Dynasty Analysis
Now, if you’re not careful you may subconsciously find yourself thinking Ebron’s name has been a topic of conversation for quite a while now. Which, consequently, must mean he’s… you know… old. Well, at just 27 years of age, he’s not placeable in that category quite yet. One thing I don’t want to do is discount Vance McDonald and his ability to contribute, in a real-football-sense, to this ball club. He’s a terrific player in his own right and I genuinely think he’s a quality asset to any organization. Nonetheless, Eric Ebron walks into that locker room as the unquestioned TE1 with some pretty monster upside, especially in the touchdown department.
2019 was a banner year for rookie edge defenders. Several more break-out performances from players that fantasy gamers had left for dead combine with the rookies good depth to the EDGE position. The position mirrors the wide-receiver position in that there are more strong, steady options than ever and plenty of depth for those with the stomach to play match-ups.
In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at their 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy.
Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Dede Westbrook. Let’s jump right in!
Stefon Diggs joined the Minnesota Vikings in 2015 as a 5th-round pick. Since then, he has produced four top-30 fantasy finishes in five seasons, including a WR10 finish in 2018.
The shovel is back! My favorite article series returns once again. If you don’t already know, I figuratively bury fantasy players and their redraft stock. You can find all my previous work in this series at the bottom of the page. Unfortunately, the grim reaper has come for Emmanuel Sanders. He’s had a great career, but his time is up. Also, to jump out in front of the potential backlash, I want to make sure you don’t hear what I’m not saying in this article. Sanders was an exceptional real-life and fantasy wide receiver for many years. He had a stellar NFL career and deserves nothing but praise for his perseverance.
Joey and Nick Bosa are both amazing talents with nearly identical profiles. Joey is a known commodity with a little extra size, and his production is proven. He knows he’ll be playing in Los Angeles through his prime and is a model IDP asset…
Potentially more than ever, Jarvis Landry finds his way into any and every conversation revolving around the notion of buying low in a dynasty setting. Just days after the Browns placed the WR on the active/PUP list, Old Tom has a feeling you’re going to find a few owners a little concerned. The good news, however, is that this was always part of the plan. As reported, the team has indicated there have been no setbacks and Jarvis should be ready in time for that week 1 showdown with the high-flying Ravens. With that cleared up, Old Tom has always had a sweet spot for Mr. Landry.
Lamar Jackson was selected with the last pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. He was drafted after Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen at the quarterback position. Prior to being drafted in the first round, Lamar Jackson was a prolific quarterback for the Louisville Cardinals earning the Heisman Award in his true sophomore season. Jackson threw for over 9,000 yards to go with 69 TDs versus 27 interceptions. Jackson was truly electric rushing the ball, having two seasons with over 1,500 yards, finishing with over 4,000 yards and 50 TDs in his three collegiate seasons.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Now, I want to take a look at Jamison Crowder. My friend @DocFFN recently wrote a free dynasty profile on Crowder, but I wanted to look at Crowder’s redraft prospects. I also wanted to take more of a long-form approach, as the dynasty free profiles are quick-hitters. Anyway, Crowder might play for the hapless Jets, but I think he deserves some attention as a sleeper for 2020 PPR redraft leagues. Let’s get into why.
The moon has not completed a single orbit around the earth since the Washington Football Team scandal broke, as over a dozen female former employees had alleged ‘Football Team’ executives of sexual harassment. New Head Coach, Ron Rivera took the podium and announced his and the team’s displeasure in the findings, and lead the charge to right the ship. Twenty-two days later, on a day where the twitter community believed that the big news of the day was the distasteful comments by an analyst at a prominent company, we were shocked bythe reporting of Derrius Guice’s arrest of domestic violence, assault and battery, and destruction of property. Again, with Ron Rivera at the helm ‘Football Team’ made the swift decision to release the 23-year old running back.
Seasonal (redraft) ranks will appear in article form this year at Dynasty Football Factory. The IDP ranks in spreadsheet form are and will remain for a dynasty format. I’ll update these dynasty ranks year-round, thus making available a rare resource for IDP gamers. I, myself, was always on the hunt for current dynasty ranks for start-up and dispersal drafts for IDP leagues before I started writing.
You know, it never fails to leave Old Tom speechless every time I venture back to different draft classes and re-examine the selections. In 2017, for example, amongst WRs so many were so sure that the Titans, Chargers, and Bengals struck gold with their top-10 WR. Now, to each individual’s credit, while they may not have matched or exceeded expectations. But, they are still participating… and at relatively high levels from time to time. However, when you come off the board at 5, 7, & 9 respectively, the football community simply expects so much more. With that said, let’s talk about that #9 selection out of the University of Washington. Mr. John Ellis Ross III. You know, that 5’11 194lb burner that set the unofficial record with his 4.22-second forty-yard dash. Ya, that guy.
Brandin Cooks was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Cooks was a part-time player as a rookie, but he really broke out in his sophomore season, going over 1,100 receiving yards and scoring nine TDs. That 2015 campaign was the beginning of a four-year stretch in which Cooks never finished worse than the WR15. He also topped 115 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in each of those seasons despite playing for three different teams. In 2019, Cooks’ streak of dominance came to an end. He appeared in 14 games for the Rams but finished with career-lows in receptions and TDs as he spent the majority of the season battling concussion issues.
