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2020: The Year of Joe Mixon

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Happy New Year, DFF Army! The 2019 fantasy football season has concluded, which means that the hard work of the dynasty offseason is just beginning. Fortunately for you, our loyal members, we at Dynasty Football Factory will be grinding all offseason to make sure you are getting every opportunity to take advantage of the fluid dynasty landscape, including players who are buys and sells based on what we saw in the 2019 season. So I present to you, my first buy article of 2020. 2020 will be the year in which Joe Mixon wins you your fantasy football leagues. 

2019 was disastrous for the Bengals, as they finished with the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. At the start of the season, I predicted that Mixon would be a top-three dynasty running back:

Unfortunately for my hot take, Mixon was unable to hit the ground running, but his talent is unquestioned:

If Mixon’s first half of the season was even close to his second half, my prediction may have been accurate! Just look at his production pre and post the Bengals Week 9 bye:

His fantasy output was night and day over these two eight-week stretches. Mixon finished as the RB17 on the season but was the RB31 over the first eight weeks. From Weeks 10 to 17, Mixon was the RB4, averaging over 60 rushing yards per game more. 

This uptick in performance coincided with Andy Dalton being bench in favor of Ryan Finley, as well as a change in offensive play-calling. Over the first eight games, the Bengals threw the ball on 71% of their plays as well as 72% in neutral or negative game script situations (both the 2nd highest rate in the league). Over this period, Mixon averaged 12.6 carries per game. 

Following the bye week, and the switch to Finley (and subsequent reinstatement of Dalton), Zac Taylor leaned on the run more, throwing the ball on 56% of the time and 58% of the time in neutral or negative game scripts (8th and 4th lowest rates in the league respectively). Mixon was the beneficiary of this change in philosophy, averaging 22.1 carries per game. 

Offensive Line Woes

2019 got off to an inauspicious start for the Bengals offensive line. The 11th overall pick, Jonah Williams and projected starter at left tackle tore his labrum in the preseason and was ruled out for the season. Cordy Glenn was slated to start at left guard to accommodate Williams, but following his injury was set to resume his Bengals career at left tackle. He also suffered an injury and was ruled out with a concussion. He was then suspended by the team in Week 7 and only made his return in Week 12. Until Week 16, when he was benched, he played 100% of the team snaps. The team also had a series of retirements along the offensive line, with eight-year veteran Clint Boling and Christian Westerman calling it quits as well. Hardly a picture of stability.

The result of all this? The Bengals had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and it was dominated by opposition defensive lines. Mixon only faced a loaded box on 7.91% of his carries, the third-lowest rate in the NFL, but still, the offensive line was unable to open up lanes for Mixon, finishing the season ranked 26th in adjusted line rush yards according to Football Outsiders.

Using this visualization from Sharp Football Stats, we can see the success rates Mixon had in 2019 split out by rush direction. Spoiler alert, it wasn’t good, particularly behind the tackles.

What does stand out, however, is the success that Mixon had running outside of the tackles. This is unsurprising when you watch him play and see his ability to bounce the ball outside and get to the edge using his lateral movement and vicious stiff-arm ability.

Even with this horrendous blocking up front, Mixon was still able to produce another 1,000+ yard rushing season. 

General Offensive Malaise

Not only did Mixon produce behind a sub-par offensive line, but he also produced whilst being part of one of the worst offenses in football. Things did not get off to a good start, with A.J. Green injuring his foot and ultimately failing to play a single snap all year. John Ross was dynamic in the first few weeks of the season before he was injured and placed on IR. There was little to no production from the tight end position, and the QB play was awful with Dalton finishing as one of the least efficient passers in the NFL (credit to Ben Baldwin): 

Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric concurs with Baldwin’s efficiency rating, ranking Dalton as the 26th best quarterback, whilst the Bengals offense was graded 29th overall (28th in passing and 22nd in rushing). Mixon’s fantasy output is pretty remarkable when you account for all of these factors.

With Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow widely expected to be drafted first overall by the Bengals, and over $50 million in projected cap space (not accounting for the $17 million they will save by releasing Dalton –  OverTheCap) to build their roster, things may be looking up in 2020 for the Bengals. Particularly if they can agree to extension with A.J. Green. If the offensive line is bolstered in the draft, and with the returning Williams, Taylor may favor another run-heavy approach in 2020 as he helps his rookie quarterback get acclimated to life in the NFL. If we conservatively project Mixon for 20 touches per game (averaged over 24 per game over his final eight games), he has enough talent to finish as a top-five running back.

I am going to try and acquire Mixon in every league that I do not currently roster him. If I am in a startup draft in the coming months (and let’s face it, I almost certainly will be), there are only four running backs I would draft before Mixon. Those are Barkley, McCaffrey, Elliot, & Kamara (in that order). That’s it. Despite Mixon balling out in the latter half of the season, his performance has gone under the radar due to playing on a 2-14 Cincinnati Bengals team. As a result, his perceived value I lower than what I believe his value to be: A first-round pick in startup drafts. 

Thanks for taking the time to read! What do you think about Mixon? Is there another player you would like me to profile? Let me know on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!

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