Dynasty Analysis
Every week, I’m going to break down an entire division, focusing on their play on the field that week. Specifically, I’ll go through each team and focus on their dynasty assets, especially anybody who suffered injuries or a massive value change. I won’t look at any player or team in too much detail. This article is more of a summary piece. I also included links to all my previous divisional nuggets articles at the bottom of the page. With that said, let’s jump right in!
Hey everyone, @DFF_ZTrain here again to bring you the last edition of our 2020 NFC North Nuggets. If you are curious to see previous editions, head over to Dynasty Football Factory! Without further ado, here are my takes on some guys who have made some movement since my last piece, enjoy!
We’re on FIRE! That’s two weeks in a row of going 3-0 on our in-depth picks. For good measure, we went 12-4(!) on our overall picks leading to probably our best week on record. We’ll look to carry that momentum as we close out the regular season.
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation. Mooney truly shouldn’t be featured in this series any longer. I don’t quite understand how he’s still under 40% owned. Mooney has received six or more targets in four of the last six games, so the opportunity is certainly there.
The carnage of Week 14 is a not-so-friendly reminder to keep grinding all the way to the end of the season. Players who left the field with injuries include 49ers’ LB Fred Warner, Cardinals’ IDL Jordan Phillips, Bears’ CB Jaylon Johnson, and no fewer than four Eagles: CB Darius Slay, CB Avonte Maddox, S Rodney McLeod, and DT Malik Jackson. Three starting Raiders – DE Clelin Ferrell, LB Nicholas Morrow, and S Johnathan Abram – were sidelined, and the Raiders’ 44-27 loss to the Colts got defensive coordinator Paul Guenther canned.
Remember my looking ahead to Week 15 article? If you scroll to the bottom, I begged you to pick up Jalen Hurts in advance of Week 15. I didn’t think he would be a fantasy star against the Saints, and I even made a charity bet that he wouldn’t be a top-12 quarterback. Well, I was wrong. Hurts currently sits as the QB8 for the week with only two quarterbacks to go, meaning that he will definitely be a QB1 in Week 14. Hurts completed 17/30 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown while losing a fumble. However, he dominated on the ground, taking 18 carries for 106 yards.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues.
Week 14 marks the return of Gardner Minshew which is apparently great news for Keelan Cole. Cole caught seven of 12 targets for 67 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Titans. He’s received at least five targets in four of the last five games and 2.9 fantasy points per touch, good for first on the team among receivers with at least 20 targets.
I love writing these storyline pieces. I will go through some of the games and discuss one dynasty-relevant storyline per team that I’m excited to see. I won’t cover every game, as I don’t feel like there’s necessarily an exciting storyline to discuss for every team. However, I’ll bring you my best insights from the games I select each week.
In this article, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense. In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Like Icarus, we maybe flew too close to the sun during our hot streak and got a little cute with our picks last week. Won’t happen again. Let’s close out the year strong!
Sticking with last week’s format, I’ll be focusing on my favorite games for the Week 14 main slate that I believe offer the best game environments and stacking opportunities. As you read, please note that the player names in bold are what I consider my “core” players or guys that I’m sliding into a large percentage of my lineups. Oh, and if you’re new to DFS, you should check out my DFS Tips and Tricks article here.
*All player prices referenced are from FanDuel.
In this weekly article, I’m going to look ahead to the following week. I’ll point out a few players below 40% owned on ESPN who have strong matchups next week that you can pick up ahead of time to beat the waiver run. With added IR spots in most leagues, you can also shift injured players there, opening up a roster spot for these options. At this point, we’re playing a weekly game. Don’t drop anyone you need to use this week in the playoffs to prepare for a possible Week 15 matchup. If you don’t win this week, you won’t have a next week. But, if you have a first-round bye, this column is essential for you. Start preparing for Week 15 now, while your league mates focus on the first round of the playoffs.
The New England Patriots took ownership of the Los Angeles Chargers offense on Sunday in LA. New England’s defense shut out Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, et al. in a game where New England’s DST produced three sacks, a blocked kick, two interceptions, and two touchdowns! Adrian Phillips, Adam Butler, and Devin McCourty were excellent IDP plays.
