In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
The college football conference championship games concluded this weekend highlighted by some spectacular individual performances. Alabama took down Florida in an SEC Championship shootout. Quarterback Mac Jones broke the passing yards record with 418, however it was Najee Harris who took home the MVP honors on a record-setting five TD game. Star receiver Devonta Smith’s 15 catches also broke the SEC Championship game record. Florida’s star tandem of Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney both had over 100 receiving yards and a TD, but it wasn’t enough to take down the CFB Playoffs number one seed.
Clemson left no doubt on who is the best team in the ACC Championship game, but the biggest shock for the ACC was the New York Jets beating the LA Rams, giving Jacksonville the inside lane on landing Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence had a great game against Notre Dame, throwing for 322 yards and two TDs and showing off his dual-threat capabilities with 90 rushing yards and a third TD. Travis Etienne, who came back for his senior season, became the ACC all-time leading rusher as he averaged over 12 yards per rush and added another TD to his resume.
The presumptive second pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, Justin Fields did not have the same success as Lawrence, as he had the third game of his Ohio State career with multiple interceptions. The Northwestern defense stymied the Ohio State passing attack but overplayed their hand by allowing Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon to run all over their front seven for 331 yards, which is yet another Championship game record-setting performance. Fields will have to play spectacularly in the College Football Playoffs to maintain his slot as the second overall draft pick.
Sermon’s old program, Oklahoma also won themselves a conference Championship as they took down Breece Hall and the Iowa State Cyclones, though their two losses on the year kept them out of playoff contention. Hall scored twice in the second half, but their comeback ran out of steam due to three Brock Purdy interceptions.
Though Kayshon Boutte’s 300-yard performance was by far the most impressive performance of the week among underclassmen another true freshman in the SEC has broken out in Mike Leach’s air raid offense.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – Jaden Walley, WR, Mississippi State
THE PROSPECT
Jaden Walley is a 6’1” and 175 lbs. receiver from Biloxi, Mississippi. He was rated as just a three-star recruit out of high school but has found his calling with offensive guru Mike Leach. Walley ran about a 4.6-second 40-yard dash time in high school, though it is not a verified time, where he really stands out is between the ears. Walley was a quarterback in high school, so he wasn’t high on many programs’ recruiting lists, however, he did earn five SEC offers.
Before the start of the season, Mike Leach had some things to say about the three-star receiver, “I like the fact he’s really explosive. I like the fact that he’s really excited to play, he’s one of those guys that always plays with a smile on his face, I think that contributes to the others around him. We want to get him out there and get him involved because he’s going to take off here pretty quickly as a great player.” Walley concluded his true freshman regular season with a bang and will look to bring the Bulldogs a victory in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl against Tulsa.
THE ANALYSIS
This weekend Jaden Walley had a five-catch game for 129 yards and one TD against Missouri, while this is impressive it is not necessarily indicative of a breakout. Why this is a breakout is because it is the true freshman’s fourth consecutive 100 yard game. He joins Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle as the only other SEC receivers to accomplish such a feat. Over the four games, Walley has 29 catches for 520 yards and two TDs. The advanced metrics over this period are also impressive, he has a 32% dominator rating and 2,5 yards per team pass attempt. Walley’s freshman season thus far has lead to him being the Bulldogs feature wide receiver with 48 catches for 691 yards and two TDs. His season-long advanced metrics are less impressive with a 17% dominator rating and 1.5 yards per team pass attempt, but we expect Walley to stay on his recent four-game pace as he is a perfect fit in Leach’s air raid offense.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, the 6’2” redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. Wells had a terrible performance in the Conference USA championship game against the UAB Blazers, completing only 34% of his passes. Wells finished his redshirt freshman season completing 60% of his passes for 1,977 yards and 18 TDs versus nine interceptions. He also added value on the ground rushing for 176 yards and two TDs. We will look for Wells to make another improvement coming into 2021 and clean up some of the bad decisions that he left on the field in his first season as Marshall’s starting quarterback.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
