Rookie Analysis
@force_fantasy uses his WR1 model to determine who has better odds of NFL success between Troy Franklin and Adonai Mitchell.
In this edition of “Tale of the Tape”, @force_fantasy breaks down some advanced metrics to help you decide between Ja’Lynn Polk and Xavier Legette in your upcoming rookie drafts.
Continuing his “Rookie Rewind” series, @Justin_Massie_ discusses dynasty value for the 2023 wide receiver class.
A rookie rewind is a way of gauging the value change of rookies from pre-season to post-season. It not only discusses the value change but also examines why the value changed. All of the quarterback value data comes from KeepTradeCut, as it crowdsources information in real time. Many of the statistics are sourced from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
@force_fantasy breaks down an early 2024 mock draft while providing additional context for the players you will be looking at for your Dynasty rookie drafts.
Within the domain of Dynasty Fantasy Football, where knights of the digital gridiron seek everlasting glory, there exists a hidden treasure that can transform mere contenders into champions: the discovery of rookies brimming with untapped potential. Much like fabled quests for hidden and enchanted artifacts, uncovering these budding stars is an endeavor that can elevate your Dynasty team to unparalleled heights. In order to identify the potential diamonds, there are subtle and compelling signs that a burgeoning star is being prepared for a more significant role with their team. These signs are akin to whispers in the wind, revealing the potential for greatness in the making.
The date was December 2, 2017. West Virginians descended on Wheeling Island Stadium for the Class AAA state championship game. Defending state champion Martinsburg was set to take on Spring Valley. Led by quarterback Tyson Bagent, Martinsburg had won 27 straight games. Bagent threw for 232 yards leading Martinsburg to a 44-16 victory and its second straight state title. The Bulldogs finished the year ranked No. 19 in USA Today’s Super 25 national high school football rankings. Bagent finished the season with 3,199 yards, and 41 touchdowns and ran for eight more. He had an impressive 72% completion rate and would go on to win the Gatorade State Player of the Year award.
The anticipation of the very first game of the NFL season was apparent. Me and my kids made sure to have everything done in the house before the game came on and they even got to watch a little before going to bed. But I’m sure that it was the same for many longing for the return of football. We got to see the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. And while that was the main draw, fantasy managers may have had their eyes on a different part of the game as did NFL betting enthusiasts in Michigan.
With the preseason just one short week away, it’s almost time to see these rookies take the field and prove their worth. One subject of debate is which rookie wide receiver will emerge as the top producer in Year 1. In the dynasty community, the overwhelming consensus is that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the clear rookie WR1. But for Redraft, BestBall, or even Dynasty owners putting all their chips in for 2023, who should be bet on as the top producer in Year 1? I’m here to break down some numbers and answer that question.
Originally a four-star EDGE defender recruit coming out of high school, Cameron Latu signed with Alabama in 2018 and redshirted. During the latter half of the 2019 season, Latu navigated a position change from EDGE to TE. His first two seasons of statistics are, thus, left out of his collegiate production below. Latu played in 12 games as a reserve for the 2020 National Champion Crimson Tide but did not record any receptions. In 2021, he beat out Jahleel Billingsley and other highly-touted TE recruits to earn the starting TE position for the Tide. He started 14 in 2021, catching 26 passes for 410 yards and eight TDs (Alabama TE record). He started 11 games for Alabama in 2022, grabbing 30 receptions for 377 yards and four TDs.
It’s been some time since I put pen to paper per se, but I’ve been playing actor and director, focusing most of my energy on building up the Dynasty Football Factory YouTube page. So I’m dusting off the keyboard and dropping a few film-based dynasty rookie sleepers and fades.
Typically, draft capital provides prospects a great degree of insulation for playing time and job security. If there is one thing we know about the Shanahans and running backs, they will give anyone a chance if they can play.
Zach Evans was drafted by the Los Angeles Rams, becoming the 15th Running Back and 215th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Sean Tucker went undrafted, signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a UDFA.
Will McDonald IV was drafted by the New York Jets, becoming the fourth Edge Rusher and the 15th overall player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Jonathan Mingo was drafted by the Carolina Panthers,, becoming the fifth Wide Receiver and 39th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Devon Achane was drafted by the Miami Dolphins, becoming the sixth Running Back and 84th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Tyjae Spears was drafted by the Tennessee Titans, becoming the fifth running back and 81st overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Felix Anudike-Uzomah was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs, becoming the seventh Edge Rusher and the 31st overall player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Nathaniel Dell was drafted by the Houston Texans, becoming the ninth wide receiver and 69th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft. Nathaniel “Tank” Dell put up video game numbers for the Cougars. In his sophomore year, he posted 1329 yards and 12 touchdowns. In his junior year, he exploded for 1398 yards and 17 touchdowns. His 21.1 career college fantasy points per game were second in this class. He also posted excellent results in key predictive metrics for future fantasy success like receiving yards per team pass attempt (2.90) and college-weighted dominator (36.2%).
Andrei Iosivas was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals, becoming the 26th wide receiver and 206th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft. Iosivas posted 703 yards and five touchdowns as a junior. He followed that up with 943 yards and seven touchdowns his senior year. Iosivas’s level of competition was poor but he did put up solid predictive metric results. He had a 40.8% college weighted dominator to go along with a 2.70 receiving yard per team pass attempt. Both are in the top 10 in this class.
Marvin Mims was drafted by the Denver Broncos, becoming the eighth Wide Receiver and 63rd overall player in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Luke Musgrave was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, becoming the fourth Tight End and 42nd overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Lukas Van Ness was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, becoming the third Edge Rusher and 13th overall player selected in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Luke Schoonmaker was drafted by the Dallas Cowboys, becoming the fifth Tight End and 58th overall player in the 2023 NFL Draft.