In this series, we are going to do a deep dive into the top 2021 NFL Draft Class running backs, and see who they compare to historically. We are going to build them out from the standpoint of their physical acumen, their athletic abilities, and then bring it full circle by looking into their college production. Combining these three components we will settle on a final comparison that I believe most accurately outlines each player’s potential range of outcomes in the NFL. In this article, we will make comparisons for the top five running back prospects in the draft.
Najee Harris
Najee Harris is Alabama’s senior running back, in his career he rushed for 3,843 yards and 46 TDs. He also showed that he is a capable pass-catcher with two seasons with more than 25 receptions. He finished his career with 80 total catches for 781 yards and 11 TDs.
Physical: Najee Harris measured in at 6’1.4” and 232 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 30.61. Alabama’s power back projects to be a three-down back in the NFL and compares favorably to historical prospects such as Le’Veon Bell, James Conner, Chris “Beanie” Wells, and Jeremy Hill. All players who realized success at the NFL level.
Athletic: Due to an injured foot, Harris did not do any athletic testing during the Senior Bowl or the two Alabama Pro Days. Because of this, it will be tough to narrow down on athletic comparisons, but we will use proxy testing to dive deeper. Harris ran a 4.66-second 40-yard dash in high school, but he played faster than that, we will use a proxy of 4.52-seconds. This assumption would earn Harris a 111-Speed Score (86th percentile), a 387-RB Freak Score (92nd percentile), and a 454-Force Score (92nd percentile). These athletic metrics compare favorably to former Alabama star running back Derrick Henry, among others.
Even though Harris does not have an elite speed score at our assumed testing number, his RB Freak Score is elite. This metric is predictive for early-career TD production, athletically Harris checks all the boxes to be a successful running back in the NFL.
Production: Despite playing alongside Josh Jacobs, Damien Harris, and Bo Scarbrough for two seasons, Harris made up 44% of the Alabama rushing production during his four seasons in Tuscaloosa. Add to that Calvin Ridley, Irv Smith Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Cam Sims, and Robert Foster to the mix, and Harris still made up 20% of the Alabama total offensive production.
Harris had his best season in 2020 as a senior. He rushed for 1,466 yards and 26 TDs and hauled in 43 passes for 425 yards and four TDs. This equates to a 32% dominator rating, 2.09 yards per team play, and a 99th percentile production profile. The only players that dominated their opponents at this level have been Christian McCaffrey, Larry Johnson, and Brian Calhoun.
Final Comparison: Najee Harris is a power back that adds a pass-catching prowess, his best comparison is a meld between Le’Veon Bell and Larry Johnson. Harris plays in a style similar to Steven Jackson.
Travis Etienne
Travis Etienne is Clemson’s senior running back, in his career he rushed for 4,952 yards and 70 TDs. He also showed that he is a much-improved pass catcher with two seasons with more than 35 receptions. He finished his career with 102 total catches for 788 yards and eight TDs.
Physical: Travis Etienne measured in at 5’10.1” and 215 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 30.74. Clemson’s speedy back projects to be a three-down back in the NFL, and compares favorably to historical prospects such as Montee Ball, Cam Akers, Dalvin Cook, and Josh Jacobs. All players who realized elite success at the NFL level.
Athletic: Etienne ran a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at his Clemson Pro Day, confirming his game-breaking speed. Etienne earned a 113-Speed Score (91st percentile), a 362-RB Freak Score (75th percentile), and a 454-Force Score (84th percentile). Etienne also jumped 33.5” in the vert and 128” in the broad jump. He also ran the short shuttle in 4.37-seconds and the three-cone drill in 7.15-seconds. This compares favorably to some players that went on to be elite, Hall of Fame-worthy running backs.
Production: Travis Etienne earned a true freshman season breakout age at 18-years old and he won Clemson’s starting job early on. He went on to account for 40% of Clemson’s total rushing production and 23% of their overall offensive production. Etienne had three seasons that have above 90th percentile production profiles. Only Jonathan Taylor, Darren Sproles, and LaMichael James were able to accomplish this in a Power 5 conference. Steve Slaton and DeAngelo Williams notable accomplished this as well.
Etienne’s best season is splitting hairs between his sophomore and junior season. As a sophomore Etienne had 1,736 scrimmage yards and 26 TDs, but only 12 catches. As a junior, Etienne had 1,675 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs, and he showed a capable pass-catcher hauling in 28 passes. Etienne’s senior season with over 900 rushing yards and over 500 receiving yards joins a group of comparisons headlined by Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray, Joe Mixon, and C.J. Spiller.
Final Comparison: Etienne is a speedy back that developed elite pass-catching abilities, his best comparison is a meld between Dalvin Cook’s frame and Joseph Addai’s athleticism. Etienne plays in a style similar to the former Heisman winner Reggie Bush.
Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams is North Carolina’s junior running back, in his career he rushed for 2,297 yards and 29 TDs. He also showed that he is a decent pass-catcher with 50 receptions for 539 yards and four TDs.
Physical: Williams measured in at 5’9.5” and 212 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 30.85. North Carolina’s power back projects to be a potential three-down back in the NFL and compares favorably to historical prospects such as Shane Vereen, Montee Ball, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn at the NFL level.