This is a new buy/sell/hold series that I will be diving into for dynasty formats. In this piece I’ll be going through some screaming buys I’m seeing as I look through recent ADP.
I believe that now is the perfect time to strike and acquire shares of Samuel in your dynasty league. Once he returns to the lineup and demonstrates that he’s healthy, his price will rise. This Jones fracture is a short-term injury, and it shouldn’t dramatically decrease Samuel’s value. Even so, dynasty owners tend to overreact, and I’ve noticed a drop in Samuel’s trade value and his ADP. Buy on that dip, because this injury is a blip on the long-term radar. Samuel is only 24 years old and he has his whole career ahead of him. Most rookie wide receivers don’t show half of what Samuel showed in his rookie year, and this is a chance to get in on a stellar dynasty asset at his basement value.
No doubt, you probably had to double back to make sure this was a “buy-low” column. Don’t worry, Old Tom fully understands your confusion. I’ll say this, your potential shock factor is going to be off the charts when you get to number one. See, here’s something I always like to remember. The phrase “buying low” is of course a relative one. Given Old Tom’s self-proclaimed foundation of simplicity and subjectivity, I enjoy a good bit of relativism from time to time. With that said, Marquise Brown is an individual I feel is well worth his current price, as it will rise much higher in the coming months and consequently years.
Dynasty owners don’t want to invest in Kelce at his current cost of a third-round startup pick and the dynasty TE2. However, if you’re a contender, Kelce is worth far more to your team than what you could recoup for him in a trade. He’s tied to Mahomes for the foreseeable future, although his contract does expire after 2021. I expect the Chiefs to retain Kelce throughout his career, though, as he’s Mahomes’ favorite weapon. Tight ends can produce into their mid-to-late 30s, and I don’t see any reason why Kelce won’t be a part of that group. If you sold Tony Gonzalez in dynasty leagues before his age-31 season, you would have been very sorry, and I believe Kelce is the same type of transcendent player. Therefore, I wouldn’t seek to trade him off my roster unless I’m in a deep and long-term rebuild.
The Cowboys selected Pollard in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Memphis. Coming into the NFL, most analysts saw Pollard as a dynamic receiving threat, and as a passing-down complement to starter Ezekiel Elliott. However, during Elliott’s contract holdout before the 2019 season, the Cowboys made it clear that Pollard was Elliott’s direct backup. Pollard’s redraft and dynasty value soared as Elliott was in danger of missing games due to his contract situation.
Darnold hasn’t been a usable fantasy quarterback in his first two NFL seasons. The Jets picked Darnold with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and he immediately won the Week 1 starting job. However, the 2018 Jets lacked receiving weapons, and Darnold couldn’t overcome that obstacle as a rookie. There were a couple of bright spots in Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and rookie tight end Chris Herndon, but none of them were star players. The team fired head coach Todd Bowles after a 4-12 season.
What we’ve seen over and over again in this league is that teams seem to have the most success when they can capitalize on a rookie quarterback treaty. Coupling this reality with one just as obvious is the fact that Darnold has had some pretty unimpressive weapons throughout his time in New York. This is still a work in progress. But, make no mistake about it, progress has been made. While the loss of Robby Anderson hurts, the addition of Breshad Perriman coupled with the drafting of Denzel Mims should more than make up for said departure. Also, worth noting is both Bell’s second year in the system as well as (finger’s crossed) the return of Chris Herndon at tight end.
From the start, I want to say that this will be a completely different type of article. You’re not going to hear about numbers or stats in this one. Instead, I’m going to take you through what I learned as a dynasty owner and analyst throughout the 2019 season.
Past Production Year Games Targets Receptions Yards TDs Fantasy Finish …
One thing Old Tom always likes to do is open up the lines of communication, with league mates, to see what their asking price is for those “aging vets”. This becomes, all the more imperative when said veteran players find themselves in less than desirable positions. Or, in Mr. White’s case, they find themselves all of a sudden void of one Tom Brady. Now, we go buy. The thing about 28-year-old running backs is, they aren’t THAT old, in the grand scheme of things. At least in Old Tom’s eyes. The thing about 28-year-old running backs who have made their mark primarily catching the ball and on 3rd downs is, they are even less old than potentially perceived. Call this a hot take, if you will, but I just firmly believe that regardless of how that New England QB position unfolds in 2020 it’s almost irrelevant to what James White is going to bring to the table.
The league-altering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have now significantly hurt the IDP world of fantasy football, as a consensus LB2 in C.J. Mosley just became the biggest name on the defensive side of the football to take the NFL’s opt-out alternative to the 2020 season. Mosley joins Patriots’ linebacker Dont’a Hightower and safety Patrick Chung as the only rosterable IDPs to have opted out before the season, outside of deeper leagues. This is a monumental blow to the New York Jets’ defense as well.
The Chiefs selected Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft as the long-term successor to incumbent starter Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes sat on the bench for almost the entire season, only playing Week 17 while Smith rested for the playoffs. After the 2017 season, the Chiefs decided to trade Smith to the Redskins, opening the door for Mahomes as the definite 2018 starting quarterback.