I don’t know about you, but I’ve been doing plenty of drafting during this extended period of isolation and lockdown. What else am I supposed to do? One player who seems to be consistently undervalued, be it either in a best-ball or dynasty start-up draft, is Tyler Lockett. I’d be willing to wager he will be undervalued in redraft leagues come August as well.
His current price represents excellent value for a receiver coming off his most productive season to date and playing with one of the best quarterbacks in football. He’s also a lock for volume, with D.K. Metcalf the only other real pass catcher of note on the Seahawks depth chart.
Speaking of D.K. Metcalf, I asked the collective wisdom of Twitter the following question:
Truth be told, I wasn’t surprised that more people would want Metcalf (for the same reasons that The Big Bang Theory is the most-watched comedy on television in recent years), but I didn’t expect the sweeping results that unfolded! Lockett might be one of the easiest dynasty buys on the market right now.
Why Lockett?
Put simply, he’s been one of the better receivers in football over the last two years, particularly when lining up in the slot. Lockett went from lining up in the slot on 34.7% of his routes in 2018, to 60.1% in 2019 (per Player Profiler). He made the role his own following the retirement of Doug Baldwin, and the results spoke for themselves, posting career highs in targets, receptions, and yards.
This breakout didn’t come out of thin air either. Since 2016, he leads all pass catchers in yards per target (min. 300 targets) according to Pro Football Reference.
What makes this so impressive? Lockett’s catch rate of 71% is ranked second out of the 20 players listed above. His yards per target is not overstated with low-probability deep shots predicated on raw speed but built using efficient tools such as crafty route running, body control, and elite concentration. His skill set will serve him well as he ages – as will his otherworldly connection with Russell Wilson, which allows things like this to happen:
One or two plays (no matter how spectacular) are not the be-all and end-all, but this is a great example of why Wilson and Lockett have worked so well together. No quarterback buys additional time outside of structure like Wilson, and good luck to any defensive back who can bottle up Lockett when things break down. Poor Marlon Humphrey didn’t know what hit him:
2019 Season
From Weeks 1 – 10, Lockett was the WR5 in total points, and the WR8 on a point per game basis:
Unfortunately, he suffered an injury in the Week 10 game against the 49ers which left him hospitalized to avoid severe complications (he was the WR3 on the year going into the game). As the Seahawks had their bye in Week 11, Lockett didn’t miss any time, but he was a combination of Limited Participant or DNP in practice for Weeks 12 and 13. Whilst Lockett was on the field for over 85% of the snaps in both weeks, it was clear as a decoy, posting a stat line of 1-38-0 on five targets in total across both games.
Whilst it’s not ideal to remove games from an already small sample size of 16 games, if we remove the three games noted above and extrapolate his remaining 13 games to a 16 game sample his stat line would read 96 – 1222 – 9 on 124 targets. That would be good for 272 PPR points, or the WR4 on the season.
Of course, this doesn’t mean Lockett would have finished as the WR4 has he not been hurt, but it serves as a nice indicator of the production he posted before and after his injury.
Drawbacks?
I’ve tried to think about why fantasy football players would be so down on Lockett, and three potential reasons come to mind:
1. Age concerns
Not likely, Lockett will turn 28 in the early start of the season (assuming no there are no delays) meaning he has plenty of years of production ahead of him – especially if he keeps lining up in the slot. See Edelman, Julian, and Fitzgerald, Larry.
2. Seattle’s run-first offense
We all know Seattle likes to run the football. A lot. Especially on early downs. However, Lockett still earned a 22.3% market share of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts (24th in the NFL). Assuming his 16 game pace without injury, and that rate climbs to 24% – excellent usage regardless of how much Seattle runs the ball. Given his history of being highly efficient, combined with his elite catch rate and slot usage, and market share between 21% – 24% will make everyone who rosters Lockett very happy. There is enough to go around for both Metcalf and Lockett to earn over 21% of the targets in this offense.
3. His contract
Tyler Lockett Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History
Lockett is a UFA after the 2021 season (per Over the Cap). He has a $12.55 million cap charge over the next two years, but with the Seahawks having over $21 million cap space for 2020, and over $60 million projected cap space in 2021, it would not surprise me if extension talks begin during the 2020 season. Especially since he is Russell Wilson’s favorite target. Once the ink is dry on a new deal, his dynasty value will start to rise again.
Lockett is not only one of my favorite receivers to watch, but he’s also one of my favorite draft targets for the 2020 season. Are you convinced to invest in Tyler Lockett this year? I have practiced what I have preached and made an offer for him in nearly every dynasty league in which I don’t already roster him, offering multiple second-round picks for him. I would also happily send a late first in single quarterback leagues where I needed WR help.
Let me know your thoughts on Lockett’s outlook, or share any recent trades you have made involving him on Twitter @FF_DownUnder. Thanks for reading, and remember – Always Be Building!
