Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Kevin Harris

This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has NFL workhorse size and a great production profile but is somehow not in everyone’s top-12 rookie running backs yet.

Kevin Harris, RB South Carolina

When prospecting running backs I use these metrics and thresholds to determine which players I like and don’t like. I also look at weight and BMI to help get a sense of the size/build of the player. For weight I want my RB to be at 205 lbs. or higher; this is based on studying historical hit rates of RBs at various weights. It is not super important, but it is a data point and it is useful to know the weights of players. For BMI, I want my RB to be at 30.0 or more. I find this slightly more important than weight, and it is alright to be under, 30 is just optimal. Now that we know what we are searching for, let’s look at how Kevin Harris measures up.

Analytical Profile

As you can see in the above Tweet, Harris either hits every mark or is close enough to earn partial credit. It is not often that a player hits all five production marks (only seven since 2013 have), so a profile like this excites me. Hitting my scrimmage yards per game threshold means he was successful in both facets of the game, rushing and receiving. That is the number one goal when looking for a good rookie RB, both a viable rusher and receiving threat out of the backfield. Good career YPC also, people like to devalue this stat in the NFL but in my research, college yards per carry translates well to the NFL. If you can’t be efficient in college there is no way you’ll be efficient in the NFL. 

Dominant touchdown share, this shows his team trusted him on the goal-line but he also scored outside the red zone as well. He would not be able to amass over 70% of the team rush touchdowns if this was not the case. It also shows he dominated the backfield touches and handled a workhorse role. In fantasy, we want RBs that catch passes and score TDs, these are the game-breaking guys that give you RB1 overall potential. Kevin Harris earning a 12% reception share paired with his 70% touchdown share shows us that he is capable of this upside. Lastly, he hits the most important metric, yards per team play. This is the most important piece of evidence to show that Harris was an active member of the offense and one of the best players on his team. When you are the best player, the opposing team knows you are the best player, and you can still produce these numbers.

Chances are, you will be a good NFL player if given the opportunity. Which is the key for these prospects. Kevin Harris is currently not projected to be drafted in this first four rounds. This would make it very hard for him to see early opportunities in the NFL. But we have seen it, just look at Elijah Mitchell in 2021. It only took one injury to a backfield mate and he then outplayed third-round pick, Trey Sermon, to earn a starting role.  

Conclusion

Kevin Harris weighed in at the combine at 5’10” and 221 lbs. This gives him a BMI of 31.7 and puts him in the tier of workhorse size. He also managed to earn an 89th percentile Burst Score at the combine, although he neglected to run the 40-yard dash. These numbers mean a team will not be afraid to give him a lot of touches and he is athletic enough to create yards with those touches. Harris is a player that should be cemented in the top twelve of your rookie RB rankings. He is currently my RB6 as a pre-draft prospect. If he gets drafted on day two of the NFL draft he could move as far up as four for me in this class. He has a good production profile, he has workhorse size, and he has shown skill as a receiver. Kevin Harris will be one of my favorite players to draft and he is a name you should keep tabs on.

Here are the links to my other rookie prospecting articles if you are interested in seeing what I have to say about them: Tyler Allgeier, RB BYU, Jerome Ford, RB Cincinnati.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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