Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 13
Like Icarus, we maybe flew too close to the sun during our hot streak and got a little cute with our picks last week. Won’t happen again. Let’s close out the year strong!
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 19-20
Longshot: 0-13
Nyheim Hines Anytime Touchdown (+135)
The Raiders’ defense has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns this year, good for second-most in the league. While Jonathan Taylor is a favorite to score at -106 odds, I would rather take the plus odds on his teammate Nyheim Hines to score in this game. While Taylor leads the team in rushing touchdowns (5) on the year, Hines leads the team in overall touchdowns with 3 rushing and 4 receiving. He’s also received a much steadier stream of redzone touches in the past four weeks.
Todd Gurley Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Todd Gurley has laid two clunkers in his past two outings, rushing for 16 and 26 yards in his last two games against the New Orleans Saints. However, Falcons interim coach Raheem Morris has said that they were playing it situationally with Gurley while he managed an injury. This week, Gurley is said to be feeling healthier and ready to manage a full workload.
The Chargers have a fearsome pass rush, but have been susceptible to the run all season. With a total this low, you almost have to bet on the feature back.
Cole Kmet Over 2.5 Receptions (+125)
I think last week’s matchup against Detroit should provide a good framework of what to expect from the Bears this week as they face a similar team (strong offense, weak defense) in the Houston Texans. Rookie tight end Cole Kmet had a mini-breakout in that game, posting a season-high in receptions and targets. He has overtaken Jimmy Graham in snap percentage since Week 10 and seems to be the team’s primary tight end moving forward.
It’s a higher total with some plus-odds, so feel free to stay wary of this pick. But, Kmet is trending in the right direction for this to be a great value pick this Sunday.
Week 14 Longshot Pick
Laviska Shenault Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+300)
I’m done doing analysis on these. This is a decent shot. Feel free to take it.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
