In this two-part article, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class quarterbacks, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their play style. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. Part two features Day 2 prospects.
Kyle Trask
Kyle Trask was the Florida Gators’ starting quarterback for the past two seasons. He exploded in his 2020 senior season, throwing for 4,283 yards and 43 TDs despite missing tight end Kyle Pitts in four of the 12 games.
Physical: Trask measured in at 6’5.25” and 236 lbs. at his Florida Pro Day. Trask has prototypical quarterback size as made evident by the players who have very similar measurements. Ben Roethlisberger is the comparison that holds the most water among these names as Trask will likely play above his pro-day weight of 236 lbs.
Athletic: Unlike Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Collin Kaepernick, Trask is no threat to take off and run. He ran a 5.1-second 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. Trask had an average of 0.4 yards per rush in his Florida career, though college rushing stats include sack yardage. He hit a jump of 33” in his vertical jump and 113” in the broad jump. He ran the 3-Cone drill in 7.06-seconds and the short shuttle in 4.6-seconds. From an athletic standpoint, Trask is similar to Nick Foles and Matt Schaub.
Play Style: A pocket-passer would accurately describe Trask. He is a player who loves to attack the defense with the deep ball, and he played stunningly well in that area of his game. On throws of 20 yards or more downfield last year, Trask went an incredible 35-for-69 (50.7%) for 1,497 yards and 16 TDs with no INTs. Nick Foles is a player who meets the criteria of a comparable player to Trask on all three aspects of his game.
Final Comparison: Nick Foles with a YOLO attitude to attack the defenses with the deep ball.
Jamie Newman
Newman transferred from Wake Forest to Georgia before the 2020 season before opting out.
Physical: Standing at 6’2.8” and 234 lbs. Newman has a prototypical quarterback frame.
Newman was getting first-round hype before opting out of the 2020 season, but was it warranted? He has a body type similar to college football legend, Tim Tebow, but he may not project as a good professional quarterback.
Athletic: Newman combines his above-average measurements with a high school 40-yard dash time of 4.76-second. This equates to a favorable speed score of 91.16 which he likely would have improved had he run at his Pro Day. This could indicate a sign that Newman is out of shape after his year off. It sure looked that way when watching him in the Senior Bowl.
From an athletic standpoint, we have a few comparisons that match his measurement similarities in Jesse Palmer and Tim Tebow. However, his athletic comparisons point to an upside that quarterbacks his size in the past have not had historically.
Everyone wants to be compared to Josh Allen this offseason; however, Allen is a one-of-one. A more interesting physical comparison is Brady Quinn, who as a prospect was the next great Notre Dame quarterback.
Play Style: Newman in 2019 had a strong season despite playing for an average team overall in Wake Forest. He threw for 2,868 yards and 26 TDs, but his decision-making could be called into question. Over his career, Newman has nearly a 7% interception rate, which is very high. On the flip side, this could be a result of his competitiveness, as PFF graded him as the second-best deep thrower (20+ yard throws), second to only Joe Burrow.
In the last three years, 84 quarterbacks have thrown over ten interceptions in a single season. Of these players, only Jordan Love was drafted in the first round. What it all comes down to is Jamie Newman has a play style similar to Collin Kaepernick; is this something that can work in the NFL in 2021 and onward? We shall find out.
Final Comparison: Newman is a quarterback who plays like Colin Kaepernick in Tim Tebow’s body frame and Brady Quinn’s athleticism.
Kellen Mond
Kellen Mond was the Texas A&M, four-year starting quarterback. His best season was his 2018 sophomore season in which he posted 3,107 yards and 24 TDs. He improved his accuracy after that season, but could never surpass those marks.
Physical: Mond stands at 6’2.6” and 211 lbs., which is a bit small for a quarterback. Although players at that size have certainly found success in the NFL. Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Teddy Bridgewater all have a comparable size and found success in the NFL for multiple seasons. Kellen Mond is more athletic than all of these players, so let’s keep diving in.
Athletic: At his Texas A&M Pro Day Mond ran a very impressive 4.59-second 40-yard dash, which equates to a 95-Speed Score. Now here’s a key stat for you, no quarterback who ran between a 4.5 and 4.65-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine has ever been drafted later than Day 2 in the NFL Draft. Based on his athletic testing Mond has some very impressive comparable players.
Being on a list with former MVP Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Andrew Luck means that if Mond can put it all together at the NFL level, he has untapped potential. Let’s dive into Mond’s play style to see if he can make the next step and be a starting fantasy football quarterback.
Play Style: Mond is certainly raw for a four-year starter but could be one of Jimbo Fisher’s best products if the NFL can unlock his potential. He makes Russell Wilson-type of plays and enough arm strength to donate some to Mac Jones if he wants. See his escapability in the below highlight.
His lapses of judgment are why he isn’t in the first-round conversation. However, the NFL could certainly be higher on him than the fantasy community. He was a four-year starter, showed improvement over the years, and has elite athleticism. He could see a Jalen Hurts-type of ascension into the second round and a starting gig for an NFL team.
Final Comparison: Kellen Mond is Teddy Bridgewater with more arm strength to push the ball deep downfield. He has Russell Wilson-level potential but will need to be in a nearly perfect situation to realize this potential.
Davis Mills
Davis Mills was a two-year starting quarterback for Stanford. As the starter, he led the Cardinals to consecutive four-win seasons. He was able to lead Stanford to four wins in just six games in 2020 when it took all 12 games to hit that mark in 2019.
Physical: Mills stands at 6’3.75” and 217 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 26.59. Historical comparisons that Mills draws include long-time starter and former comeback player of the year Alex Smith. But he also draws players that failed to make an impact in the NFL like Joshua Dobbs.
Athletic: Mills ran a 4.8-second 40-yard dash during his Stanford Pro Day. This garners a speed score of 81 which indicates that he could be a treat to win on the ground. Although, his college rushing stats indicate this may not be the case. Mills also jumped 32” in the vertical and 110” in the broad jump. He ran the 3-Cone drill in 7.26-seconds and the short shuttle in 4.4-seconds. Mills’ athletic profile draws comparisons to Tim Hasselbeck, Kevin Kolb, and Greg McElroy historically.
Play Style: As mentioned previously, Mills is not going to win in broken plays, he relied on being within the structure of the Stanford offense when he found success. His average yards per attempt during his career was 7.9 which is above average, but not an indicator for NFL success historically. He showed his lack of capabilities when pressured on the below play versus the Cover 3 front.
However, he was able to succeed when he was played within the offensive structure. He made so many poor reads that one may believe that he struggles to read defenses quickly. This is a major problem in the NFL for a quarterback. Based on all of the information at hand, Mills plays almost identically to Jared Goff.
Final Comparison: Davis Mills is essentially Jared Goff, but slightly more athletic. He will not have the draft capital tied to Goff.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
