Now that the 2023 Dynasty season is coming to a close, it’s time to get a jump on the off-season. In this two-part article that I’ll be dividing into the AFC and NFC, I’ll examine the running back room of every team and give my opinion on whether to buy or sell. I’ll be using KeepTradeCut to assess value, as there currently exists no accurate ADP to judge value.
Let’s wrap this up.
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions
RB1: Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs has panned out big time. I’m buying at his price.
RB2: David Montgomery: Montgomery provided 15.4ppg this season and is due three million guaranteed next season. I don’t see a world where they cut him, so he’s a great late-round RB pickup this offseason.
Chicago Bears
RB1: Khalil Herbert: Herbert has been oft-injured this season and posted a measly 7ppg. The three-way backfield of Herbert, D’Onta Foreman (RB – CHI), and Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI) has me not excited about any of them going into the offseason.
RB2: D’Onta Foreman: Foreman has provided a few serviceable weeks this past season, but the fact that he hasn’t won out against his teammates doesn’t make me excited to trade for him. Pass.
Bonus! RB3: Roschon Johnson: He’s certainly the youngest of the three and this past week led the Chicago backfield, but until one of them gets cut or traded, I’m not buying any of them.
Minnesota Vikings
RB1: Alexander Mattison: I remember hearing that Mattison was a “premium backup” who was due for a huge workload now that Cook is gone. I guess we know now why he was a backup.
RB2: Ty Chandler: He could be an interesting late-round buy, but don’t go out of your way to acquire him.
Green Bay Packers
RB1: Aaron Jones: Jones is cooked. Since his 26-point game in week one, Jones has been injured and unreliable. At 29, I’m not acquiring.
RB2: AJ Dillon: Same predictable fate as Mattison.
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints
RB1: Alvin Kamara: Kamara was the cheapest and most predictable player to score a ton of points this offseason and I loaded up. It paid off, as he posted nearly 20ppg this season at the cost of a ninth-round startup pick. He’s still cheap, he’s going to continue being cheap, and I’m gonna continue buying.
RB2: Kendre Miller: I don’t have too much faith in Miller to be a meaningful difference-maker going forward, but he wasn’t a terrible prospect and he has third-round draft capital. He’s peanuts to acquire and Kamara won’t last forever.
Atlanta Falcons
RB1: Bijan Robinson: I hope Arthur Smith frees the Atlanta Falcons from the purgatory they’re in. I’m buying at his discounted price.
RB2: Tyler Allgeier: He’s cheap and somehow still seeing work. For the price, I’d acquire. Major contingent upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB1: Rachaad White: White has surprised me this season, but don’t be fooled by his ranking as “RB4.” He’s still only posting 16ppg this season on a 12% target share. These numbers are by no means bad, but I’d rather have the players surrounding him in value on KTC, like Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) or Jared Goff (QB – DET).
RB2: Chase Edmonds: Jag.
Carolina Panthers
RB1: Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has never impressed me and has continued to not do so. Jag.
RB2: Miles Sanders: I think it’s become very clear that Sanders was a byproduct of the Eagles’ offensive line. Not buying.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles
RB1: D’Andre Swift: Swift ran hot at the beginning of the season, but I think @Paul_DFF said it best:
*Click image for full tweet*
RB2: Kenneth Gainwell: Jag.
Dallas Cowboys
RB1: Tony Pollard: Pollard, like Swift, ran hot at the beginning of the season, but hasn’t panned out in quite the way that many were expecting in the offseason. I’m moving off of him if I can.
RB2: Rico Dowdle: Jag.
Washington Commanders
RB1: Brian Robinson Jr.: I don’t think he’s particularly good and he doesn’t catch passes. 13.5PPG doesn’t move the needle for me; if he were a backup running back, he’s everything I’d want, but the fact that he’s priced as a starter (RB19 on KTC) makes me inclined to sell.
RB2: Antonio Gibson: Gibson is most likely dead. A 10.4% target share is intriguing, but I’d rather spend my late-round picks on other guys.
New York Giants
RB1: Saquon Barkley: I’m mostly out on Saquon at this point. He’s one of the most interesting free agents to monitor this offseason, so we can only hope he ends up in a nice spot this offseason. If that happens, I’d sell for a mid-first if his price jumps that much, but I’m not buying for a late-first right now. His 15.9% target share is extremely interesting, so pending the right price and the right situation I could be back in, but if he remains on the New York Giants, I’m not acquiring.
RB2: Matt Breida: Jag.
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks
RB1: Kenneth Walker: He’s most definitely talented, but Pete Carroll seems destined to have Walker in a timeshare. Until this backfield gets sorted out, which it most likely won’t, Walker is going to continue to be a touchdown-dependent back locked in a timeshare, coming off of a 13.9PPG season. I’ll pass at his price (RB9).
RB2: Zach Charbonnet: For the same reasons as Walker, Charbonnet is probably destined to stay a sub-middling back. However, his price is lower and his contingent upside is huge. If his price dips a bit more (currently RB21 on KTC) I’d start buying.
Los Angeles Rams
RB1: Kyren Williams: While I don’t often invest in fifth-round runningbacks, 20PPG is not something I’ll turn my nose up at. His directly adjacent players in value don’t move the needle as much as 20PPG, so until his price balloons up more, I’m holding. If you can sell for Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) who is just one slot above him in KTC’s running back rankings, I’d do so.
RB2: Royce Freeman: Jag.
Arizona Cardinals
RB1: James Conner: Conner will probably continue to be extremely cheap points going forward. With only an $8,000,000 cap hit next season and $3,000,000 in dead cap, there’s no reason to think the Cardinals won’t run him into the ground like they’ve been doing the last couple of seasons.
RB2: Emari Demercado: Jag.
San Francisco 49ers
RB1: Christian McCaffrey: At long last, we’ve come to the only RB that really matters in fantasy. McCaffrey has flown in the face of all doubters, those who have called him injury-prone, and former NFL RB Rashard Mendenhall:
*Click image for full tweet*
In all seriousness, CMC provides value at the running back position that no other player comes close to. He posted a jaw-dropping 25.2PPG this season, so I can’t reasonably say you should do anything besides buy him. He’s truly a generational player, so I’d be looking to acquire him for as cheap as I can. Ideally, I’d wait until week one of next season to do so, but (pending injury), McCaffrey doesn’t look to be slowing down one bit.
RB2: Elijah Mitchell: Awesome contingent upside. I’m still buying for cheap.
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