Dynasty Analysis
Well, that was a weird week. Did we just have two Monday Night Football games and a week four bye? Why yes… yes we did. In all honesty, props to the NFL for getting that Chiefs vs. Patriots rescheduled for Monday night. That game certainly caused a good number of fantasy commissioners to scramble for backup plans and contingency scenarios. Now hopefully we will continue to get good news about the Titans containing the COVID outbreak that left us (read: me) without Derrick Henry last week. Regularly scheduled bye weeks are upon us, which means the pool of legitimate starting players is shrinking even more. Time to get to trading. Check out who we’re buying and selling after the first four weeks of the season.
In a surprising-to-some but expected-to-many outcome, the Washington Football team, led by Coach Riviera, has moved on from their 2019 1st round QB Dwayne Haskins. The preseason clearance of former Pro Bowl QB Alex Smith and the trade for Kyle Allen, who replaced Cam Newton in Carolina last year under Ron Riviera, meant that Haskins owners should’ve been hoping for a far better start to the season than what the Rose Bowl MVP and Ohio State Alumn has given us.
Last week we took a look at Jordan Akins who was headed to a breakout week before suffering a concussion against the Vikings. He should still be widely available if you need a tight end. This week we will be diving into a wide receiver on a team with a ton of potential. This week’s dynasty sleeper is Isaiah Ford. The 7th round pick in 2017 has carved out a nice little role in the Miami Dolphins offense at the beginning of the 2020 season. According to MyFantasyLeague, he is only owned in 20% of leagues, so it shouldn’t be hard to attain Isaiah Ford at his current price.
What can you say about this team? Although they initially struggled to put away a depleted Patriots team, they are 4-0 and chances are if you have two of these guys on your team… so are you. Mahomes is the QB5 on the season averaging 27 PPG. But the consistently high weeks are why he is the QB1 overall. He is a plug-and-play each week starter. His rock Travis Kelce at tight end is TE2 on the season but we can expect that to change back to him being the TE1 as the season goes on.
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads. How about a little Thursday night action to get us started?
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation. If you’re the Nick Chubb owner, you definitely need to be reading this. D’Ernest Johnson is on just about every waiver wire and really showed he can produce in Chubb’s absence. Johnson took 13 carries for 95 yards and is surely in line for a similar workload going forward. Reports indicate Chubb’s MCL injury will keep him sidelined for several weeks so this isn’t just a one-week solution.
Chargers’ running back Austin Ekeler suffered a severe hamstring injury in their Week 4 game versus the Buccaneers. Ekeler had played well in 2020 before his injury, especially once the Chargers switched to rookie Justin Herbert at quarterback from Tyrod Taylor. In Week 3, Ekeler had 11 receptions on 11 targets for 84 yards, and he ran for 59 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Ekeler wasn’t quite the reliable PPR RB1 some had hoped for, but he was a reliable fantasy asset before his injury. Now, he will likely miss a minimum of four weeks. However, I have serious concerns that Ekeler could be gone even longer than that. The Chargers recently signed Ekeler to a 4-year, $24.5 million contract, so they will want to protect their investment in him for the long-term. They currently sit at 1-3, and losing Ekeler will severely hurt their offense.
Upon completion of one-quarter of the NFL season, we have enough evidence to conclude who players are and how they fit into their respective defenses. Players who we know are good finally made good on their preseason promise. Bengals’ RB Joe Mixon and Broncos’ EDGE Bradley Chubb reminded us why we drafted them. On the other hand, we should accept that Cardinals’ RB Kenyan Drake and Raiders’ LB Cory Littleton won’t be the studs that fuel our rosters in 2020.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage. I also want to provide added value for each type of streamer this season. I’ll highlight any players from 50-60% owned in each section if they’re superior options to both of my streaming candidates at that specific position. Those players are “probably owned,” but they could be out there in 10-team or shallower formats. I won’t offer analysis on these players, just the names and matchups.
If neither of my two suggested streamers is under 25% ownership percentage, I will give a “super-deep” option. That feature should help those owners playing in deeper leagues with few waiver-wire options. Like the “probably owned” players, I’ll list the players without analysis. I realize that all leagues are different, and I want to accommodate all of my readers.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues.
Dallas Goedert was placed on IR after reportedly fracturing his ankle. The Eagles run two tight end sets 59% of the time! That’s over 29% more than any other team. This isn’t even a matter of talent, but opportunity. He’s also good insurance with the injury bug going around. Rodgers caught three of four targets in Week 4 but could certainly snag a touchdown and become a viable fantasy option.
