Dynasty

Austin Ekeler: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Austin Ekeler: Los Angeles Charger and defier of the odds. The UDFA out of Western State blew the top off every fantasy analyst’s big board last year by finishing as the RB4. Oh, and he shared the load with Melvin Gordon from weeks 5 onward. He was electrifying every step of the way finishing second among running backs in both catches and receiving yards, plus finishing number one in yards per touch. Ekeler makes his living in PPR leagues due to his ability in the passing game, both as a reliable check-down and a threat out of the backfield where he played 30% of his snaps. How good is he as a receiver? Since 2017, Ekeler is the number one receiving back in the NFL ranked by PFF at 94.2. Numbers two and three on that list? Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. Enough said.

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Karp’s Favorite Fantasy Format

No matter the format, the most important thing is that you and your league mates enjoy playing together. Play the types of leagues you like, and feel free to try new leagues. However, it’s also okay if you don’t want to play a specific format, like how I feel about IDP leagues. Just be a good person and an active owner, and you’ll enjoy your time in this world.

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UDFA Unraveled: WRs

As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.

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UDFA Unraveled: RBs

As the post-draft hype begins to fade and teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster, everyone is looking for that next edge. In a recent argument on @TaleofTwoRivals, we bantered quickly about the value of UDFAs in a dynasty league but reached no real conclusion. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low on? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.

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Player Personnel Groupings for Dynasty

NFL teams represent personnel groupings with a two-number phrase. For example, you might have heard “11 personnel” mentioned in some of my articles. The first number refers to the number of running backs on the field, while the second number refers to the number of tight ends. Then, since there are five eligible receivers, if you subtract the sum of both numbers from five, you get the number of wide receivers. For example, an 11 personnel group denotes a one RB, one TE, and three WR formation, which is the standard base offense in today’s NFL. For dynasty owners, 11 and 12 personnel are the two main formations, and I’ll break down each in detail.

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Curtis Samuel: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Curtis Samuel is now entering this 4th year in the NFL after being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2017 NFL Draft. Statistically, he has improved each season. While in the last year of his rookie contract with the Panthers, could he take another step forward? A lot of production and fantasy points were left on the table in 2019 and with some new pieces added to the puzzle in Carolina, dynasty owners wonder if his potential has been crushed or unlocked.

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Derrick Henry Contract Extension: Rapid Reaction

Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans have come to an agreement that will keep the bruising running back in town for years to come. First reported by Ian Rapaport, the deal got done just an hour before the 4:00 P.M EST deadline for teams to sign franchise-tagged players to long term deals. While the exact details have yet to be disclosed, we know via Adam Schefter that the deal is a 4-year, $50 million contract with $25.5 million guaranteed. This moves him up a spot from the fifth highest-paid running back by average annual value (AAV) in 2020 to the fourth, leapfrogging David Johnson. More importantly for Henry, it moves him up to fourth in total value, just behind Le’Veon Bell at $52.5 million. With the workhorse back staying in Tennessee, what does this mean for the Titans offense?

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Tyler Lockett: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Tyler Lockett finally stepped into the number one wideout role for the Seattle Seahawks in 2019 and produced elite numbers when he was healthy. In 2019, Lockett played in over 90% of the offensive snaps in 8 of his first 9 games. After he was hospitalized during week 10 against the 49ers, he was only able to hit 90% of offensive snaps again one time the rest of the way. Prior to the injury, Lockett had amassed 767 yards and 6 scores through 9 weeks. In the 7 weeks after, and including the game he was injured in, he only gained 290 yards and 2 scores. In those first 9 weeks, Lockett was the third-best wide receiver in fantasy.

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D.J. Chark: 2020 Dynasty Profile

When the Jacksonville Jaguars selected D.J. Chark in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL Draft, they knew they were getting, if nothing else, a truly special athlete: an outside receiver standing 6’ 3” tall, with 4.3 speed and a 93rd percentile burst score. After Chark’s disappointing rookie season, in which he accumulated just 14 receptions in 11 games, many wrote him off as another combine warrior in the same vein as Breshad Perriman. In 2019 however, D.J. Chark broke out, turning 117 targets into over 1,000 receiving yards and 8 TDs and finishing as the WR17. 

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Preston Williams: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Preston Williams had a rocky career in college, playing two years as a bench player for Tennessee in 2015-2016 before transferring to Colorado State. After sitting out the 2017 season and having some off-field issues, Williams broke out in 2018. He recorded 96 receptions for 1,345 yards and 14 touchdowns, dominating the team’s passing game, far ahead of 2019 seventh-rounder Olabisi Johnson.

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Tarik Cohen: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Tarik Cohen: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Cohen came into the NFL as a fourth-round pick in 2017, where he profiled as the pass-catching complement to two-down grinder Jordan Howard. Throughout his three seasons, Cohen has played every game and has increased his receptions year over year. In 2018, Cohen shined as the Bears’ offense found success. He averaged an incredible 10.2 yards/reception and 8.0 yards/target.

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James Conner: 2020 Dynasty Profile

James Conner was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 3rd round of the 2017 NFL draft. He was quiet in his rookie season. But, when Le’Veon Bell held out in 2018, James Conner broke out in a big way. He finished as the RB6 with over 1,400 total yards, 55 receptions, and 13 TDs. Conner dealt with multiple injuries in 2019, appearing in just 10 games. His efficiency regressed as the Steelers offense crumbled in the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, but he still finished as the RB17 in PPR PPG. 

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Lynn Bowden trade

DFF Rookie Round Table, Part 10: Final Thoughts

We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter.  Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come. This is the final part of the series, where we’ll look at more insights and tidbits about these rookies.

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Kenny Golladay: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Kenny Golladay is coming off of two straight 1,000 yard seasons and finished as a top 10 fantasy receiver in 2019 at just 26 years old. Golladay overcame playing half of the season with a backup quarterback to lead the league in receiving touchdowns last year with 11 total scores and was one of three with double-digit touchdowns, but the only to score 11. He was also second in the league in average depth of target (15.7) and yards per target (10.3) among players with at least 100 targets. The only two receivers ahead of him were Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. We know when the ball finds Golladay it’s going to be deep downfield.

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Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Higbee is one of my favorite 2020 values at tight end, coming in at TE6 in my redraft rankings. He’s in the same tier as Hunter Henry and Evan Engram, but neither of those players has anywhere close to Higbee’s upside. The Rams’ offense should improve from 2019, as quarterback Jared Goff had almost the same yardage in 2018 and 2019 but threw 10 fewer touchdowns. I expect to have many Higbee shares in my 2020 redraft leagues, and I would love to have him on my dynasty team.

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rookie

DFF Rookie Round Table, Part 9: Joshua Kelley

After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism.  I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!  

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rookie

DFF Rookie Round Table, Part 8: Zack Moss

After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism.  I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!  

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