When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Christian McCaffrey could never be the player he once was, or that D.J. Moore is incapable of being a WR1.” But, these may just be false narratives. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Carolina Panthers’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
The Carolina Panthers may be one of the worst and lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL this season. That fact, however, does not mean they can’t have viable fantasy assets. This team is the embodiment of volume is more important than touchdowns or yards. Sam Darnold has no hope to be fantasy relevant. He is a known asset at this point in his career and that known value is a not very good fantasy QB. My projections show that outcome exactly, I am not drafting him in any leagues. Now for Christian McCaffrey, there is hope. He should see enough targets and a large enough touchdown share that he can still be an elite asset at runningback. Not to the levels we have seen in recent years where he would score 30 PPR ppg, but 20+ is no joke either. CMC projects to be a top-two RB for the 2022 season and should be treated as such, he is my 1.01 in redraft ad best ball this year. Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman offer nothing other than valuable handcuffs if McCaffrey were to get hurt. Picking the correct one before the season will be tough, so if you are volume drafting make sure to grab some of both. If you do under 10 leagues I would recommend avoiding them for players like Keaontay Ingram.
With the recent news of Baker Mayfield being potentially traded to Carolina I wanted to touch on how my expectations would change for this offense. I would expect Baker to be at about 21 ppg instead of the 16.6 I am expecting for Darnold. Baker is a much more efficient QB that will score many more touchdowns in a season. This in turn will take some targets away from CMC, as he is more capable and will be able to use his WRs and TEs more often, as opposed to feeling hurried and dumping off to the running back. I would have CMC at about 18 ppg in that scenario. DJM, Anderson, Marshall, and the TEs would all see a bump because of what was previously mentioned. Plus, more passing TDs and a more efficient offense in general. DJM moves up to 17.5 ppg, Anderson up to 9.0, Marshall up to 7.0, Thomas up to 3.5, and Tremble up to 7.5. Baker would bring life at QB to this offense that it currently does not have. Thus propelling all of the pass-catching assets forwards and making them good values at current ADPs.
D.J. Moore again shows us the power of volume. Moore is simply the best WR on the team and with no elite tight end either he will see a large share of targets. The Panthers will also be losing a lot and forced to the ball many times. This inflates the value of reliable weapons such as CMC and D.J. Moore which allows them to both be top 12 options at their positions. I have D.J. Moore projected to be a fringe WR1 so with some luck he could finally break through that barrier in 2022. The other wide receivers do not seem worth drafting to me due to the low output I expect from this offense. Robby Anderson could be seen as a solid handcuff for D.J. Moore but without that injury, I doubt Robby ever makes your lineup. Terrace Marshall is, unfortunately, set up for failure again in 2022. While 5.3 ppg would be an improvement for him he is still undraftable for the 2022 season. The tight end position is an afterthought in this offense and the same should go for your fantasy drafts, do not touch them. I prefer Tremble to Thomas but I would not recommend either.
I know this was overall a very harsh or negative article but sometimes they need to be delivered that way. I will never try to lie and spin a player’s positives to you just for the sake of typing positivity. I will always give my real opinions and unfortunately, some teams are just not very good or fantasy-friendly. This is one of those teams. Sam Darnold carries an ADP of QB41 on Underdog, if for some reason the QB41 needs to be rostered in your league you can draft Darnold, but in 98% of leagues, he should be on waivers. CMC has an ADP of RB2 and can be had anywhere in the first five picks of a draft. He is my 1.01, draft him if you get the chance. Foreman and Hubbard have ADPs of RB 60 and 65 respectively. This is fine, they are handcuffs and I have drafted them here as I have been volume drafting tournament teams on Underdog. D.J. Moore holds an ADP of WR16 currently and I do like the value of having him projected as a back-end WR1 to high-end WR2. The rest of the WRs and Irv Smith I would recommend avoiding, but if Robby Anderson falls a bit past his ADP of WR79 he is fine to grab in case this offense surprises us.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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