C.J. Stroud – Untouchable Dynasty Asset

C.J. Stroud continued making NFL history in his playoff debut on Saturday, taking down the Cleveland Browns in convincing fashion. This game further confirmed what we already knew as NFL and fantasy football fans: C.J. Stroud is him. We really haven’t seen a rookie quarterback perform at this level before. Justin Herbert was better from a fantasy perspective but not a real-life perspective. Looking at everything Stroud has accomplished on the field in Year 1, I have difficulty ranking him lower than the 1.03 in Superflex formats. This may seem a bit ambitious, but allow me to make my case. 

A Breakdown of Stroud’s Legendary Rookie Season 

The list of NFL accomplishments in Stroud’s short time as a professional is seemingly endless. We have a lot to cover, so let’s jump right in. Stroud is one of three quarterbacks in NFL history with 4,100 pass yards in their rookie year:

1. Andrew Luck – 4,374 yards
2. Justin Herbert – 4,336 yards
3. C.J. Stroud – 4,108 yards

Stroud is the only rookie quarterback in NFL history with 4,100 pass yards AND a passer rating of 100 or more. He’s second all-time, behind Justin Herbert, in rookie pass yards per game with 273.9 (minimum nine games played). Like Herbert, Stroud played in just 15 games as a rookie, missing two games for a concussion late in the year. If he had played these two games, he was on pace to finish with 4,655 pass yards on the season. 

According to NFL.com, Stroud had an interception percentage of just 1%, leading the NFL. He’s the first rookie since Paul Governali in 1946 to lead the NFL in this category. 

Stroud’s 23:5 TD:INT ratio also led the NFL, making him the youngest quarterback in NFL history to lead in TD:INT ratio. 

In Week 9 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stroud set the rookie record for pass yards in a game (470) and tied the rookie record for touchdowns in a game with five. 

When you combine the total passing numbers, records broken, and efficiency, it’s not unreasonable to say C.J. Stroud had the greatest rookie QB season in NFL history. 

Wild Card Magic

Yesterday against the Browns, Stroud led the Texans to a dominant win in his playoff debut, posting a nearly perfect 98.4 QBR. In that 45-14 beatdown, Stroud tied the rookie record for pass TDs in a playoff game with three touchdowns. And he reached this milestone in the first half. 

Stroud became the youngest QB to win a playoff game, passing Michael Vick for the record. His 157.2 passer rating was the fourth-highest in any playoff game in NFL history, according to CBS Sports. He also set the record for highest completion percentage (76.2%) in playoff history for a rookie quarterback. 

Team Outlook

Keep in mind, this was a Houston Texans team that finished at 3-13-1 in 2022. This was the second-worst record in the league, seemingly years away from competing. Yet in Year 1, C.J. Stroud led this team to a 10-7 record, an AFC South Championship, and their first playoff win since the 2019 season. 

Sure, he has some nice receiving weapons in Nico Collins and Tank Dell. But Dell hasn’t played in six weeks, and Nico has missed two games himself. Stroud has had to rely on the likes of Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods for a good portion of the season. I don’t need to tell you those guys are not world-beaters. 

This Houston backfield consists of Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce, and the offensive line is statistically below average. C.J. Stroud had a protection rate of 82.9%, which was QB28 overall, and he threw 107 pressured passes this season, which ranked 7th in the NFL. Stroud has had a less-than-ideal surrounding cast as a rookie and has outperformed all expectations entering the season. According to Spotrac, Houston is projected to have the fourth-most cap space entering the 2024 season. Houston can build around Stroud and make this a really dangerous team in the AFC for the foreseeable future. 

Dynasty Value

Stroud’s 18.7 FPPG (4-point pass TD) ranked as the QB7 overall this season, so he was already a mid-QB1 from a fantasy production perspective. However, Stroud’s lack of rushing upside puts a cap on his fantasy ceiling to the point where I don’t know if he’ll ever be considered QB1 overall in Dynasty. Stroud finished the regular season with 167 rush yards and three touchdowns for an additional 2.31 FPPG. So he’s not a statue back there, but he certainly doesn’t have the rushing upside someone like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Jalen Hurts does. In those 6-point pass TD leagues, his path to becoming the consensus 1.01 is more realistic. At the same time, Mahomes was the consensus 1.01 in startups this past off-season and had a similar rushing upside to Stroud. Mahomes may have more upside in that department due to his creativity, but Stroud has the athleticism to get the first down with his legs when needed. 

Conclusion

For me, C.J. Stroud is now in that borderline “untouchable asset” territory in Dynasty Superflex leagues. The age and early NFL production make Stroud the type of player I want to build my fantasy teams around. While Stroud is undoubtedly one of the hottest assets to own heading into 2024, I think there’s a large percentage of leagues out there where you could pull off a trade where you send Hurts, Lamar, Herbert, or Burrow for Stroud +. I’d strongly consider sending those offers out to see if anyone bites. I would lean with Stroud over all those guys in Dynasty. He may be a slightly better real-life quarterback than he’ll ever be in fantasy, but he’s also a 22-year-old superstar who just posted the greatest rookie QB season ever. Stroud will be a force to be reckoned with in the NFL for the next decade. Trade for this man aggressively while you still can. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding