Stefon Diggs joined the Minnesota Vikings in 2015 as a 5th-round pick. Since then, he has produced four top-30 fantasy finishes in five seasons, including a WR10 finish in 2018.
The 2019 season was a strange one for Diggs. After averaging 12.0 YPR and 8.1 YPT across his first four NFL seasons, he jumped up to 17.9 and 12.0, respectively. He emerged as one of the most efficient deep threats in the league, aided by the accuracy of Kirk Cousins, who finished 5th in true completion percentage and 10th in deep completion percentage in 2019.
Now a member of the Buffalo Bills, there’s no question that Stefon Diggs will operate as an alpha receiver in 2020. He’s an incredible talent, and the Bills gave up a fortune to obtain him. But just how valuable will that alpha role be for fantasy football? Many will point to Josh Allen’s 72 deep attempts (8th in the league) and assume that Stefon Diggs is a perfect skill match. Remember though, Diggs only became a true field-stretcher in 2019, and that required pinpoint accuracy from Kirk Cousins. Josh Allen ranked 33rd in both true completion percentage and deep completion percentage in 2019, so to expect more of the same from Diggs would be wishful thinking.
If Allen cannot become a more efficient passer, Diggs will have to rely heavily on volume to provide fantasy value, which presents another problem. Josh Allen only attempted 461 passes in 2019, and, considering the Bills have a good defense, a run-heavy offense, and a scrambling QB, that number is unlikely to climb much higher in 2020. Even if we project Allen for 500 attempts, Diggs would need to secure a 25% target share (just five WRs managed this in 2019) to reach 125 targets. Given Allen’s deficiencies as a passer, that number still doesn’t present much of a ceiling for Diggs owners. While he has a chance to beat his WR27 ADP, I do not believe he has WR1 upside.
I’m lukewarm on Stefon Diggs as a dynasty asset. I don’t like that he’s tied to Josh Allen and the low passing volume of the Buffalo offense for the foreseeable future, but, on the other hand, situations change all the time. Diggs is a phenomenal player and just 26 years old, so, if you can acquire Diggs at a discount because someone doesn’t like his situation, you probably should (even if it’s a little icky). However, don’t expect too much in the near future. I think his ceiling is in the mid-WR2 range as long as he plays with Josh Allen.
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