After writing one of my “Dead to Me” articles, I remembered how much I enjoyed it. In this series, I figuratively bury a new player in each column. Typically, I expect that player to stay buried after the 2020 season, and the player I’m discussing had significant fantasy value or fantasy hype in the past. Now, it’s Curtis Samuel’s turn at the redraft tombstone.
2017: Draft Profile and Rookie Year
Samuel had an exciting role in college at Ohio State. He had more carries than receptions during his college career, with 172 carries compared to only 107 receptions. In his final college season, Samuel averaged 7.9 YPC and caught 74 receptions for 865 yards. He totaled 15 touchdowns with eight on the ground and seven through the air.
In today’s NFL, teams might have seen him as a running back/wide receiver hybrid in the mold of 2020 prospects like Antonio Gibson or Lynn Bowden. Those players received a running back designation when entering the NFL and will begin their careers there. However, even just a few years back, the NFL wasn’t the same creative league as it is today. Also, since Samuel joined the Panthers, who picked up star receiving back Christian McCaffrey in the same draft, he essentially became a pure wide receiver.
While the Panthers had no plans to deploy Samuel as a running back, they spent the 40th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft on Samuel. Therefore, they saw Samuel as an eventual starter at wide receiver. To begin, Samuel would fill the slot role alongside Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess on the outside.
However, as a rookie, Samuel didn’t get much playing time or opportunity in the offense. He suffered a hamstring injury in training camp and fell behind in learning the offense. He also injured his ankle in the last preseason game and added a back injury in Week 3. Eventually, he re-injured the same ankle and reverted to injured reserve for the rest of the season. In total, Samuel played in parts of nine games and recorded 15 receptions on 26 targets for 115 yards. As expected, Samuel added little as a rusher, with only four carries for 64 yards. Overall, Samuel’s rookie year was a definite disappointment, and most fantasy owners left him off their radar going into 2018.
2018: Rise from the Dead
The ankle injury kept Samuel out for the entire offseason program, but the Panthers finally cleared him for full game action by early August. The Panthers had traded Benjamin during 2017, but they drafted D.J. Moore in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. Once again, Samuel profiled as the team’s slot option, with Moore and Funchess as the two outside receivers.
Unfortunately, Samuel developed an irregular heartbeat before Week 1. He missed the Panthers’ first three games and eventually returned for Week 5. However, by that time, the Panthers had decided to change their offensive plans. They had moved D.J. Moore into the starting lineup as an outside receiver, but they locked Jarius Wright into the slot role. At first, Samuel had to compete with Funchess and veteran Torrey Smith for the outside role opposite Moore.
From Weeks 5-11, Samuel continued to disappoint. He never exceeded 40% of snaps and totaled only 17 receptions on 23 targets for 179 yards and three touchdowns. On a more positive note, he also had four carries for 43 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Amazingly, Samuel had five total touchdowns on only 21 offensive touches. He was the WR38 over that period and averaged 9.6 PPG.
Due to Samuel’s ridiculous efficiency, the Panthers decided to promote him to the starting lineup in Week 12. From that point forward, he dominated outside receiver snaps alongside Moore and produced at a similar rate. Samuel caught 22 of 42 targets for 315 yards and two touchdowns compared to Moore’s 25 catches on 43 targets for 314 yards. He and Moore both added a bit of value on the ground. Samuel had four carries for 41 yards, and Moore had five for 50 yards.
Over those six games, Samuel finished slightly ahead of Moore in fantasy, although both players had almost identical stat lines and usage. Samuel succeeded even with an injured Cam Newton, who missed the final two games of the season and struggled through many games before that point. When watching the Panthers, you wouldn’t have noticed a significant difference between Moore and Samuel on the field, despite the reality that the two players had nothing in common as prospects and they profile as completely different receivers in the NFL.
2019: The Biggest Letdown Ever
While Samuel had an impressive final six games, some people got carried away going into 2019. The Panthers hyped Samuel as a “preseason MVP” and as a central part of their offense. The team had moved on from Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith without adding a significant additional receiver to the roster. Therefore, they had no choice but to rely on Moore and Samuel as their clear top two receiving weapons apart from McCaffrey.
Many fantasy owners said things like, “Don’t pick Moore early because you can wait and get Samuel much later,” pointing to their similar stats down the stretch of 2018. However, for various reasons, Samuel ultimately failed to live up to any of the hype. First, Newton only played two games in 2020, missing the rest of the season with a foot injury. His replacement, Kyle Allen, played terribly, completing only 62% of his passes and throwing a miserable 17 touchdowns to 16 interceptions.
Even though the Panthers suffered from poor quarterback play, I can’t excuse Samuel’s performance. Samuel caught a horrific 51.4% of his targets, with 54 catches out of 105. He converted those receptions into 627 yards and six touchdowns, for 11.6 yards/reception and 6.0 yards/target.
With the same quarterback play, Moore excelled. Moore caught 87 of 135 targets for 1,175 yards and a 64.4% catch rate. Moore also averaged 8.7 yards/target and 13.5 yards/reception, demolishing Samuel’s efficiency in all categories. Even though Samuel played all 16 games while Moore played just 15, Moore finished as the WR16 with Samuel down at WR36. Moore also averaged 15.4 PPG compared to Samuel’s 10.7. After 2019, there was no doubt who’s the more talented player: it’s Moore in a landslide.
Before moving forward to 2020, I think it’s essential to stop and learn a valuable lesson from what happened here. Just because two players get similar usage in the NFL doesn’t mean the two are similar players. Moore always profiled as a dominant top receiver going back to his college career, whereas Samuel was always a gadget-type weapon. Those who extrapolated based on a six-game sample size made a massive mistake and paid dearly for it.
2020 and Beyond: The Future
Going into 2020, the Panthers decided to rectify their mistake from 2019. They allowed Wright to leave in free agency and replaced him with Robby Anderson. Anderson is a real outside receiver, who will serve as an excellent complement to Moore. The Panthers had forced Wright into the slot during 2018 and 2019, and that forced Samuel to the outside. Samuel is not an outside receiver and never should have played in that role.
Therefore, I believe Samuel will now return to where he belongs, as a hybrid slot receiver and gadget player. He proved that he should not receive 105 targets or anywhere near that number. Samuel represents a change-of-pace for an NFL offense, not a primary weapon. While Samuel might stick around in the NFL for a while, fantasy owners should look elsewhere for production. There are always those players that are valuable to their NFL teams but not to us as fantasy owners. Samuel is in a fantasy grave now with the rest of those players, where he belongs.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Previous Dead to Me Articles: Dead to Me: Redraft, Dead to Me: Aaron Rodgers, Dead to Me: Sony Michel, Dead to Me: Tevin Coleman, Dead to Me: Marlon Mack, Dead to Me: Kerryon Johnson, Dead to Me: Jared Cook
