Author name: Brad Hartnett

devy freshman breakouts

Freshman Poised For a Breakout Season

Every year in devy leagues, we yearn for the players who produce in their freshman season, preferably as true freshmen. Last year, we saw the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, and Bijan Robinson have breakout seasons as true freshmen and boost their stocks to become first-round devy picks as just sophomores. They were joined by Deamonte Trayanum, Deuce Vaughn, Sean Tucker, and Ty Jordan (we were shocked and very saddened by the news of his passing earlier this offseason). Not all freshman breakouts end up being highly touted devy assets though, so in addition to predicting some true freshman breakout seasons, we will also aim to declare potential breakouts as well as what their value change projects to be.

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Rookie Quarterback Record Breakers

With the 2021 NFL Draft in the books and teams beginning their offseason mini camps, the NFL offseason is approaching a lull. We will overreact to one-on-one videos of a wide receiver breaking a defensive back’s ankles on a route when the receiver knows the play and the defensive back does not. Or it might be in the form of a running back making a decent-looking body catch against air. We may even see more statistics about Zach Wilson being 0-5 against teams with 10 or more wins in that respective season and posting just one passing touchdown in those five games.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Davis Mills to the Texans

Davis Mills was ranked as the top overall quarterback in the class of 2017, ahead of Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones. Mills took over as the starting quarterback for Stanford as a true freshman. Mills accumulated just 3,468 passing yards and 18 TDs versus eight INTs in his four-year collegiate career at Stanford. Mills is strictly a pocket-passer and does not offer any threat on the ground for defenders.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Mac Jones to the Patriots

Mac Jones is a quarterback who will reflect the system he is in, and the Patriots do not have much to work with outside their free-agent tight end additions. He will be drafted higher than the typically QB5 in a Superflex Rookie Draft, however, he does not become a value until the late second-round. He could have a long career paired up with legendary coach Bill Belichick, but his upside is capped as a QB2 with the weapons that surround him.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Trey Lance to the 49ers

Lance took over as the starting quarterback for North Dakota State as a redshirt freshman. Lance accumulated just 2,786 passing yards and 28 TDs versus zero INTs in his one-year collegiate career at North Dakota State. I removed the single-game 2020 statistics from his totals because of the nature that North Dakota State scheduled the game for NFL Draft candidates, before playing a Spring Season. Lance also proved to be an elite rusher with 1,182 career rushing yards and 16 TDs on the ground. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Zach Wilson to the Jets

Zach Wilson took over as the starting quarterback for BYU as a true freshman. Wilson accumulated 7,652 passing yards and 56 TDs versus only 15 INTs in his three-year collegiate career at BYU. He also proved to be a capable rusher with 642 career rushing yards and 15 TDs on the ground. Though he averaged only three yards per rush (including sacks).

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DFF Draft Coverage: Trevor Lawrence To The Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence took over as the starting quarterback for Clemson as a true freshman. That season concluded with Lawrence leading the Clemson Tigers to a National Championship. In his career, Lawrence completed 758 of 1,138 pass attempts, a 66.6% rate. He threw for 10.098 yards, 90 TDs, and just 17 INTs which equates to a 164.3 passer rating. Lawrence also added 943 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the ground. Just to remind the reader, college rushing stats include sacks and kneel-downs.

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pitts te vs wr

2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison Countdown: Part 5

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.

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Draft Stock Watch Week 1

2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison Countdown: Part 4

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th. 

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2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison Countdown: Part 3

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th. 

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2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison: Part 2

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th. 

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2021 Rookie Pass Catcher Comparison Countdown: Part 1

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class’s wide receivers, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. We will count down the top-15 pass-catchers with their comparable players as our countdown to the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 29th.

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2021 Rookie RB Comps

In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class running backs, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. In this article, we will make comparisons for the top five running back prospects in the draft.

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2021 Rookie QB Comparisons: Part 1

In this two-part article, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class quarterbacks, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their play style. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. Part one features Day 1 prospects.

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Dominating Your Rookie Draft: 2021 Rookie Tiers

The Rookie 1.01 Draft pick always holds a premium in dynasty fantasy football. Rookie draft picks also vary in value based on the current time of the year that we are in. In the second part of this article, we are going to explore how to dominate the 2021 Rookie Drafts and revisit the value of how rookie pick values change at different parts of the season.

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