Rattler’s first season as the Oklahoma starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of a ride. This rollercoaster has finished with Rattler leading the Sooners to a Big 12 Championship over Iowa State. Rattler has played very well in Lincoln Riley’s offense but will have to continue improving to hold off 2021 commit Caleb Williams. In his redshirt freshman season, Rattler completed 68% of his passes for 2,784 yards and 25 TDs versus only seven interceptions. Rattler has also been effective on the ground rushing for 120 yards and five TDs. Rattler has a rocket for an arm and should be drafted very early in any devy drafts this season where he is available. Next season will be crucial to see if Rattler can distance himself from Howell and Slovis (and potentially Mac Jones coming back for a senior season) as the 2022 QB1.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. At that point in the early season, I was ready to proclaim Gibbs as the top running back in the 2023 class, however, due to the amazing talent throughout the class, it’s going to be a rotating door until we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs has continued to produce on the ground as well as an effective receiver. On the ground, Gibbs has 460 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 24 catches for 303 yards and three TDs through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs has now accounted for 20% of Georgia Tech’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Mims now has 36 catches for 583 yards and eight TDs, which equates to a 24% dominator rating and 1.73 yards per team pass attempt. Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season. Vaughn leads all power five true freshman in yards from scrimmage with 1,086. Vaughn is making up 32% of Kansas State’s offensive yardage, only 11 players in the nation are making up a higher percentage of their teams’ yardage than the true freshman dynamo.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie continues to produce after his breakout performance, however, Devonta Smith has totally stolen the show making his run at the best wide receiver in the country. He is by far the favorite to win the Biletnikoff Award and the only wide receiver who has odds available in the Heisman race. Metchie has been no scrub himself, but Alabama has not needed the firepower with easy wins each week. Metchie is still averaging an impressive 18 yards per catch on his season and has totaled 44 catches for 782 yards and six TDs. In terms of his advanced metrics, Metchie is still producing above the thresholds in dominator rating and yards per team pass attempt, despite Devonta Smith’s onslaught of SEC defenders. Metchie is making up 20% of Alabama’s passing yardage and 18% of their passing scores for a dominator rating of 19%. He is also averaging 2.23 yards per team pass attempt. Metchie will assume Smith’s target monster role next season, which will give him the opportunity to play his way into first-round NFL draft consideration.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back has emerged as the 2023 RB1 since Week 5 and has maintained that position however it’s an unbelievable deep and talented class. Bigsby’s hard running style and his refusal to be tackled by a single defender have led to 834 rushing yards and five TDs. He has also proved that he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield with 11 catches for 84 yards. Bigsby has been producing while clearly dealing with an injury, though his weekly status will not alter his status as the top running back in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver is having an incredibly impressive season. Burks has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, with 820 receiving yards and seven scores on his 49 catches. While the counting stats are not indicative of a dominant season, within the context of the Arkansas offensive attack, Burks is having a very efficient season. Burks has a dominator rating of 35% and has a yards per team pass attempt of 2.89. Burks struggled against the Alabama defense, however much of that blame can be associated with Feleipe Franks’ 65 net yards on 23 dropbacks.
Week 7 – Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
After Mertz’s breakout performance throwing 21 times for 248 yards and 5 TDs, he had tested positive for COVID-19. And Wisconsin had to postpone football activities for multiple weeks due to the outbreak. On the season Mertz has completed 62% of his passes for 1,108 yards and eight TDs versus five interceptions. He has not been as impressive as his initial breakout game, but keep him in the back of your mind in a deep devy Superflex format.
Week 8 – DJ Uiagalelei QB, Clemson
Uiagalelei faced many of the same issues with fourth-ranked Notre Dame as he did with BC in terms of his defense allowing the opponent to get out to a multiple score lead early on. After leading Clemson back into the game for the second straight week, he fought them to a second overtime before Notre Dame finally came away victorious. Uiagalelei had another efficient week completing over 65% of his passes for 439 yards and two TDs. He also showed his strength with another rushing touchdown. We expect Clemson’s superstar Trevor Lawrence to be back for their next game, however, in his two-game sample size, Uiagalalei has distanced himself as the 2023 QB1 over Bryce Young.
Week 9 – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland
The 6’0” and 205 lbs. five-star wide receiver shocked the college football scouting complex when he chose to play at Maryland as opposed to LSU among 26 other prestigious programs. Jarrett was rated as the fourth-best receiver in his class and the top-overall player from Washington D.C. He reportedly ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash at The Opening in D.C. Jarrett is a tantalizing combination of speed, quickness and possesses elite-level route running despite his youth. Jarrett became the first true freshman to score two-or-more TDs to go along with over 100 receiving yards since Stefon Diggs. Jarrett had a true breakout game against Penn State on a five-catch game, those catches went for 144 yards and two TDs and Jarrett emerged the best receiver for Maryland despite being only a freshman. Jarrett, despite only playing four games this season, maintained a dominator rating of over 20% and over 1.5 yards per team pass attempt.
