I’ve loved the “Dead to Me” series of articles. It’s provided an excellent way to create redraft content throughout the offseason and take a closer look at the week-to-week effectiveness of one or two players at a time. By going in-depth and zooming in, we can discover how these players have been hurting your fantasy redraft teams for multiple years. Here’s the list of previous articles in the series:
Tevin Coleman
Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Tevin Coleman. Coleman has provided fantasy promise in redraft for parts of his five seasons in the league. However, he has never been able truly to fulfill that upside and has been a fantasy frustration for his entire career. Let’s start with a quick snapshot of Coleman’s career so far.
| Year | Games Played | Carries | Rushing Yards | YPC | Rushing TDs | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG (5 games min.) |
| 2015 | 12 | 87 | 392 | 4.5 | 1 | RB79 | RB89 |
| 2016 | 13 | 118 | 520 | 4.4 | 8 | RB20 | RB13 |
| 2017 | 15 | 156 | 628 | 4.0 | 5 | RB22 | RB23 |
| 2018 | 16 | 167 | 800 | 4.8 | 4 | RB18 | RB27 |
| 2019 | 14 | 137 | 544 | 4.0 | 6 | RB39 | RB44 |
As you can see, Coleman had a three-season RB2 stretch from 2016-2018, and he wasn’t particularly relevant in 2015 or 2019.
But Coleman’s story is far from that simple. Let’s go back to 2014 before Coleman even entered the NFL. In 2014, the Falcons drafted Devonta Freeman in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. Freeman then became part of a backfield trio with Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers. He had a pretty quiet rookie year, splitting backup work with Rodgers behind Jackson. Freeman had just 248 rushing yards on 65 carries and one rushing touchdown.
After 2014, the Falcons decided to move on from both Jackson and Rodgers. They brought in Dan Quinn as their head coach and Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator, replacing Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter, respectively. While Freeman was the nominal starter, there was room for an additional running back in the Falcons’ backfield. Even though they didn’t make any significant free-agent signings, the Falcons decided to draft Coleman with the 73rd overall pick in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft. Considering that Coleman had superior draft capital to Freeman and was an early draft pick by the new coaching regime, most expected Coleman to become the Falcons’ starter, possibly as soon as Week 1 of 2015.
Unfortunately for Coleman, that did not happen. Instead, Freeman had a monster breakout season, finishing as the RB1 overall in fantasy by a considerable margin. Coleman was limited to just handcuff duties, taking 87 carries to Freeman’s 265 and only two receptions to Freeman’s 73. On his limited touches, Coleman had an up and down rookie season. He averaged a solid 4.5 yards per carry on the ground but caught just two of 11 targets through the air. Either way, given Freeman’s success, Coleman was considered a high-end handcuff and showed flashes of being able to take Freeman’s role if necessary.
In 2016, Coleman was 49th among running backs in ADP–priced in the handcuff range. Freeman put together another solid season, playing all 16 games and finishing as the RB6. Despite Freeman’s success, Coleman was also fantasy viable. In his 13 games, he averaged an RB13 finish. Coleman had 118 carries, still less than Freeman’s 227, but far more than he had in 2015. Additionally, Coleman significantly progressed as a receiver. He caught 31 of 40 targets for 421 yards and three receiving touchdowns. Therefore, after 2016, Coleman had shown enough to be a standalone fantasy asset, with high-end RB1 upside if Freeman ever went down.
Therefore, coming into 2017, Coleman was the best handcuff in fantasy football in addition to being a flex play. Priced as the RB26, Coleman once again hit on his draft cost. Freeman remained the starter, and Coleman played in a backup role until Week 10. In that game, Freeman was forced out with a concussion, allowing Coleman finally to step into a workhorse role. In the three games Freeman missed, Coleman had 20, 20, and 19 carries and scored four rushing touchdowns. He totaled 223 yards in those three contests and was the RB8 in that span. Even though Freeman returned in Week 13 and resumed the starting role, we had seen Coleman as a workhorse, and in theory, we now knew that he could handle it.
Finally, in 2018, Coleman received an extended chance. Freeman suffered a knee injury in Week 1, returned for a short stint in Week 5, and then missed the rest of the season with foot and groin injuries. Therefore, Coleman had an opportunity to be a workhorse for almost the entire 2018 season. However, Coleman was not a workhorse. He only totaled 167 carries, averaging just 10.4 rushes per game. The Falcons decided to use 2018 fourth-round pick, Ito Smith, in a committee with Coleman, giving Smith 90 carries. Coleman hit career highs in carries, yards, yards per carry, receptions in 2018, but he scored just four touchdowns. While he still finished as the RB18, those who acquired Coleman after Freeman’s injury were extremely disappointed in his performance.
After the 2018 season, Coleman was an unrestricted free agent. The Falcons still were paying Freeman a sizable contract, so it was pretty clear that Coleman would be moving onto a new team. Before Coleman’s failed 2018 stint as a workhorse, fantasy owners had been looking forward to his free agency for multiple years. Many fantasy players assumed that he would receive a sizable contract and workhorse role for a new team.
That large contract did not materialize, and Coleman had to settle for a 2-year $10 million deal with the 49ers. Coleman joined a messy committee, as the 49ers already had Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert returning from their 2018 roster, as well as Jerick McKinnon returning from injury. Coleman found himself reunited with Kyle Shanahan, who had been Coleman’s offensive coordinator in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016.
In the 2019 offseason, Coleman was named the 49ers’ starter, with McKinnon and Breida expected to be the backups. Mostert was considered a special-teamer and Wilson a practice-squad player. Then, McKinnon suffered another setback and was placed on injured reserve, leaving just Coleman and Breida in the expected committee. Because of that, Coleman’s ADP jumped to RB27, ahead of Breida at RB37.
Unfortunately for Coleman, his season got off to a terrible start when he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1. Coleman returned in Week 5 and once again received an audition in a workhorse role. From Weeks 5-7, Coleman averaged 18 carries per game and scored two rushing touchdowns. However, Coleman was far outplayed by Breida, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry during that same span.
Going into Week 8, the 49ers decided to move away from using Coleman as a workhorse and installed a three-way committee. They gave 15 carries to Breida, 11 to Coleman, and nine to Mostert. While the usage was clear, Coleman scored four total touchdowns in Week 8 and finished as the RB2 for the week. Therefore, Coleman tricked many fantasy owners into thinking that Coleman would continue to be a stud going forward.
After Week 8, Coleman did nothing but burn you. He never exceeded 12 carries or 40 rushing yards again all season and totaled just one more rushing touchdown. The 49ers tried to use Breida as their starter before eventually settling on Mostert as the lead back. From Weeks 13-17, Coleman had between three and five carries in each game and was entirely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Coleman then bizarrely had a strong performance in the 49ers’ first playoff game, with 22 carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns. However, once again, that success was short-lived, as Coleman got only six and five carries in the final two playoff games.
Overall, after the trials of 2018 and 2019, it is clear that Coleman will not turn out to be a workhorse back in the NFL. The 49ers still have Mostert, Breida, and McKinnon on the team for 2020, and Coleman will compete with Breida and McKinnon for the backup role to Mostert. Even if multiple players suffer injuries or fall out of favor, Coleman will never be the workhorse back in San Francisco or anywhere else. He’s someone to avoid in redraft since the presumed upside he flashed in 2017 doesn’t exist.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
