Every year in devy leagues, we yearn for the players who produce in their freshman season, preferably as true freshmen. Last year, we saw the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, and Bijan Robinson have breakout seasons as true freshmen and boost their stocks to become first-round devy picks as just sophomores. They were joined by Deamonte Trayanum, Deuce Vaughn, Sean Tucker, and Ty Jordan (we were shocked and very saddened by the news of his passing earlier this offseason).
Not all freshman breakouts end up being highly touted devy assets though, so in addition to predicting some true freshman breakout seasons, we will also aim to declare potential breakouts as well as what their value change projects to be. To define what a breakout season is, we are using the following metrics and thresholds:
Adjusted Dominator Rating
I’m sure many of you have heard of Dominator Rating, which is the average of the yardage share and the TD share evenly. Adjusted Dominator Rating gives the yardage share an 80% weighting and just 20% goes to TD share. This gives us a stickier metric for predicting NFL success, where TD scoring does correlate to draft capital it is not as predictive.
Thresholds: Running backs must hit 15% and wide receivers and tight ends must hit 20%.
Why? Receivers typically only contribute on passing plays, whereas running backs are often the focal point of the offense in both rushing and passing situations.
Adjusted Yards Per Team Play
While you may not have heard of this metric before, it is extremely useful and predictive for future success. Adjusted yards are yards plus TDs with the weight of a TD equaling 20 yards per team play. For example, if a player runs for 100 yards and scores one TD, his adjusted yards would be 120 yards.
Thresholds: For all freshman players it is 1-yard per team play.
Why? Why? Receivers typically only contribute on passing plays, whereas running backs are often the focal point of the offense in both rushing and passing situations.
For the same reason as above, pass catchers only look at the receiving stats, whereas running backs it is in the entire offensive production.
Running Backs
In 2019 these thresholds indicated breakouts from Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, Jerrion Ealy, and Tyler Goodson. In 2018 Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, and Travis Etienne all accomplished this task. As you will see when we cover the pass-catcher, these running backs with elite production at a young age will hold the most value among skill positions, for this reason, we have a higher level of confidence in reaching for a running back in devy leagues than a wide receiver or tight end when the advanced metrics are in the same ballpark.
Some key takeaways from this data set are that three of the nine running backs listed were five-star prospects, four of them were four-star prospects, and just Jonathan Taylor (incorrectly) and Jerrion Ealy are the lone three-star prospects according to 247 Sports. We can see that having a high star level, which correlates to athleticism and production, along with having the opportunity to see the field as a freshman combine to become the “secret sauce” for becoming an elite running back prospect.
2021 Running Back Breakouts
TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State
Trey Sermon has moved on to the NFL, while Master Teague stays in Columbus for another season. Enter five-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson. The 5’11” and 195 lbs. prospect already has the size to be an NFL caliber running back, and he will surely fill out to 215 to 225 lbs. during his time at Ohio State. His elite speed, combined with vision and contact balance will earn him opportunities on Saturdays to make big plays for Ohio State. Being in the national spotlight each week means that now is the only time to draft Henderson at any remote value in your devy drafts. Bet on Ohio State’s high-pedigree running backs without remorse. Even if Henderson does not accomplish a freshman year breakout, he will maintain his value strictly based on hype.
Kamarro Edmonds, North Carolina
With Javonte Williams and Michael Carter both departing from North Carolina in the 2021 NFL Draft, they leave behind over 300 vacated rush attempts, 2,385 rushing yards, and 33 total TDs in the Mack Brown offense. With Sam Howell still at the reins, North Carolina will be gunning for Clemson’s spot in the College Football Championship. Edmonds is The University of North Carolina’s third highest-rated running back prospect of all time, and he should fill the void left by Javonte Williams as the power back in Howell’s offense.
Donovan Edwards, Michigan
A year ago many believed that Zach Charbonnet was the next big running back for the Wolverines. I had questions about his football acumen, but maybe it was injuries and a bad offensive line. Either way, I think Donovan Edwards is the real deal. He can be a true triple-threat back who can run between the tackles, catch the ball out of the backfield, and protect the quarterback in pass protection. Despite Michigan’s recent struggles and inability to get over the hill in Columbus, Edwards is a dark horse to be the first running back drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft if Michigan doesn’t hold him back too much.
Pass Catchers
In 2019 these thresholds indicated breakouts from David Bell and George Pickens. In 2018 Rondale Moore and Rashod Bateman both accomplished this task. In 2020 the pass catchers that hit these marks were Marvin Mims and Kyle Williams (who played a shortened season in the Pac-12).
This elite level of breakout does not occur as often for wide receivers as it does for running backs and pass catchers are harder to project from college to the NFL because for receivers it is much harder to separate how efficient an offensive system is relative to a receiver. With running backs we can more easily project forced missed tackles from college to the NFL, therefore devy running backs will always hold more value.
We rarely ever see tight ends appreciate dramatically in devy leagues, this is because of their slower development because of the difficulty of the position. A tight end needs to be able to block as well as tackles and catch the ball as fluidly as a wide receiver to say they have any significant value as an incoming freshman, which is an impossible task. For these reasons, we advise not to invest heavily in young tight ends and to focus on the receiver position.
2021 Pass Catcher Breakouts
Mario Williams, Oklahoma
Williams enters a completely flooded receiver room in Norman, so it is understandable if he doesn’t see the field as often as we’d like as a freshman. Williams balled out in the Oklahoma Spring Game making highlight plays every time you looked up at the television. His elite-level speed, balance, quickness, and soft hands are why I believe that he could see the field early and often for Lincoln Riley. He will also benefit from having a top quarterback throughout his time in Norman with Spencer Rattler and Caleb Williams throwing at him.
Deion Colzie, Notre Dame
Notre Dame quietly produces athletic wide receivers that produce in the NFL. The likes of Chase Claypool, Miles Boykin, Will Fuller, and Golden Tate are recent examples of wide receivers that are fantasy relevant, however, Boykin never truly panned out. Colzie is a 6’4” receiver with 4.5 40-yard dash speed, but what I like about Colzie is his highlight videos begin with playing cornerback, and blocking downfield. Why is this important? Because it shows he’s willing to do whatever it takes to get on the field. Three of Notre Dame’s top pass catchers from last year are no longer with the program, and I like Tyler Buchner to beat out Jack Coan for the starting job and to target his athletic fellow freshman often.
Bonus 2021 Breakout
Tyler Buchner, QB, Notre Dame
We saw during his time at Wisconsin that Jack Coan was not the answer at quarterback. Now he transfers to Notre Dame after their winningest quarterback in program history, Ian Book has graduated to the NFL. Buchner is a five-star prospect and raises the ceiling of the Notre Dame offense considerably. If he does get starts as a freshman, his stock is going to skyrocket.
Dark Horses Breakouts
We have covered all of the breakouts that are likely to happen based on pedigree and level of competition to get on the field, now let’s go through a list of unlikely players to breakout, but good buy-low options in deep devy and Campus to Canton league formats. These players are super athletic, and if they do see the field and produce in their freshman season, they will be tantalizing NFL prospects.
Brashard Smith, WR, Miami
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
JoJo Earle. WR, Alabama
Camar Wheaton, RB, Alabama
Trevion Cooley, RB, Louisville
Beaux Collins, WR, Clemson
Jake Briningstool, TE, Clemson
Preston Stone, QB, SMU
Malik McClain, WR, Florida State
Arian Smith, WR, Georgia
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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