Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Green Bay Packers

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). We are so close to The Draft, we can almost taste it here at DFF. As Dynasty Managers, we need to evaluate all of the off-season transactions and think about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “off-season edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Green Bay Packers. 

STOCK UP – AMARI RODGERS

Wide receiver is a must-target position for the Packers entering the 2022 NFL Draft. They traded away their star receiver, Davante Adams, to Las Vegas about a month ago. They also watched Marquez Valdes-Scantling take his speed and talents to Kansas City shortly afterward. Not to mention, in an under-the-radar type of move, Equanemeous St. Brown left for Chicago as well. Green Bay decided to take a quiet approach in free agency to address the receiver position, but they did sign veteran Sammy Watkins to a one-year deal the other day. Entering the NFL Draft, they currently roster Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, a bunch of no-names, and AMARI RODGERS. 

Aside from the 31-year-old Cobb, Rodgers is the only receiver contracted beyond the 2022 season. He was drafted out of Clemson in the third round of last year’s draft. Green Bay traded away the 92nd and 135th overall picks to move up to 85th and select Rodgers. Although he didn’t see much time on the field last season, Rodgers showcases the skillset and frame of an ideal slot receiver in the NFL (5’9” and 212 lbs). Rodgers is listed one inch shorter than Cobb, but he weighs 20 more lbs. During his last season at Clemson, the tough slot receiver hauled in 77 receptions for 1,020 yards and seven touchdowns. The biggest takeaway you need to know is that he forced 17 missed tackles during his senior season. That ranked as the seventh most in the nation. 

You might be thinking, “Green Bay might draft a receiver in the first or second round.” That’s fine. They need help on the outside. I don’t think they feel comfortable going into the season with Watkins and Lazard slated as their only two (decent) outside receivers. Even if Cobb takes away opportunities from Rodgers at the beginning of the season, it’s only a matter of time when we see the Clemson product on the field for the majority of passing plays. In dynasty start-ups, he’s projected somewhere around the 18th round. If you’re already in an active league, his price is low for now. He’s worth throwing a mid-to-late round pick for. 

Other Notables: Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan

STOCK DOWN – AARON JONES

You have to know that some type of decline is approaching Aaron Jones sooner than later. He’s 27 years old, and A.J. Dillon keeps getting better and better. Jones signed a four-year extension worth up to $48M last offseason. Although he was productive in PPR leagues in 2021 (RB11), his rushing opportunities and numbers were possibly the worst of his career. He averaged 4.7 yards per attempt, which only tops his 2019 season. But he rushed for 12 more touchdowns during that season. Jones tied his career-low in rushing touchdowns (4), and he failed to receive 200 attempts for the first time since the 2018 season. In the meantime, Dillon went from receiving 46 attempts during his rookie season to 187 attempts last season (more than Jones, by the way). 

With the decline in attempts, you would expect Jones to see more opportunities as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Although he did snag a career-high six touchdown receptions, his numbers were around the same from his previous two seasons.

On the field, Jones is a dynamic player. He’s also highly talked about by the outside community. The problem is that most running backs who receive a large second contract don’t pan out. Let’s go through the two backs who have received massive second deals that have played through at least one season through their new deal (Jones’ current situation). Ezekiel Elliott just finished his second season under a six-year $90M deal. He played most of the season through injuries, averaged 4.2 yards per attempt, and put together his worst receiving season since 2017. Derrick Henry finished his second season under a four-year $50M contract. Although he showed dominance on the field, Henry only suited up for eight games (by far the least of his six-year career). Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Joe Mixon are currently in Jones’ situation, entering the second year of a massive extension. 

So what should we expect from Jones in 2022? He’s going to be one of the staples in this offense. He’ll be in on third downs, and he will get many looks inside the red zone. But you can expect Dillon’s carries to go up, which means less for Jones. Overall, he’s going to be a key pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he may turn in an RB1-type of the season again. History shows that is going to be a hard task for someone of his age and previous workloads. But it’s possible, especially if he’s limited with his touches like he was last season. If you want value in return for him, this is the time to trade him away.  

Other Notables: Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, Giants, Jaguars, Jets, Lions

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