Here’s a quick look at the career of Tarik Cohen so far.
|Year||Games||Total Yards||Receptions||Total TDs||Fantasy Rank||Fantasy PPG||PPG Rank|
Cohen came into the NFL as a fourth-round pick in 2017, where he profiled as the pass-catching complement to two-down grinder Jordan Howard. Throughout his three seasons, Cohen has played every game and has increased his receptions year over year. In 2018, Cohen shined as the Bears’ offense found success. He averaged an incredible 10.2 yards/reception and 8.0 yards/target.
However, in 2019, Cohen’s production plummeted despite the increased opportunity. Complementing new early-down back David Montgomery, Cohen found snaps in the slot and out of the backfield, but he did little with his targets. Cohen had a whopping 104 targets, but he averaged a miserable 5.8 yards/reception and 4.4 yards/target. It’s hard to reconcile Cohen’s 2018 and 2019 seasons, as he went from one of the most efficient offensive options in the NFL to one of the least.
Going into 2020, I believe Cohen is in line for a bounce-back season. The Bears should move on to new quarterback, Nick Foles, who will improve on the previous starter, Mitch Trubisky’s accuracy. Trubisky was horrific in 2019, which likely contributed to Cohen’s poor efficiency stats. While Foles isn’t a far superior option, he should make the Bears into a competent offense.
The Bears also failed to acquire any significant offensive weapons to take targets from Cohen. They still have Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller as their top two receivers, but they didn’t add a real slot receiver to the mix. The Bears didn’t sign or draft any running backs, choosing to stick to a 1-2 punch of Montgomery and Cohen.
Therefore, Cohen should see plenty of snaps from both the backfield and the slot, meaning he could easily repeat his 104 targets from 2019. Considering that Cohen finished as the RB27 in 2019, I think my ranking of RB31 in redraft leagues is perfectly reasonable. He could easily beat that projection, but it’s fair to acknowledge his ceiling is probably a mid-RB2 at best, lowering his ranking.
Dynasty owners are consistently leaving Cohen for dead, as he’s fallen well outside the top 100 in 1QB dynasty ADP. Cohen turns 25 years old in July, and he’s even less vulnerable to age than a typical running back since most of his production takes place through the receiving game. Cohen could easily have 5 to 6 more seasons of good fantasy performances, and that’s worth at least a mid-second round rookie pick. I would recommend trying to buy Cohen now because if he even shows a glimpse of his 2018 form, it will be impossible to acquire him for a reasonable price.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.