happen or not, but it is definitely within the realm of possibility. If this does happen, Bowden would quickly become a hot commodity in PPR leagues. As we have seen before, elite pass-catching backs can be RB1s, even while getting fewer snaps than the “lead backs” on their teams. In 2017, third round rookie selection Alvin Kamara was PPR RB3 with a 44.9% snap rate to PPR RB6 Mark Ingram’s 54.8% snap rate. In 2018 Tarik Cohen was PPR RB11 while taking 47.9% of the snaps to Jordan Howard’s 59.5%. In 2019, once Melvin Gordon took the field in Week 5, Austin Ekeler the PPR RB4 had a snap rate of 51.8% compared to Melvin Gordon’s 55.2%. In 2019 Josh Jacobs had a snap rate of 54.8%…That’s plenty of opportunity left for Bowden. Once again without Bowden ever taking an NFL snap, this is something I cannot predict with confidence, but it is possible.
Price vs. Potential
In the rookie drafts I have been in, Bowden was always available in the third round. He was essentially an auto-select for me when available. To me, his potential greatly outweighs his price, making him an outstanding value. If you did not land him in your rookie drafts, I would start trying to acquire him for a future third and a small additional piece if needed or something similar in value. If Lynn Bowden Jr. ends up being a suped-up DeAndre Washington in Las Vegas, he is a solid third-round rookie pick. If Bowden becomes an elite pass-catching back, he’s a grand slam of a third-round rookie pick. High Upside + Low Price = Buy
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