Week 10 –Terion Stewart, RB, Bowling Green
Terion Stewart is a true freshman running back for the Bowling Green Eagles. Stewart stands 5’9” and 216 lbs. and was a three-star prospect from Sandusky, Ohio. Stewart is not a player that we were expecting big things this year from, as he was rated outside the top 2,000 prospects and as the 144th running back prospect overall. In three games, Stewart has rushed for 295 yards and four TDs. Because he has only played in three games he is still a candidate for a redshirt season if Bowling Green chooses to do so.
Week 11 – Tyler Shough, QB, Oregon
Tyler Shough led his Oregon Ducks past the USC Trojans to win the 2020 Pac 12 Championship this weekend, though Shough’s performance was forgettable as sophomore sensation Kayvon Thibodeaux refused to let Oregon lose. Shough passed for under 100 yards in the game including an interception in the worst start of his career. Over the past three weeks, Shough has portrayed that he is not an NFL-caliber quarterback at this point. Another year of development in Mario Cristobal’s system would go a long way for his NFL draft stock.
Week 12 – Zachary Evans, RB, TCU
Zachary Evans has been one of the top players in the 2020 recruiting class, but after lengthy recruitment that finally landed him at TCU, he has emerged as the Horned Frogs’ featured back. Evans stands at 5’11” and 195 lbs. has a body nearly ready for NFL action, and his skill set is emerging as one of the most difficult matchups in the nation. Evans was a five-star prospect across all ranking platforms. Along with having the prototypical running back body type, Evans is a consummate athlete who ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash in high school and conveyed his elusiveness with a positional best 3.91-second shuttle time. Evans was the top recruit that the Horned Frogs have ever received according to 247 Sports, including Eagles phenom receiver Jalen Reagor, and is the best running back for TCU since LaDainian Tomlinson. On the season, Evans has 62 touches for 491 yards and four TDs. With a 13% share of the team rushing attempts, Evans’ advanced stats are not going to be very impressive this season, but I expect him to take a stranglehold over a bell cow position going forward.
Week 13 – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Standing at 6’0” and 222 lbs. Bijan Robinson is the greatest running back to come from Arizona ever. Texas’ true freshman was the first player in Arizona history to win the Ed Doherty Award, given to the best high school football player each year. He is the all-time rushing leader in the state with 7,036 yards and 114 TDs. Robinson is a five-star prospect according to every ranking system, and 247 Sport’s top running back. Robinson concludes his freshman season as the featured back in Arlington, overtaking the pre-season starter Keaontay Ingram. He finished the regular season with 76 rushing attempts for 520 yards and three TDs to go along with 13 catches for 159 yards. Robinson didn’t scorch the earth with his freshman season as we hoped for, but he did end his regular season averaging 12 rushes for 113 yards, and a TD to go along with two catches for 30 yards over his last three games.
Week 14 – Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Standing at 6’0” and 185 lbs. Boutte already has the size to make plays in the NFL. The Louisiana native has been committed to his hometown Tigers since 2018, despite Alabama trying to flip him in 2019 amidst a great senior season. Boutte is one of the fastest players in the nation, having been a part of the fastest 4×200 relay squad in Louisiana state history. He also was tracked by GPS data registering over 21 MPH on the football field. On November 29th LSU’s star receiver decided that it was time to opt-out of the season and prepare for the NFL Draft, LSU also lost star freshman tight end Arik Gilbert to the transfer portal within the week. This opened the door for Boutte to break out, and a break out maybe an understatement. In the past three games, Boutte has 27 catches for 527 yards and four TDs, including one amazing 14-catch game that produced 308 yards and three TDs. Boutte’s advanced metrics over this three-game span are spectacular, he has a 56% dominator rating, over two yards per team pass attempt, and 2.4 adjusted yards per team play. Boutte has distanced himself as the WR1 in the 2023 NFL draft-eligible class, and one of the most exciting players in the SEC.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
We will continue to keep our eyes on these young future NFL stars and identify them as soon as they break out to keep you ready for your devy drafts as well as making sound trades on an early breakout before the rest of your league catches up.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
