Free Agent Focus: Allen Robinson
It’s been a while since I last wrote an article for DFF. Between work, moving interstate, dealing with the rescheduling of a wedding, and the general hustle and bustle of life, I’ve been short on time over the past few months. Or that is what I have told myself.
It’s very easy to put something off, especially when you know there will be some effort involved, and sometimes you can let the excuses win. But I want to start 2021 right, and it’s time for me to start pulling my weight once again. The amazing team here at DFF has been smashing out content week after week, and I am fired up to get back to contributing regularly.
So without further adieu, I present my first article of 2021 for your reading pleasure.
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I am currently participating in a startup mock draft, and Allen Robinson was drafted as the WR13. That’s a perfectly reasonable price to pay, and as the 2021 rookie class is settled, that price will get even cheaper. You’re buying a supremely talented wideout, who is about to earn a huge payday in free agency, and score you plenty of fantasy points for at least the next three seasons. That should be enough to pique your interest. But if that isn’t, behold:
How good has A-Rob been?
Robinson ranks 30th (on a PPG basis) in all wideouts in the modern NFL era through their first seven seasons, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. That alone is impressive enough but is even more so when considering the caliber of quarterback he has experienced. Since his rookie season in 2014, perhaps no NFL wide receiver has endured such a bad run of mediocre to downright bad quarterback play. Here’s a list of signal-callers who have thrown TD passes to Robinson:
Seriously, I challenge you to find me one receiver who has played more than 80 games with a more objectionable group of quarterbacks. It’s no surprise then that only 64% of Robinson’s 783 career targets are deemed catchable which ranks 93rd out of 101 eligible receivers (per PFF). That provides some context to his lackluster career catch rate of 58.4% (although his catch rate has improved to 65.6% over the past two years).
The Chicago Bears are inexplicably retaining the services of Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy for 2021. I am certainly no personnel or scheme expert, but things haven’t been great in Chicago, especially on offense. The Bears have ranked 29th and 23rd in points per game over the past two seasons, even though they have ranked 16th and 17th in offensive plays per game over the same period. Despite this inefficient, offensive malaise, Robinson has produced. He’s one of three players to record at least 200 catches, 2,000 yards, and double-digit scores over that period:
He finished as the WR11 in 2019 and WR10 in 2020 (on a PPG basis) earning a PFF positional ranking of 15th and 5th respectively.
Best landing spots?
Based on his career to date, it seems that Robinson is practically quarterback proof. If he’s healthy, he will score fantasy points wherever he lands. The good news for Robinson is that he will almost certainly be freed from Chicago:
It’s also unlikely that the Bears will pay the projected $16million franchise tag for wide receivers either (OvertheCap), given that their projected cap space for 2021 is already in the red.
Robinson deserves a payday, but there are only eight NFL franchises with at least $20million in projected cap space in 2021. Of course, those numbers can change but for this article, it’s as good a number as any to narrow down his options.
Of that group, five teams make the most sense to me. Let’s take a look at them:
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville has the most projected cap space, needs a true wide receiver 1 (sorry Chark fans), and are widely expected to select Trevor Lawrence with the #1 overall pick. The Jaguars have also appointed Urban Meyer to be their new head coach, who’s Ohio State teams averaged 41 points per game from 2016 to 2018. A homecoming to the team that drafted him makes plenty of sense.
New York Jets
The Jets are also an intriguing option. Yes, the Jets. Joe Douglas is looking to turn around the culture and has made an impressive hire in Robert Saleh as the new Head Coach. Like the Jags, they have significant cap space and resources to play within the draft. Whoever is under center, and whoever is calling the plays, the 2021 Jets will be an improvement now that the fraudulent Adam Gase has been fired. Rookie Denzel Mims posted a healthy 8.71 yards per target (another one of my dynasty buys) and the addition of Robinson, to go along with Crowder, Perriman, and Herndon would get things trending the right way for the Jets.
Washington Football Team
Washington has a bona fide stud receiver in Terry McLaurin, but that didn’t stop them from offering a larger deal to Amari Cooper than the 5 year $100million contract he signed to remain in Dallas. With over $40million in cap space, would they consider making a similar approach for an equally talented wideout in Robinson? The quarterback situation in Washington is in flux, but this is a franchise trending upwards and Robinson would accelerate that trajectory.
Miami Dolphins
Miami signing Robinson is likely contingent on any deal involving a trade with Houston for Deshaun Watson. If they make that move, significant draft capital would be sent to the Texans taking Ja’marr Chase or Davonta Smith off the table. With question marks at receiver outside of DeVante Parker, surrounding Watson with weapons would immediately put the 10-6 Dolphins in a position to challenge the Bills for the AFC East.
Indianapolis Colts
Chris Ballard has built this Colts team masterfully. They have a great roster on both sides of the football and are a quarterback away from being a true threat in the AFC. With TY Hilton becoming an unrestricted free agent, don’t be surprised to see the Colts in the Robinson sweepstakes. Even if Hilton signs a team-friendly deal, his days of earning WR1 volume are behind him. Whether it’s Rivers, Wentz, or another quarterback under center, Robinson will quickly become their favored target.
It doesn’t matter where Robinson lands. It might be one of those five teams listed above, or the cap situation of other wide receiver needy teams might change. Jacksonville would be my preferred spot as they will likely have the best QB situation, but ultimately volume is the most important thing. You don’t draft Trevor Lawrence and hire Urban Meyer to be a run-heavy football team. Plus, who doesn’t love a good homecoming story?
Robinson will be one of my primary trade targets this season, and I will be bullish to acquire him, especially with my rookie picks:
Thanks for taking the time to read this. Let me know what you think on Twitter @FF_DownUnder!
