Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Detroit Lions

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). The big free agency splash moments are all but over, and the NFL Draft is approaching quickly. We, as dynasty managers, need to be evaluating these offseason transactions and thinking about our roster adjustments every day. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Detroit Lions. 

STOCK UP – TJ HOCKENSON

One of the better and more consistent tight ends in today’s game, Hockenson finds himself going into a contract season after back-to-back years with at least 60 receptions, 500-plus yards, and four touchdowns. Although he only played in 12 games in 2021, the third-year pro averaged just over 12 PPR points per game. 2020 was his breakout season (finished as the TE5), but he took strides in 2021 on a dysfunctional team. Hockenson played in the first 12 games of the season before suffering a hand injury that forced him to miss the remaining five games of the year. During that 12-game span, Detroit went 1-10-1, but the reliable pass-catcher was on pace to finish as the TE3 behind only Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. 

Here at DFF, we have Hockenson labeled as the TE6 in our SF/TEP Dynasty rankings. Names ahead of him include Darren Waller, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Kyle Pitts. He has a chance at climbing the ranks if he continues to dominate like he’s shown he’s capable of doing. Kelce is 32 years old, and it’s hard to imagine him producing the numbers he has been consistently for many more years. He’s Patrick Mahomes’ go-to target, but we don’t see many 32-year-olds producing TE1-like numbers anymore. Both Waller (29) and Kittle (28) are also getting up there in age. Hockenson is only 24 years old, and he’s going into his fourth season as a pro. 

On top of that, he’s the most skilled pass-catcher on the Lions. Sure, Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great final few weeks of the season, but he did most of his damage once Hockenson went down with his hand injury. In Weeks 1-13 when he played alongside the prolific pass-catching tight end, St. Brown hauled in a combined 49 receptions for 438 yards and one touchdown. In Weeks 14-18 without Hockenson, he produced 41 receptions, 474 yards, and four touchdowns. Detroit also saw flashes from Quintez Cephus, Kalif Raymond, and Josh Reynolds throughout the season. And they went out and signed DJ Chark Jr. as well, but let’s not overcomplicate things. Hockenson is the top pass-catcher in this offense. The 24-year-old has a bright future, and he’s going to serve as a TE1 type of player for a very long time. 

Other Notables: D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown

STOCK DOWN – DJ CHARK JR.

Some Lions fans became overjoyed when they heard that Detroit signed Chark Jr. to a one-year deal. If you look at the chart above, it’s hard to get excited about his future. After barely sniffing the field during his rookie season, Chark Jr. broke out during his sophomore campaign in 2019. The numbers are impressive, but fantasy managers don’t see the inconsistency rates that follow. After hauling in at least 4 receptions and 44 yards in the first five weeks of that season, Chark Jr. failed to do so in seven of his next 10 games. After Week 5, his fantasy numbers were predicated on touchdowns and splash plays. Now let’s take a look at his 2020 season. He missed three games due to injury, but in the 13 games played, Chark Jr. hauled in only 57 percent of his targets, and he averaged about four receptions and 54 receiving yards per game. He watched his touchdown total drop to five on the season as well. 

Last season, many were optimistic that Chark Jr. would bounce back in a wide receiver room that included him, Marvin Jones Jr., Jamal Agnew, Laquon Treadwell, and Leviska Shanult Jr. Although he played in only four games, we saw the same old Chark Jr., a fantasy player that was predicated on big plays and touchdown receptions. He only hauled in 32 percent of his targets, and in his four-year career, he’s snagging about 55.5 percent. To give context to that low number, I’ll compare that number to only Lions pass-catchers. St. Brown hauled in 75.6 percent of his targets as a rookie. Raymond has snagged 66.3 percent in his limited role as a five-year pro. Hockenson has hauled in 65.6 percent in four seasons. Even Cephus (61.4 percent) and Reynolds (56.8 percent) haul in a better percentage than Chark Jr. Proving that he has been over-targeted during his four seasons as a pro. 

Don’t get me wrong, Chark Jr. will likely serve as one of the starting outside receivers for this team in 2022. But if he couldn’t produce WR4 type of numbers during the last two seasons with Jacksonville, what makes you think he will for this Detroit team? St. Brown is an ascending receiver in this league. As mentioned above, Hockenson is one of the more dominant pass-catching tight ends in the NFL right now. And the trio of Reynolds, Raymond, and Cephus will be heavily involved in this offense. To make matters worse for Chark Jr., both Swift and Jamaal Williams are above average pass-catchers out of the backfield. They combined for 88 receptions last season. This is also a team that will want to run the ball more than pass it. Sure, they’re usually trailing, which leads to more passing, but you get the point. It’s hard imagining Chark Jr. producing good enough numbers this season to where we, as fantasy managers, become more optimistic for his future. The time to trade him was after his 2019 season, but there are still managers who believe in him. And to those that do, good luck. 

Other Notables: Jared Goff, Quintez Cephus

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Colts, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers, Giants, Jaguars, Jets

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