#TomBomb
BUY-LOW DYNASTY ASSETS
~ NEW YORK JETS ~
3. Sam Darnold
Regardless of the fact you were the #3 overall selection just two years ago, when you produce back-to-back QB27 finishes you’re going to find yourself on the outside looking in. This is where we can begin our Sam Darnold discussion. However, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, it would be wise to remember that there is (almost) always a silver lining to everything. In the case of Darnold and his less than stellar end-of-the-year rankings, we do need to acknowledge that both happened over a 13-game span. When you extrapolate his numbers across the entire slate of games, you are now looking at your QB22 (2018) and your QB20 (2019). Not great, but an improvement nonetheless. What Sam D. has working in his favor entering his third season is both high draft capital and his two, potentially three, remaining years on his rookie contract.
What we’ve seen over and over again in this league is that teams seem to have the most success when they can capitalize on a rookie quarterback treaty. Coupling this reality with one just as obvious is the fact that Darnold has had some pretty unimpressive weapons throughout his time in New York. This is still a work in progress. But, make no mistake about it, progress has been made. While the loss of Robby Anderson hurts, the addition of Breshad Perriman coupled with the drafting of Denzel Mims should more than make up for said departure. Also, worth noting is both Bell’s second year in the system as well as (finger’s crossed) the return of Chris Herndon at tight end.
Here’s the sitch, my friends. This 2020 season is a rather important one for Sam Darnold and his future as the Jets’ potential franchise quarterback. We all know what is likely to transpire if he fails. With that out in the open, if he can connect the dots, there’s quite a promising opportunity ahead in Gang Green Nation for this freshly turned 23-year-old gunslinger. Old Tom’s advice is to test the waters with your current Darnold-owning league mate. In 1QB leagues, he’s almost free. In SuperFlex leagues his price is such that you should feel more than comfortable paying, in my opinion.
2. Le’Veon Bell
Sticking with Old Tom’s theme of not overlooking veteran assets who have limited shelf life, I’d like to introduce one dynasty buy-low individual I’m quite fond of – Mr. Le’Veon Andrew Bell, Sr. There’s no denying that ever since Le’Veon’s 2018 holdout, and the manner in which he acted, his professional football career has begun to fade. However, when one fades from the sun they still retain a good amount of heat for much of the fall. This expression – which I’d like to coin as a TomBomb-ism – while not entirely bullet-proof, still holds a little truth in my eyes. What has happened, in many dynasty circles, hasn’t been some new-age revelation that “old” running backs return significantly less value.
This is understandable and quite fair. What has transpired, however, is how we are classifying that term “old”. With all the talent that continues to filter into the NFL, especially at the RB position, we are of course seeing quite a saturated market. Yet, let us never forget that newly-turned 28-year-old individuals, in as pristine condition as individuals can be, aren’t the best candidates to attribute such an honorable title to. At least not in Old Tom’s eyes, anyway.
When we look at what Bell was able to accomplish, on a rather sub-par team with arguably an even less-impressive offensive line, there is hope. Coming off the RB16 (PPR) finish to the 2019 season, his numbers jump 2 slots to RB14(PPR) when we account for his week 14 absence. Now, I’m not oblivious to some potential rifts with Adam Gase or the fact that this Jets organization has a contract out after the 2020 season. What I am soaking up though, is that for this 2020 season you have an opportunity to use those two previous realities to buy-low on one of the greatest fantasy football running backs this generation has seen, as he exits the prime of his career.
Whether Le’Veon officially hangs it up as a Jet or with a different ball club down the road makes no difference to Old Tom. As I enjoy referencing Mark Ingram and his ability to produce high-upside fantasy value at the age of 30, I consequently enjoy recalling to memory guys like Mr. Bell and their future outlook.
What we saw last year from Le’Veon was 502 less rushing yards and 6 less rushing touchdowns in comparison to the last season he strapped it up. With the offensive line additions/upgrades of George Fant (LT), Connor McGovern (C), & Greg Van Roten (RG) I can’t help but feel a little giddy at the elevated opportunity Le’Veon will experience in 2020. Shoot your Bell-owner a quick text. Preface the conversation with your grave concerns for #26’s future outlook. Then see how low you can start negotiations. As you work your way up to a price you’re happy with, and she/he’s comfortable with, you may very well be thanking Old Tom down the road.
1. Breshad Perriman
It’s pretty mind-blowing how quickly and drastically life can switch gears. Old Tom specifically remembers sitting in my rocking chair with absolute delight on my face, watching the 2015 NFL draft, and seeing the Baltimore Ravens select UCF’s Breshad Perriman with the 27th overall selection in the 1st round. What seems like an eternity ago, and a pretty bad dream for five of the six teams that grabbed a WR in said round, we find the beginning of Mr. Perriman’s professional career. With year one essentially ruined by a string of injuries, Perriman just never seemed to recover during his three years in Baltimore. You name it, he suffered from it – injuries, drops, overall disappointment, etc.
When Breshad found himself out of employment to begin the 2018 NFL season, he quickly answered the phone when the Browns came calling in October. While nothing spectacular developed, what this opportunity did for Breshad Perriman was allow him that all-important and never-guaranteed second chance. Perriman had what looked like the next step to his fresh start after a non-verbal agreement was in place for the 2019 season. Then the Browns pulled the blockbuster of all blockbusters when they traded for Odell Beckham Jr. It was this move that pulled the rug from under Perriman’s feet and consequently forced his hand to sign elsewhere. Enter the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Intended to be nothing but insurance, Breshad found himself buried on a depth chart behind two of the league’s most dominant wideouts.
Then it happened. The week 14 hamstring pull by Mike Evans created something so much more for Breshad Perriman. Something he had, in theory, at his previous two stops but never to this extent. This was Breshad’s Golden Ticket to Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory, if ever there was such an applicable metaphor. After years of wandering a wide receiver and fantasy football wasteland, in both Baltimore and Cleveland, Perriman had reached a destination where passing the football took precedence over running it.
What was accomplished across those next 4 games was exactly what you call fantasy-football-championship-winning-play. Or, simply, the WR3 (PPR) performance. In fact, across Perriman’s final five games we were privy to witness a stat-line of 38-25-506-5. While no one would ever expect those numbers to remain consistent across a 16-game season, it’s still fun to stare at 122-80-1,619-16. The thing Old Tom finds most encouraging was his 66% catch rate across those final 5 games. Granted, this is nothing to write home about. Nonetheless, it would have ranked him T-19th among WRs in 2019.
Why is that noteworthy? Well, because one of Perriman’s biggest knocks throughout his career was always his inability to secure passes on a consistent basis. If you trust 5-game sample sizes, we at least need to enter into the conversation that begins with a different kryptonite for New York’s #19. By placing Breshad Perriman at the ever-coveted #1 buy-low spot, for the Jets, I’m not telling you he’s the next Michael Thomas. I’m simply stating my genuine belief that the return you will get for your investment will be everything, and more, you could have hoped for. With my good faith in Darnold to step it up in 2020, I need you to be aware of the second part of that equation, which equates to his #1WR. Crazier things have happened, my friends.
I genuinely thank you for taking the time to read my article and kindly welcome you to follow me on Twitter @BombadilFantasy. This, my friends, is where you’ll find as many #TomBombs as your heart can desire. Remember, while I have quite an extensive history and the wisdom to show for it, I’m still perfecting my craft of fortune-telling. Nonetheless, you have my assurance that you’re in great hands with Old Tom Bombadil. Hey dol! merry dol! ring a dong dillo!