During the Browns’ Week 4 49-38 victory over the Cowboys, star running back Nick Chubb suffered an MCL injury. A Cowboys’ player rolled up on him from behind, causing the injury. At the time, Chubb was rolling, with six carries for 43 yards. Honestly, this injury must feel extremely disappointing for Chubb. He struggled through an awful ACL tear in college, which severely hurt his draft stock. However, since that injury in 2015, Chubb has remained practically completely healthy. He played every single game from 2016-2019 throughout two years at Georgia and two years in the NFL.
The Jets selected Herndon out of Miami in the fourth round of the 2018 NFL Draft. At the time, the Jets had recently selected Sam Darnold as their new franchise quarterback. Darnold had relatively few reliable weapons, especially at tight end. Therefore, Herndon jumped into the offense as a starter almost from the beginning of his rookie year. Head coach Todd Bowles employed a base 11 personnel offense, with Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Jermaine Kearse as their three receivers. However, Herndon played a critical role as one of their underneath targets, finishing behind the three receivers in targets as the fourth target on the team.
The Raiders selected Renfrow in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Clemson. At the time, the Raiders had Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams as their primary outside receivers, but they didn’t have any underneath or over the middle weapons. Tight end Darren Waller eventually emerged as their top target, but we didn’t know that when they picked Renfrow.
This article is another one of my more fluffy pieces. I did one last week on the life of a fantasy football creator, where I talked about some of the challenges of writing and creating content in this space. Now, I want to step into a different arena. Let’s talk about something that rarely gets mentioned, but I feel it is essential. There are two kinds of fantasy football managers in your leagues: those who care most about winning and those who care most about having fun. I know that sounds overly simplified, but I think mostly true.
As fantasy players, we understand the risk behind playing each year, and if you participated this year the inherent risk was even larger. It’s exactly what most fantasy analysts predicted, a rough uphill climb to a championship. It may seem like players are being injured more frequently this season, but this was expected due to a lack of offseason preparation. Players’ unexpected absences from games were also expected, and hopefully, you followed fantasy advice from across the industry about adding IR and extra bench spots for just this scenario.
In this article, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Unlike Week 3, there are a ton of high-priced QBs and RBs to sort through on this Week 4 slate. I’ll be breaking down all twelve matchups, sharing my thoughts on player prices* and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In Week 3, Valdes-Scantling did little with Davante Adams out. He only had one reception for five yards on four targets. However, we recently learned that teammate Allen Lazard will miss significant time with a core muscle injury. Therefore, Valdes-Scantling will be the Packers’ WR2 for the foreseeable future. Adams is also continuing to recover from a hamstring injury. While I expect Adams to return in Week 4 and play, hamstring injuries can reoccur at any time. In that event, Valdes-Scantling would inherit a massive target share, as the Packers have an extremely thin WR depth chart. As Lazard’s injury news came across recently, most waiver wires have already run for the week. Therefore, you might be able to sneak Valdes-Scantling onto your roster in free agency before he’s a popular claim next week.
The Vikings picked Irv Smith Jr. with the 50th overall pick in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. At the time, they had two star receivers in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, with veteran Kyle Rudolph as their starting tight end. Immediately after the Vikings selected Smith Jr., there were rumors that Rudolph could be traded or released.
The Jets found Anderson as an undrafted free agent out of Temple in 2016. As a rookie, Anderson filled the Jets’ WR3 role behind veterans Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa after an injury to Eric Decker. Anderson served as the Jets’ primary deep threat, displaying elite speed. Going into 2017, the Jets dismantled their receiving corps. Marshall and Decker moved on in free agency while Enunwa missed the entire season with a neck injury. Anderson led the Jets in targets, yards, and touchdowns, ahead of WR2 Jermaine Kearse. At this point, Anderson seemed to become the Jets’ clear WR1, and he had a bright dynasty future.
We’re three games into the season and we are starting to see what a lot of these rookies are made of. This past weekend the WRs were in the spotlight with several having very impactful games. However, there is a rookie WR who I am beginning sour on. Week 3 of the “Rookie Stock Market” begins below!
The Cardinals drafted Isabella with the 62nd overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. Isabella played college ball at Massachusetts, an independent team in FBS. Even though Massachusetts is a smaller school, Isabella received NFL attention when he caught 102 passes for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns in his senior year.
I hoped I would never have to write this article, but it’s finally time. After three weeks of relative calm, the COVID-19 pandemic has now disrupted the NFL season. Last week, the Titans had multiple players and personnel test positive for COVID-19 after their game against the Vikings. Luckily, as of this moment, no Vikings have tested positive, meaning that their season should proceed as scheduled.
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.