Ohio State RB JK Dobbins Declares For The 2020 NFL Draft

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The 2020 NFL Draft class has received the most hype in recent memory. Part of the reason for that is because of how deep it is perceived to be. Dynasty owners will be able to find meaningful contributors for their teams in the third round and later. Depth is nice, but that’s not how we win championships. My excitement around the 2020 class hype derives from the talent that lies at the top of this class. Following a close loss to Clemson, Ohio State running back J’Kaylin Dobbins took no time considering his next step. On December 30th, 2019, JK Dobbins officially declared for the 2020 NFL Draft. Dobbins enters the pre-draft process as one of the most talented offensive players in the draft and my personal RB3.

High School Days

JK Dobbins attended La Grange High School in La Grange, Texas. During his three full seasons—he missed all but one game his Senior year—Dobbins rushed for an impressive 5,149 yards and 74 touchdowns. His stellar production isn’t the only reason colleges were lining up to recruit Dobbins. He put on a show at The Opening, an event showcasing the athleticism of the top high school recruits. Dobbins posted the best score at that event, besting fellow 2020 running back Cam Akers and future teammate, Jeffrey Okudah.

Per 24/7 Sports, Dobbins’ composite recruiting ranking was 0.9791, making him a four-star recruit and the 43rd ranked player in the nation. Despite receiving scholarship offers to closer programs like Texas, Alabama, and Oklahoma, Dobbins decided to make Columbus, Ohio his home for the next few years.

Statistical analysis

The above game log comes from his freshman season. Yes, you read correctly, his freshman season. In his very first game, Dobbins lit up Indiana for 181 yards. He proceeded to top the century mark five more times throughout the season, eclipsing 170 yards two more times. As an 18-year-old, Dobbins rushed for over 1,400 yards while sharing the backfield with future NFL pick, Mike Weber, and a strong rushing quarterback in JT Barrett. While the rushing numbers are encouraging to see, I was happier to see his 20 receptions. Having 20 receptions in a collegiate season makes it more likely for a running back to hit 30 receptions in an NFL season.

This statistical output led to a breakout season—a season with a dominator rating >15%.  When looking at which running backs have the best chance of hitting, early age production is something to chase. This special season resulted in Dobbins breaking the single-season freshman rushing record at Ohio State.

Dobbins took a clear step back his second season. His touchdowns and receptions increasing is encouraging, but he saw a major decrease in production running the ball. Gaining 350 fewers yards on 36 more carries is not the performance that devy communities were expecting. After posting a breakout age of 18.8, this sophomore slump had people concerned. Yes, the offensive line wasn’t great for either him or Weber, but he himself admitted that his play was part of the problem. His poor statistical performance reflected how sluggish Dobbins looked in 2018.

Dobbins didn’t just return to 2017 form, he exceeded it. On just 71 more carries than the previous year, Dobbins rushed for 950 more yards and 11 more touchdowns. In 2019, Dobbins became the first Ohio State player to eclipse 2,000 yards rushing. The improved offensive system did make life easier for Dobbins, but he also looked significantly better than he did in 2018. In 2019, Dobbins showcased his wide range of skills that have me enamored with his potential.

Film Review

The first play is simple, but it shows his abilities catching passes out of the backfield. In this play, he’s running an angle route matched up against a linebacker. After angling 45 degrees out, he cuts suddenly and makes a 90 degree turn back inside. The opposing linebacker has no chance at competing with Dobbins’ athleticism. He catches the ball with defenders around him, transitions flawlessly to a runner, and trots into the endzone. These types of plays make me believe he can be a contributor in the passing game at the next level.

This next touchdown gets a little bit of an assist from Justin Fields. The play is a designed run inside. Fields gives Dobbins the handoff but fakes a run to the outside. This causes the linebacker to freeze momentarily and Dobbins presses to the outside before bursting right through the hole that opened. Shedding an arm tackle, Dobbins runs straight into the end zone. While this play is an example of good blocking and the benefit of playing with a mobile quarterback, it also shows off Dobbins’ patience, vision, and burst.

In this last example, Dobbins shows off a wide set of skills. When he gets the handoff, he is met with a few Indiana defenders. With a quick move to the outside, Dobbins gave himself time to let blocks set up and process the defense’s reaction. His lane opens and he immediately takes it. After making a man miss, he breaks four tackles in succession before reaching the end zone. Dobbins showed the mental and physical traits that we desire in running back prospects.

Conclusion

Despite the down sophomore year, JK Dobbins has one of the most impressive prospect profiles in this draft class. Film vs metrics is an ongoing debate in the dynasty community, but Dobbins can appease both crowds. There are countless examples of what makes Dobbins a top tier prospect on tape, while his statistical production—specifically his freshman year production—completes his profile. In a class filled with diamonds, Dobbins still shines.

What are your thoughts on JK Dobbins? Where does he fall in your running back ranks? Let me know on Twitter at @DFF_Steven.

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