Now that the 2023 Dynasty season is coming to a close, it’s time to get a jump on the offseason. In this two-part article that I’ll be dividing into the AFC and NFC, I’ll examine the running back room of every team and give my opinion on whether to buy or sell. I’ll be using KeepTradeCut to assess value, as no accurate ADP exists to judge value.
Let’s get into it.
AFC NORTH
Cleveland Browns
RB1: Nick Chubb: The Browns have an out in 2024; cutting Chubb only costs them $4 million in dead cap. Along with this, he’s going to be 28, he doesn’t catch passes, and he’s coming off of a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus. If you have him on your roster, I’d look to flip for value-adjacent players like Luke Musgrave (TE – GB) or Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN).
RB2: Jerome Ford: Ford doesn’t excite me—much more of a stopgap player than a legitimate starter.
Baltimore Ravens
RB1: J.K. Dobbins: It’s a shame what happened to Dobbins. Much like Chubb, he’s coming off a brutal injury (torn Achilles tendon) just two years after tearing his ACL, LCL, hamstring, and meniscus, and he doesn’t catch passes. I’d be very surprised if the Ravens give him any sort of contract. However, he’s dirt cheap—you can get him for players like Cade Otton (TE – TB) or Tutu Atwell (WR – LAR). I’d rather him than those guys, but I’m not actively buying him.
RB2: Keaton Mitchell: I would be actively selling Keaton Mitchell for his surrounding peers like Chris Godwin (WR – TB), Russell Wilson (QB – DEN), or Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT). We see this story all the time—late-round RBs simply have no job security (see: James Robinson (RB – NO), Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU), Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)).
Pittsburgh Steelers
RB1: Najee Harris: Najee just couldn’t put it together this season, unfortunately, flying in the face of my suggestion to buy during the offseason (albeit at a low price). I’m not holding; I’d get out now at KTC’s suggestion of a 2024 2nd-round pick.
RB2: Jaylen Warren: Stopgap RB. He has some contingent upside if Najee gets hurt, but I’m not buying.
Cincinnati Bengals
RB1: Joe Mixon: Mixon looked pretty average this season (15ppg), and I don’t see that changing. KTC says he’s priced adjacently to a 2024 2nd-round pick, so I’d sell for that.
RB2: Chase Brown: Stopgap RB.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans
RB1: Derrick Henry: Maybe it’s the Titans’ offensive ineptitude, but I think the end times have finally come for Henry. After posting a meager 15ppg this season, long gone are the days of 2,000 yards. It was enjoyable while it lasted.
RB2: Tyjae Spears: At the low price of admission, I’m in on a third-round RB who has proven himself as a capable pass-catcher, especially since he has a chance to expand his role with the expected decline of Henry.
Houston Texans
RB1: Devin Singletary: Don’t be fooled. I’ve watched Singletary every Sunday (besides this season) since 2019. Eye test and analytics agree—he isn’t good. Sell during this value bump for a 2024 3rd-round pick if you can.
RB2: Dameon Pierce: I remember when film bros told me “Pierce has that dawg in him.” Same with James Robinson. I don’t enjoy players doing poorly, but Pierce being bad is vindicating. Sell for anything.
Indianapolis Colts
RB1: Jonathan Taylor: Permabuy. Young, with a contract, has a (hopefully) productive offense led by Anthony Richardson (QB – IND). I hope you bought him during the small value dip from his hand injury.
RB2: Zack Moss: In terms of backup RBs, Moss showed this season that he holds a lot of conditional value. This value, however, is dependent on him playing for the Colts next season. I don’t imagine they’ll give him a contract, so I’d be selling.
Jacksonville Jaguars
RB1: Travis Etienne: Etienne proved me wrong this offseason, though he’s still only put up 17.5ppg. He still doesn’t catch enough passes to see superstardom, but he is a bell cow. His price is reasonable, so I’d be holding.
RB2: D’Ernest Johnson: He’s a Jag. No pun intended.
AFC EAST
New England Patriots
RB1: Rhamondre Stevenson: The dream is dead, unfortunately. I was tantalized by the pass-catching, but I’d be selling for the 2024 2nd-round pick he’s valued next to.
RB2: Ezekiel Elliot: No real use in buying, but I’m fine to hold since you won’t get anything of value for him.
Buffalo Bills
RB1: James Cook: Cook is an interesting back. The workload probably doesn’t exist in Buffalo for him to be anything more than a high-end RB2, but I’d wait until later in the offseason to sell. I can’t imagine Buffalo spends another 2nd/3rd-round pick on an RB, so he may see a slight value increase heading into next season. I’m not buying.
RB2: Latavius Murray: Jag.
Miami Dolphins
RB1: De’Von Achane: Somehow, he hasn’t beaten out his teammate for the starting job, but his efficiency is outrageous. I don’t expect him to always score two touchdowns a game like he did in his 50-point debut, but the question remains to be seen if he can handle a full workload. I imagine not, but I’m holding for now.
RB2: Raheem Mostert: Mostert will continue to always be near-free points. I’d buy for a 2024 4th-round pick (which is probably where he’ll sink back down to during the offseason). If his price stays what it is —a 2024 2nd-round pick—I’m selling (it won’t).
New York Jets
RB1: Breece Hall: Permabuy. Breece is everything that was promised, and he seems to be fully recovered.
RB2: Dalvin Cook: Dalvin Cooked.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
RB1: Javonte Williams: Maybe I’m foolish, but I’m still buying Javonte at price. A 13% target share is always intriguing, but we’ve also seen weeks where he commanded the backfield. At his price, I’m fine with either holding or buying. I hope the Broncos can put together some semblance of a working offense next season.
RB2: Samaje Perine: Jag.
Kansas City Chiefs
RB1: Isiah Pacheco: See: James Robinson, Dameon Pierce. Sell for the return you can get.
RB2: Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Clyde was cooked upon arrival. I’m out.
Las Vegas Raiders
RB1: Josh Jacobs: I’m glad he got his money, but not even 14ppg this season doesn’t constitute a buy. A swing and a miss by me, but his RB value hasn’t changed since August: the RB10 then and the RB10 now. I’d sell later during the offseason.
RB2: Ameer Abdullah: Jag.
Los Angeles Chargers
RB1: Austin Ekeler: Ekeler’s rushing has looked cooked this offseason, and the market agrees. Since August, he’s dropped from the RB9 to the RB25; seeing as he’s an unrestricted free agent in 2024, I hope he wins you a championship if you have him on your roster now. You’re probably not getting anything of value for him during the offseason, so his internal value is higher than his external value. I’d hold until next season or sell when he gets signed somewhere. He will score you more PPR points than the 2024 3rd-round pick you’ll get for him.
RB2: Joshua Kelley: Jag.
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