Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Dallas Cowboys

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). We are just a few months away from all of the offseason madness, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Dallas Cowboys. 

STOCK UP – CeeDee Lamb

Amari Cooper has officially been traded to the Cleveland Browns. Dallas may find its wide receiver room a little thin as Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, and Malik Turner are set to hit free agency. If all three leave town, that would leave CeeDee Lamb, and…that’s about it at receiver. The other active receivers on the roster are Simi Fehoko, T.J. Vasher, Noah Brown, Robert Foster, and Brandon Smith. At tight end, the Cowboys made it apparent they wanted Schultz to stay on the team, as they franchise tagged him earlier in the week. Days after, we found out Blake Jarwin was cut to save some spending money. 

In nearly every scenario Lamb’s stock is rising heading into the 2022 season. Dallas could resign Gallup; they could resign Wilson; they could resign Turner. It doesn’t matter. We should all feel great about Lamb’s dynasty value, and it sure looks like a few of those names mentioned will be playing elsewhere in the fall. The big question is, “can Lamb produce WR1 numbers?” The answer to that is yes. We are talking about a former first-round pick that’s seen 110-plus targets in each of his first two seasons. He’s also topped 70 receptions and five receiving touchdowns in each as well. During his two-year career, he averages 7.2 targets, 4.8 receptions, 63.7 receiving yards, and just over 14 PPR points per game. 

Overshadowed by Justin Jefferson, Lamb may be the second-best receiver out of the 2020 class (Tee Higgins is in contention as well). If you snagged him in your rookie drafts in 2020, hold on for dear life. This could be the season that Lamb really takes off. We haven’t seen a big sample size of Lamb without Cooper. In his lone game played with Cooper sidelined, Lamb hauled in three receptions for 14 yards. But in eight games played without Gallup, Lamb averaged 6.6 targets, 4.5 receptions, 71.6 receiving yards, and he’s hauled in three touchdowns. The two-year pro has finished as the WR22 in 2020 and the WR15 respectively. Expect an uptick in production from Lamb this season, as he looks primed for a top-12 finish if he stays healthy. Currently, he’s ranked as our WR4 in dynasty rankings here at DFF. And he’s worth a first-round rookie draft pick if you can afford to swing it. 

Other Notables: Dalton Schultz, Simi Fehoko

STOCK DOWN – EZEKIEL ELLIOTT

It’s time. If you’re still defending Elliott as a long-term asset, you’re clearly not cut out to be a dynasty manager. Even if you are pushing for a championship run this season, trading for Elliott may not be worth the risk. He’s coming off a season where he averaged about 14.8 PPR points per game (the worst mark of his six-year career). The time to trade him should’ve been last offseason. If you held on, it’s understandable, but he can’t be relied on as an RB1 anymore. Reports have indicated that he was playing through injuries for much of the season. And if you watched Cowboys games in 2021, you could see Tony Pollard clearly was a better rusher than Elliott in most games. 

You have all this going on, and Elliott will more than likely still be used as a workhorse in 2022. For those of you Pollard worshipers, don’t get too excited. He’s going into his final season under contract, and Elliott’s deal expires in 2027. Dallas can’t afford to play Pollard over him entirely. Expect a similar approach as last year. Elliott received 284 touches in 17 games. Whereas Pollard received 169 in 15. Although Elliott has yet to finish as the RB12 or better, this may be the season where he finally finishes outside that mark. The reason why we should feel worse about Zeke this offseason in dynasty terms is because of his age and his declined play. 

He’s turning 27 in July, and there aren’t many running backs who produce RB1 numbers at that age. We went over it in the Buccaneers’ piece. Only four running backs have ever finished inside the top-12 in a season at the age of 27 or older (Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, Carlos Hyde, and David Johnson). If you can find a manager who owns a late-first-round pick in this year’s rookie draft, you could possibly trade away Zeke for that pick straight up. It’s going to be tough to move on from Elliott if you invested in him early, but his window is closing, and you might as well get a decent return for him while you can. This may be your last chance. 

Other Notables: Michael Gallup (UFA), Cedrick Wilson (UFA)

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Commanders

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