Don’t blink, or you’ll miss it. There are just three games of football remaining in the 2020 NFL season. Before you know it, the NFL draft will have come and gone, and the rookie draft season won’t be far behind. With it, comes the buzz of the incoming class, and roster cutdowns mean some players who have yet to pop, will quickly be forgotten. This article is to remind you about five wideouts who came into the NFL over the past couple of seasons, with strong analytical profiles based on their dominator rating and breakout age.
If you haven’t heard of these metrics before, they are relatively straightforward and intuitive.
Dominator rating is the percentage of a team’s total passing offensive output (yards and touchdowns) for which a wide receiver was responsible. It is preferable to simply looking at the raw output due to vast differences in the circumstances of each wide receiver, such as quarterback play, scheme, and play-calling tendencies. It reflects how a player was able to perform relative to their college teammates. If they can’t outperform their peers, how can they be expected to earn targets on an NFL roster?
Breakout age is the age at which a college receiver earns a 20% dominator rating (per Playerprofiler). Its premise is simple: good players will perform earlier.
The five players below broke out before they turned 20, with a dominator rating of 30%. However, they were not selected in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. This means that their likelihood of being fantasy relevant is low, but given their strong analytical profiles from college, I believe they are worth taking a flier on (in the order they are listed).
Scotty Miller – Tampa Bay
BOA: 19.09
DR: 45.1%
Draft Round: 6
Miller is the most high profile name on this list, having had a strong sophomore season with Tom Brady under center. He posted 500 yards and three scores including a 100 yard game against the Raiders. He was more involved before Antonio Brown was signed to the roster, but Chris Godwin is an unrestricted free agent going into the 2021 season. Miller has earned the trust of Tom Brady and is one Antonio Brown off-field incident away from being the second or third option in Tampa Bay. He’s number one on this list for a reason.
Oh, and he’s not a slot receiver either. Yes, he’s white. Yes, he’s short. But Miller only played 21% of his snaps in the slot last year. He wins outside the numbers and downfield, posting the fourth-highest average depth of target in the league. His upside is intriguing.
Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay
BOA: 19.02
DR: 54.7%
Draft Round: 5
Like Miller, Tyler Johnson may benefit from the departure of Chris Godwin. He had a quiet rookie year, but that’s to be expected from a fifth-round draft pick. Johnson’s college production was off the charts, posting a 98th percentile dominator rating (per Playerprofiler), all whilst competing with phenom Rashod Bateman for targets.
He will continue to earn looks from Tom Brady if he makes a few more plays like this:
Marquez Callaway – New Orleans
BOA: 19.43
DR: 30.1%
Draft Round: UDFA
At 6’1”, Callaway has some physical size, but it is his impressive 82nd percentile burst score (aggregating his vertical and broad jump) that allows him to high-point the football and box out defensive backs. Think Mike Williams. He was also a solid punt returner which is a positive for his athletic profile.
The UDFA has already surpassed TreQuan Smith on the depth chart, and with the Saints in salary cap hell, don’t be surprised to see them cut Emmanuel Sanders who will be 34 years old next season. In doing so they can save $6million, which will be welcomed by the front office given that they are $99million over the projected 2021 cap (OvertheCap). There’s a greater than zero chance that Callaway is a starting receiver for the Saints next season.
Finally, Jameis Winston will likely be the starter in 2021. Whilst to date he has been used primarily in the quick passing game on curls, slants, and out routes, it’s possible this is more a function of the limitations of Drew Brees’ declining arm strength. Is there a more suitable quarterback in the NFL for a receiver who can win via contested catches than Mr. 30 for 30 himself?
Isaiah Hodgins – Buffalo
BOA: 19.86%
DR: 41.8%
Draft Round: 6
Hodgins was drafted in the Sixth Round of the NFL Draft, but unfortunately missed his entire rookie season on the injured reserve list. He underwent shoulder surgery in December 2020.
His junior (and final) year at Oregon State was by far his best, earning over a 30% target share and scoring 13 touchdowns to post a 41% dominator rating.
His path to playing time in Buffalo is obviously muddied. Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley are the clear cut primary options, and fourth-round rookie Gabriel Davis had a strong campaign. The Bills can save over $8million by moving on from John Brown, as they are projected to be over the cap with only 42 players under contract. Even if they do, Hodgins may only start the year as the fourth or fifth option.
Regardless, the Bills have established themselves as one of the best offenses in football, and with each passing day, it seems more and more likely that Brian Daboll will return as offensive coordinator. That’s good news for all Bills pass-catchers, as Josh Allen had more dropbacks in neutral or positive game script situations than any other quarterback in 2020 (Sharp Football Stats). Hodgins is worth an end-of-roster bench spot in deeper leagues.
KeeSean Johnson –Arizona
BOA: 19.90
DR: 41.9%
Draft Round: 6
‘Dynasty Twitter’ had a pre-draft love affair with Keesean Johnson until he dropped to the Sixth Round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He has a similar physical profile to Marquez Callaway but is less explosive and athletic.
Unfortunately in his first two seasons, Johnson hasn’t delivered anything of significance on the field and the odds of it ever happening are steadily decreasing. However, his percentage of snaps in the slot jumped from 3% as a rookie, to over 45% this season. With the retirement of Larry Fitzgerald, a starting slot role is up for grabs. Should the Cardinals fail to invest any significant capital in the draft on the wide receiver position, Johnson may have a chance to stake a claim.
It’s worth checking your waiver wire to see if Johnson is available in deeper leagues. Chances are he doesn’t produce for you, but if he’s able to earn a starting role, you’ll be glad you picked him up.
There is a strong possibility that one or several of these receivers will be on the waiver wires of your dynasty league. If they aren’t, they should be cheap to acquire, especially as fantasy owners make roster cutdowns to create space for those precious incoming rookies! My trade tip is to try and acquire one of these players before they are dropped to the waiver wire, by offering a pick swap in a later round. You get the player and your trade partner moves up in the draft whilst freeing up a roster spot. Everyone wins.
Let me know what you think of these sleepers on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!
All breakout ages and dominator ratings for this article have been borrowed from the incomparable Peter Howard. You can find him on Twitter @pahowdy. If you aren’t following him, be sure to correct that!
