Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 6
A bummer of a week as we went 1-2 after finally establishing some positive momentum. There is no excuse for the Mahomes rushing yards bet as the man didn’t even have a single rushing attempt. Meanwhile, our narrative was right for Frank Gore as he was only on the field for 28% of the team’s offensive snaps. Yet, somehow, he was able to turn back the clock and rush for a season-high 5.5 yards per carry. That Bills defense is not great.
We’ll look to get back to our winning ways this week as we close the first half of the NFL Season.
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 9-12
Longshot: 0-7
Kareem Hunt Under 115.5 Total Yards
Before I get started, there are two relevant pieces of information to consider here:
- The total for Hunt’s rushing yards this week is 89.5
- Hunt has not reached that total since Week 9 of the 2018 NFL season
Now, with that out of the way, you may be tempted to take the under on his rushing total. I would steer clear of that, as I believe Hunt is due for a big game against a woeful Raiders defense.
However, where I believe the real value lies is in the total yards. Despite his touted prowess as a receiving back, Hunt has only eclipsed 25 receiving yards once this year. Hunt would have to not only have his best rushing game in two years, but he would also have to have a season-high effort in receiving yards. While I believe he’s in store for a big game, that seems like too much of an ask to me.
Jimmy Garoppolo Over 259.5 Passing Yards
The Seahawks secondary is in shambles. Even without these new injuries, the team was giving up an NFL-worst (by A LOT) 368.7 passing yards per game. Teams like Arizona figured out that the way to beat the Seahawks is by exploiting their poor secondary.
I know that the narrative is that the 49ers like to run the ball, but they actually throw the ball on 53.7% of their plays. Furthermore, the 49ers are dealing with multiple injuries to their running back room. Jimmy G has eclipsed this total in the past two weeks and I’ll believe he does so again as he looks to keep pace with MVP-frontrunner Russell Wilson.
Baker Mayfield Over 19.5 Completions
Wait, really? I had to do a double-take when I saw this line because I could not believe how low it was.
I understand that the Browns lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the season, but…they’re facing the Raiders. On average, the Raiders are allowing their opponents to complete 24 passes for 284 yards on the season. Meanwhile, Cleveland is averaging nearly 30 passing attempts per game which, admittedly, is rather low. Still, with both defenses not performing their best, the Browns could easily see themselves in another shootout this week. 19.5 completions seems like too good of a value to pass up.
BONUS – Damien Harris Over ??? Rushing Yards
As a Halloween treat, I’m going to offer up a bonus prop for everyone this week! Unfortunately, I can’t include it in my main props because, as of this writing, there is no line for Damien Harris due to his injury. But I feel pretty strongly about this one so…Happy Halloween!
As I said before, the Bills’ run defense is B-A-D y’all. Two weeks ago, they made Patrick Mahomes look like an afterthought as the Chiefs leaned on their ground game. Last week, they gave up 5.5 yards per carry against 37-year-old Frank Gore.
While Harris is on the field less than his counterpart Rex Burkhead, he has seen a majority of the rushing attempts since Sony Michel’s injury. Since October 5 (when Harris began seeing the field) the Patriots’ rushing attempts are as follows:
- Damien Harris – 33
- Rex Burkhead – 20
- James White – 7
Even in a blowout loss to the 49ers, Harris still saw 10 carries and ran for 58 yards. I can’t imagine Bill Belichek allows his team to be embarrassed two weeks in a row. Buffalo’s defense is surprisingly not the threat it used to be. I would feel comfortable taking the over if it’s anywhere below 70 yards.
Week 8 Longshot Pick
Greg Ward Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+300)
Right on the cusp of that Longshot line, gotta love it!
Greg Ward has put up three touchdowns in his last five games. He has seen his snap share increase every game this season, culminating in a 95% snap share last week against the Giants. The Cowboys are among the league’s worst in passing touchdowns allowed to their opponents, giving up over 2 a game. Not much more analysis needed than that!
If you’re looking for some safer plays, Fulgham (+165) and Richard Rodgers (+250) are also good bets as well.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