Athletic: Williams ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at his Clemson Pro Day, which isn’t ideal, but it is within the threshold required to convert to a successful NFL running back. Williams earned a 96-Speed Score (49th percentile), a 329-RB Freak Score (40th percentile), and a 404-Force Score (40th percentile). Williams also jumped 36” in the vert and 123” in the broad jump. He also ran the short shuttle in 4.09-seconds and the three-cone drill in 6.97-seconds. Williams performed much better in the change of direction skills than his 40-time. This compares favorably to Alvin Kamara, Brandon Jackson, and Ryan Williams.
Production: Javonte Williams earned a sophomore season breakout age at 19-years-old as he shared the backfield duties with Michael Carter. He went on to account for 33% of Clemson’s total rushing production and 17% of their overall offensive production.
Williams’s best season was certainly his junior season. He had 1,445 scrimmage yards and 28 TDs with 405 yards coming on his 25 catches. Williams junior season compares favorably to Darrell Henderson, Travis Etienne, Dalvin Cook, and Luke Staley.
Final Comparison: Williams is an Alvin Kamara-lite back who has produced at an efficient rate in a less than stellar competition level conference. He runs with a similar style to Nick Chubb. He has decent, but not elite level, pass-catching skills based on what he has been asked to do.
Michael Carter
Michael Carter is North Carolina’s senior running back, in his career he rushed for 4,404 yards and 22 TDs. He also showed that he is a capable pass-catcher with 82 receptions for 656 yards and six TDs.
Physical: Carter measured in at 5’7.9” and 201 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 30.67. North Carolina’s space-creating back projects to be a third-down or change-of-pace back in the NFL, and compares favorably to historical prospects such as Brian Westbrook, Leon Hall, Ray Rice, Giovani Bernard, and Nyheim Hines at the NFL level.
Athletic: Williams ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash at his Clemson Pro Day, Carter earned a 98-Speed Score (55th percentile), a 314-RB Freak Score (23rd percentile), and a 397-Force Score (32nd percentile). Carter also jumped 34” in the vert and 119” in the broad jump. He also ran the short shuttle in 3.98-seconds and the three-cone drill in 6.81-seconds. Only eight other college running backs have cracked the 4-second barrier in the short shuttle ever. This compares favorably to Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, Giovani Bernard, Devin Singletary, and Brian Calhoun.
Production: Michael Carter earned a sophomore season breakout age at 19-years old. He went on to account for 33% of North Carolina’s total rushing production and 17% of their overall offensive production.
Carter’s best season was certainly his senior season. He had 1,512 scrimmage yards and 11 TDs with 267 yards coming on his 25 catches. Williams junior season compares favorably to Lynn Bowden Jr., Dri Archer, Travis Etienne, Jahvid Best, Reggie Bush, and Luke Staley.
Final Comparison: Williams is a Brian Westbrook back who has produced at an efficient rate in a less than stellar competition level conference. He runs with a similar style to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He projects as a change-of-pace or third-down back in the NFL, who may be asked to run between the tackles against lighter boxes.
Kenneth Gainwell
Kenneth Gainwell is Memphis’s redshirt sophomore running back, in his career he rushed for 1,505 yards and 14 TDs. He also showed that he is an elite pass-catcher with 57 receptions for 610 yards and three TDs.
Physical: Gainwell measured in at 5’8.4” and 201 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 30.22. Memphis’ receiving back projects to be a third-down or change-of-pace back in the NFL and compares favorably to historical prospects such as Brian Westbrook, Leon Washington, Steve Slaton, Ronnie Hillman, Nyheim Hines, and Bryce Love at the NFL level.
Athletic: Gainwell ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at his Clemson Pro Day, Carter earned a 105-Speed Score (71st percentile), a 326-RB Freak Score (35th percentile), and a 411-Force Score (46th percentile). Gainwell also jumped 35” in the vert and 121” in the broad jump. He also ran the short shuttle in 4.46-seconds and the three-cone drill in 7.26-seconds. This compares favorably to J.J. Arrington, DeAngelo Williams. Steve Slaton, Ray Rice, Ronnie Hillman, and Jerick McKinnon.
Production: Kenneth Gainwell earned a redshirt freshman season breakout age at 20-years old. He went on to account for 51% of Memphis’s total rushing production and 28% of their overall offensive production. He played alongside NFL star running back Antonio Gibson, making these production outputs incredibly impressive.
Gainwell’s best season was certainly his redshirt freshman season. He had 2,069 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs with 610 yards coming on his 51 catches. Gainwell’s redshirt freshman season compares favorably to Saquon Barkley, Jay Ajayi, Jacquizz Rodgers, Brian Calhoun, and Mewelde Moore.
Final Comparison: Gainwell is the closest thing the Steve Slaton that we have seen since his 2008 rookie season. Slaton is one of the biggest “What-ifs” in fantasy football. Slaton burst onto the scene with a 1,600-yard, 10 TD rookie season, then never returned to form from a brutal neck injury. Gainwell showed this upside with his 97th percentile production profile in 2019. Gainwell plays with a similar one-cut style to Raheem Mostert.
Though it is lacking in-depth, this is turning into a decent running back class. Harris and Etienne are the two elite options, however, many players could turn into elite fantasy options if put in the right situation… Be sure to tune in as we cover all the rookie coverage leading up and through the NFL Draft.
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