The NFL Draft is just hours away, but there’s no stopping me when it comes to analyzing rookies. Wide receivers have been the most discussed positional group over the last few months, and for good reason. This class is incredibly deep at the position, so even guys outside of the top 10 can’t be ignored. But Keon Coleman (WR – FSU) is a rookie wide receiver that I just can’t get behind and goes too early in Dynasty rookie mock drafts. While he is not at the top of the list of elite wide receivers in this class, I believe he has a favorable chance of being selected in the 2nd Round of the NFL Draft based on what I have read from many credible NFL Analysts. I think Keon Coleman should be avoided at his current ADP of 2.06 in Dynasty rookie drafts, per Sleeper.
Keon Coleman will enter the NFL after playing two seasons with Michigan State and completing his junior year at Florida State. At 6’4″ and 215 pounds, he has the body type of an ideal wide receiver. In 2023, he caught 50 balls for 658 receiving yards, including 11 touchdowns, and averaged 13.2 yards per catch. Keon was once regarded as a near first-round Dynasty rookie pick, but some red flags have emerged.
Yards Per Route Run
Yards per route run is a metric that has been a key indicator of a wide receiver’s success. Abbreviated YPRR, it’s the amount of receiving yards caught divided by the number of routes the receiver has run. This combines multiple metrics, as it accounts for earned targets by the receiver while also showing what the receiver can achieve on each target. An ideal YPRR metric I look for in receivers is any number over 3.00, as this tracks at around the 90th percentile amongst college wide receivers. Keon Coleman’s YPRR in his 2023 season at Florida State is 1.74. This is far from ideal, landing at about the 40th percentile, and is reflected in his stats as he failed to reach even 700 yards. This can’t be blamed on the Jordan Travis injury, as he played a full 10 games before he suffered a broken leg on November 18th, 2023.
Reception Perception
Route running and the ability to win a route are also important metrics for successful NFL wide receivers. Per Reception Perception, a tool created by Matt Harmon that analyzes WR route success rates, one of the most successful route runners in this class is Rome Odunze (WR – Washington), posting an 80% success or above in 9 out of 11 route types analyzed. Keon Coleman, on the other hand, had a less-than-desirable route tree. For context, Rome Odunze ran a successful route on 60.8% on a “Nine” route, essentially running vertically down the field. This is one of the toughest routes to be successful on, as it’s typically a deep ball with a high-risk, high-reward outcome. Keon posted a 37.8% success rate on this same route. He was below the average success rate on 7 of the 11 route types that were analyzed.
Contested-Catch Rate
Big receivers like Keon Coleman, who is 6’4″, are highly sought after because they can have an advantage over a typical cornerback or other member of the secondary. This is measured by what’s called a contested catch rate – how many catchable balls the receiver caught while being contested by the defense. Contested catches always have to be taken with a grain of salt because there is an ambiguity on what the actual metrics are to be able to call a pass a “contested catch”. PFF has developed its own metrics and assigned rates to each receiver. Per PFF, Coleman had 30 contested catch opportunities in the 2023 season. He only caught 10 of them, giving him about a 33% contested catch rate. If you have noticed the trend, this is another important metric for big receivers, and Keon lands slightly below the 25th percentile compared to other WRs with 50+ targets.
The stats show that Keon Coleman is subpar in important metrics like yards per route run. He was largely unsuccessful compared to others in route running, and he is far below average at contested catches. This, combined with his unimpressive stats in 2023, leaves me questioning what NFL scouts are seeing on film that are putting him as a second-round draft pick. Some other receivers can get away with low metrics in these categories if they can make it up with speed, but Coleman ran a 4.61 40-yard dash. I will be avoiding him at his ADP of 2.06 in Dynasty rookie drafts even if he gets high draft capital, and I won’t even consider taking him until the third round.
Thanks for reading, leave me your thoughts and comments on this article @FFBirdGang on Twitter/X. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
