For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 7 Recap
Well, all good things must come to an end.
The Jets did it. They finally covered a spread this season bringing an end to a 0-6 record against the spread. I would like to say I’m proud of them, but really this was simply an exercise in the Bills’ ineptitude more than anything.
Overall, we went positive on the week again and 2-1 in our in-depth picks! Full disclosure, I have a lot of favorites picked this week which may not bode well as favorites have only covered 44.8% of the time this year. But I’m feeling confident in these picks so, without further ado, let’s roll!
Last Week: 8-6-0
In-depth picks: 13-8-0
Overall: 60-44-0
Cowboys (+7.5) at Eagles
Because the Jets covered last week against the Bills, they no longer sport the worst record against the spread in the NFL. That ignominious “honor” belongs to the Dallas Cowboys who are the first team since 2006 to begin a season 0-7 against the spread. This week, America’s team travels to Philadelphia in a “battle” for the NFC East “crown”. Yuck.
But, like the tweet above says, there’s value in picking the 0-7 team. According to Oddsshark, teams that begin the year 0-7 against the spread typically cover the spread in 62.3% of their remaining games.
It’s not like the Eagles are world-beaters by any stretch. Their offensive line is still banged-up and they boast a not-great 2-5 record against the spread. Meanwhile, the Cowboys possess an exciting trio at wide receiver and should get standout offensive lineman Zack Martin back in the lineup this week. The quarterback position is obviously a question mark, but this offense may hum along just fine.
I’ll be honest, I’m not 100% comfortable on this pick but I feel compelled to write about it given the storylines heading into the game. Ultimately, I’m following some advice I heard early in my betting career. When two bad teams play, always take the points. Give me the Cowboys in this one.
Colts (-3) at Lions
It’s a tale of two teams in this Sunday morning matchup:
The Colts’ defense has been their strength this season, consistently ranking number one in the league until their Week 6 performance against the Bengals. Even after allowing 313 passing yards and 27 points, they still rank in the top five.
Meanwhile, the Detroit defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed and points allowed. Admittedly, they’ve turned it up in recent weeks but it still is by no means a dominant unit.
In a matchup between a mediocre offense and outstanding defense (Colts) and an above-average offense and below-average defense (Lions), I’ll side with the better defense. I would be wary if this line made its way to -3.5, but with the half-point and push in my pocket, I’m taking the Colts.
Jets at Chiefs (-19.5)
The Chiefs may very well drop 21 on the Jets in the first quarter and laugh as they try to score against their defense. It’s a terrifying spread, but I’m sticking with it.
J-E-T-S. Wins. Us. Bets!
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Falcons at Panthers (-3)
Vikings at Packers (-7)
Titans (-6) at Bengals
Rams (-4) at Dolphins
Steelers (+3.5) at Ravens
Raiders (+2.5) at Browns
Patriots at Bills (-3.5)
Chargers (-3) at Broncos
49’ers at Seahawks (-3.5)
Saints (-4) at Bears
Buccaneers at Giants (+10.5)
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
