Rookie Stock Market: Week 13

It’s here folks, the fantasy playoffs are officially upon us. Since we are in playoff mode, I have decided to add a little playoff spin to each player I address here. In addition to the usual stuff, I will add a quick Week 14 playoff blurb too. Let’s get into it!

Risers

Cam Akers – RB Rams

Week 13 Snap Shot

This marks two weeks in a row that Cam Akers has made it into the “Risers” section. That’s a good look, especially for a rookie that had a relatively rocky start to the season. Week 13 brought Akers a season-high in total yardage, touches, and snap %. In addition to the increased workload, Week 13 marks the third week in a row that Akers has found his way into the end zone. The increase in usage could be attributed to Darrell Henderson Jr. briefly leaving the game with a knee injury, but nonetheless, it is great to see the second-round pick finally get a real workload and look good doing so. I think what is most noteworthy from Week 13 is the usage of Malcolm Brown. Despite Henderson going down with a knee injury, Malcolm Brown saw a season-low in snap rate with just 16%. Does this mark the end of an era? Has Sean McVay finally realized Brown has no juice? Did he finally take a look at box scores and see Malcolm Brown’s longest run on the year is for 19 yards? I think the past few weeks, Akers has proven his worth, and McVay and company are ready to truly get him involved in the offense. 

Week 14 Playoff Spin

By the time you read this TNF will have already happened, but I am writing this before the game so I am giving you my thoughts anyway. I believe a realistic projection for Akers in Week 14 is ~50% snap rate and ~10 PPR points. Henderson seems to be healthy, considering he returned to the game and scored a TD, but Akers should still have a noticeable role against the Patriots on TNF. I expect 10-15 touches for Akers and his TD upside is pretty high considering his last three weeks. Akers is flex worthy in Week 14, but don’t count on a big outing as the LAR backfield is still a very difficult one to predict.

Lynn Bowden Jr. – RB/WR Dolphins

Week 13 Snap Shot

I have been waiting far too long to write this! I have been high on Lynn Bowden since pre-draft. He is a true “do-it-all” athlete, as he was a productive WR in 2018, then a truly dominant force as QB/RB in 2019 when he led the SEC in rushing yards. After being drafted by the Raiders in the third round, I expected him to be a third-down back and slot receiver in Las Vegas after they quickly named him a running back. However, in early September the Raiders traded Bowden Jr. to the Dolphins, a surprising move, as I cannot think of a time where a rookie was this close to the beginning of the regular season.

To start the season Lynn Bowden Jr. was used almost exclusively as a Wildcat player, seeing just four carries and one target until his Week 13 mini-breakout. With Malcolm Perry inactive in Week 13, Bowden Jr. was finally given a chance and he made the most of it. Despite playing fewer snaps than a healthy Perry did in Week 11, Lynn produced 52 total yards on under 50% of the total stats. This is leaps and bounds better than Perry’s best game of 23 total yards on 78% snap share. As someone who has several Lynn Bowden Jr. shares, I hope that this is a changing of the guard, making Bowden now the starting slot WR and gadget player for the Miami Dolphins.

Starting Slot WR for the Dolphins doesn’t sound super sexy, but when you remember Tua is the QB of the future in Miami the upside could be much worse. Another thing I love about Bowden is his ability as a rusher. When you consider that Bowden Jr. rushed for 7.4 YPC while at Kentucky, it makes you wonder if Myles Gaskin (college YPC of 5.6) and Salvon Ahmed (college YPC of 5.7) are the best options at RB for the Dolphins? I am not predicting Bowden becomes the Dolphins lead back, but I do think the coaching staff should really consider scheming him at least a few jet sweeps and carries a game, a la Deebo Samuel. Lynn Bowden Jr.’s value has taken a slight rise but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it continues to rise as the season comes to an end.

Week 14 Playoff Spin

I would only play Bowden Jr. if I was super desperate. His best game of the year only scored 9.2 PPR points so it is hard to project his absolute high-end score more than ~12 PPR points this week. I think it is far more likely he scores less than 5 points than it is he scores more than 10 points. Bowden is only a last-ditch effort flex play if you are VERY desperate.

Fallers

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB Chiefs

Week 13 Snap Shot

This go-around is all on Andy Reid and the Chiefs organization as a whole. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) was listed as questionable with an illness all week but was then active come game-time. I am sure I am not the only one who then decided to start CEH after seeing he was listed as active. We then all slapped ourselves after he didn’t play a single snap; I played him knowing game-flow could have easily diminished his production, but I 100% expected him to take some snaps and at least score me a couple of points. Week 13 will leave a sour taste in almost everyone’s mouths, and just this alone will cause a slight drop in value and hesitation in playing him in the playoffs.

Week 14 Playoff Spin

CEH has been removed from the Chief’s injury report, so all signs point to Clyde will ACTUALLY playing this week. Still, though, I only consider him as a high-risk high reward RB3 or Flex play this week. If you have been following this series all year, you will know that CEH has been both a riser and faller often this year. Use discretion if playing Edwards-Helaire this week, he could score you anywhere between 2 and 28 points this week against Miami.

Antonio Gibson – RB Washington Football Team

Similar to CEH, Gibson being a faller has nothing to do with him as a player but the events that unfolded in Week 13. During the first drive of the game, Antonio Gibson left the game and never returned. He is now listed as doubtful for Week 14 with a toe injury. Gibson has exceeded expectations this year, but his lack of availability for the playoffs will not be forgotten.

Week 14 Playoff Spin

All signs point to Gibson being out for Week 14; a turf toe is typically not an injury that players recover from quickly. If Antonio Gibson is however active this week I still would be very hesitant to play him as his workload would almost certainly be limited. If Gibson is inactive, J.D. McKissic is a good play (78% snap rate last week), especially in PPR considering his pass-catching upside.

Buy

Lynn Bowden Jr. – RB/WR Dolphins

As I mentioned previously, Bowden’s value has taken a bit off a rise, but this should not deter you from going after him. Before last week, you could have acquired Bowden for a fourth or even off the waiver wire. Even after a good week, his price of admission is still worth the upside. I believe Bowden should now be the starting slot receiver moving forward for the Dolphins, and with Tua Tagovailoa now the QB, that is an intriguing position to be in, especially considering you can probably still acquire Bowden for a late third or even a fourth-round pick. I love acquiring day two draft capital with great college production, and when you consider the acquisition cost, it seems like a no brainer to me. Send out cheap offers for Bowden Jr. now and thank me later.

Sell

James Robinson – RB Jaguars

Same old, same old here. Since the beginning of the season, Robinson has been a frequent flyer on the “Sell” list. If you aren’t in the playoffs, now is the perfect time to trade Robinson. Those in the playoffs should hold on for now though. Check out last week’s article for a little more insight.

Thanks for the read, and best of luck to those of you in the playoffs! You can follow me @RookieWhisper for more content.