This marks two weeks in a row that Cam Akers has made it into the risers. That’s a good look, especially for a rookie that had a relatively rocky start to the season. Week 13 brought Akers a season-high in total yardage, touches, and snap %. In addition to the increased workload, Week 13 marks the third week in a row that Akers has found his way into the end zone. The increase in usage could be attributed to Darrell Henderson Jr. briefly leaving the game with a knee injury, but nonetheless, it is great to see the second-round pick finally get a real workload and look good doing so. I think what is most noteworthy from Week 13 is the usage of Malcolm Brown. Despite Henderson going down with a knee injury, Malcolm Brown saw a season-low in snap rate with just 16%. Does this mark the end of an era? Has Sean McVay finally realized Brown has no juice? Did he finally take a look at box scores and see Malcolm Brown’s longest run on the year is for 19 yards? I think the past few weeks, Akers has proven his worth, and McVay and company are ready to truly get him involved in the offense.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads. We’ve hit the triple-digit mark on our overall wins and have a win % of just over 50%. We’ll look to improve on that in the weeks to come!
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
As we enter the fantasy playoffs, each start/sit decision becomes more crucial. In this article, I’ll be covering a handful of players that I believe will either exceed expectations or let your team down in a major way. Here’s who you should be looking at for Week 14.
Playoff time is here at last! Did you make it? Sure hope so. Playoffs are the best. It doesn’t matter if you snuck in at 6-7 or ran the table and locked up a first-round bye. From here on out, you win or you go home. That fact is why playoff matchups matter so much. It doesn’t matter if you spent a high-round pick on a guy or if he won you a handful of matchups this year. That was then, this is now. You have to be honest about how that player will perform this week because this week is the only thing that matters. You have to be in it to win it, so play the guys who will keep you in it. In addition to some interesting playoff matchups, we’re also running through some of the players that interest us from a dynasty perspective for those of you who are already looking forward to 2021. Best of luck to those of you in the playoffs, and happy offseason trading to you dynasty readers.
The fantasy playoffs are here, and dynasty owners are either getting ready for a championship run or still chugging away and grinding out some end of roster collateral for next season. This week I will be looking at another mini-sized wide receiver with exceptional measurables, Cameron Batson. This 5’8 175 lb. wide receiver is in his third year as a pro and showing glimpses of what we want from a big-play receiver. The Tennessee Titans seemed to be loaded with these types after you take away A.J. Brown and Corey Davis, but I am highest on Batson going forward as opposed to Kalif Raymond and Adam Humphries.
I think the Giants stunned everyone by beating the Seahawks 17-12, remaining in first place in the NFC East. The Giants haven’t had star Saquon Barkley all season due to an ACL tear, and Daniel Jones missed this game with a hamstring injury. Also, Devonta Freeman remains on injured reserve with an ankle injury and is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Luckily, the rest of their offense is currently healthy, and I expect Jones to return in Week 14.
Two months ago I got excited about Gesicki being a top ten tight end in fantasy. I also got excited that he was the only tight end in the AFC East that I wanted to talk about. His next four finishes:13.6, 0, 1.3, 6.7. Whoops. Now to the last four games: 6, 8.3, 11.5, 23.8. Alright! He’s back! Well, sort of…it’s clear that Gesicki is a talented player. However, he got fantasy players excited last year when he got hot down the stretch. What are two things in common between this stretch and the one last year? An injury to Preston Williams. I’m just not sure he is going to demand enough targets each game as the third option in that offense for fantasy managers to be happy. I’ll be looking to move Gesicki in the offseason for a better tight end.
Let’s look back even further to April of 2016, right before the NFL Draft. The Eagles here were able to pull off a trade with the Cleveland Browns to secure the second-overall pick and select the North Dakota State University quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles originally had the eighth-overall pick so they had to pull out the full bag of tricks to move up. They traded the eighth-overall pick, along with their third-rounder and fourth-rounder in 2016. On top of that, the Eagles traded their first- and second-round picks in 2017 to pull off the deal. So in totality, the Eagles have handed Carson Wentz the keys to the franchise, and to their credit, they were able to win Super Bowl LII against the New England Patriots.
This weekly article is focused on identifying players who are owned in less than 40% of redraft leagues. These players are going to help your team win this week and every week to come! We are looking for guys you should be able to plug into your starting lineup without hesitation.
There has never been a more difficult season for roster management in fantasy football. A typical season includes one list on which to reserve players for health reasons. The Reserve/Injured list with a designation to return allowed a team to stash a player for eight weeks. The team would activate the player from IR for a 21-day practice window in which to determine if the player was healthy enough to return to play. The player would commonly need a week or two to recondition before taking the field.
In this streaming article, I will provide you the best weekly options to stream quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. In each section, I’ll break down two streamers in detail, both of which will be under 50% owned, according to ESPN’s ownership percentage at the time of writing. Playing the matchups is a crucial feature of redraft fantasy football, and especially in a crazy 2020 season, active fantasy owners will have a massive advantage.
This week and every week going forward we’ll bring you several recommendations for players you should add to your dynasty rosters. We’ll mainly be targeting lower-owned guys who should be available in all but the deepest leagues.