Over the last few weeks, I revealed wide receivers 15-6 in my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their Dynasty Rookie Drafts. You can find 15-11 here and 10-6 here. This article covers the top five prospects before draft capital is figured in. I will publish a final version of the WR1 after the draft is complete so be on the lookout for that.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future Dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here.
Before we get into the 2023 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value. As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. 17 of the top 20 prospect scores have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy PPG season. 14 of those 20 have had a top 12 fantasy PPG season
With that let’s go ahead and dive into the 2023 class.
5) Jalin Hyatt
The Good
Kicking off our top five is Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt had a monster breakout junior year with 1,267 yards and 12 touchdowns. This was highlighted by his otherwordly game vs Alabama when he went off for 207 yards and five touchdowns. That singular game put him on the map as a potential first-round pick in the NFL draft.
One of the metrics with the highest correlation to future NFL success is receiving yards per team pass attempt and Hyatt shines here with a 3.22 mark which was third best in the class. This added a tidy ten points to his overall WR1 model score.
This model uses legend Lance Zeirlein’s film study grades for prospects. Lance had Hyatt as his top-rated wide-receiving prospect in this class at a 6.50 grade contributing seven points to Hyatt’s overall score. Zeirlein writes “Hyatt has top-end speed that creates tension for defensive coordinators. The run game will see lighter boxes out of the defense’s respect for his explosiveness. Tears into cushions and rockets past off-man coverage.” We need to be cognizant of a player like this that he brings value outside of fantasy production and this will improve his draft capital.
The Bad
Ultimately, what we are trying to forecast in our Dynasty Rookie Drafts is which prospects will produce the most NFL fantasy points per game. Naturally, their college fantasy points per game are a natural correlation to this. Hyatt’s 13.8 PPG is modest and largely influenced by lackluster productivity in his first two years of college. Two points were deducted from his overall WR1 score in this category.
The Ugly
We want to see our elite prospects break out in their freshman or sophomore year. The fact Hyatt failed to do so is a red flag on his resume. Age-adjusted production is a big factor in this model and as a result, Hyatt lost a point toward his overall model score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jalin Hyatt’s score of 39 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
4) Quentin Johnston, TCU
The Good
Johnston’s top contributing metric is his projected first-round draft capital. If he drops to Round 2 he would fall behind Marvin Mims, if Mims is also drafted in Round 2. Johnston’s draft capital added 13 points to his overall WR1 model score.
Johnston’s had two additional shining analytic attributes on his resume. First, was his freshman breakout year when he crossed the 20% weighted dominator (share of the team’s yardage and touchdowns) threshold. The second was a Relative Athletic Score of 8.69. Johnston’s 6’3 inch height and 40.5-inch vertical leap make him a contested catch marvel. This contributed 14 points toward his overall score.
The Bad
Johnston’s 14.4 college career fantasy points per game are not what we want to see out of elite prospects. The best future prospects cross the 20FPPG threshold.
The Ugly
While he crossed the 20% weighted dominator threshold early (as a freshman), Johnston failed to improve much on this mark with a best-season mark of only 24.2%. This was the lowest result of any of the top-ten prospects in this model and subtracted two points from his overall score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Quentin Johnston’s score of 40 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
3) Jordan Addison, USC
The Good
Addison put up mind-blowing numbers his sophomore year at Pitt, helping Kenny Pickett get first-round draft capital. His 1593 yards and 17 touchdowns as a sophomore gave him his best season RYPTPA of 2.94 and weighted dominator of 34.7%. Both are solid numbers.
His best number however was his college career fantasy PPG of 23.5. This was the top result of the class for this metric and gained him five points to his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
I found this tweet from Scott Barrett very interesting. Mark Whipple tends to pump up his best wide receiver to be the only focal point of the offense. His list of past wide receivers to post big college numbers only to flame out in the NFL is getting longer. He even helped middling prospect Trey Palmer to a 1000-yard season and a 4th-year breakout this year. It goes for noting that Addison’s junior year production at USC was roughly half of what it was at Pitt.
The Ugly
Addison cratered during his Combine performance. His 5.95 Relative Athletic Score is the lowest of any of the top-10 prospects in the WR1 model. He has a slender body type at 5’11, 171 lbs., and posted poor marks in the shuttle and three-cone drill. His worst performance was his vertical of 34 inches.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jordan Addison’s score of 39 gives him a 70.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
2) Josh Downs, UNC
The Good
Josh Downs is as sound analytically as they come. He is one of only two wide receivers in this class who would rank in the top five of last year’s wide receiver class based on his analytical profile. If I were in an NFL draft war room I would be pounding the table for him as a prospect.
Receiving yards per team pass attempt is one of the more predictive metrics for future fantasy success in the NFL. Downs 3.52 mark was the top RYPTPA score in this class and contributed 12 points to his overall WR1 model score. He was a model of consistent excellence throughout his college career which led to a college career fantasy points per game of 20.8, good for third in the class. Downs was one of only two prospects in the top 10 overall in the model with a weighted dominator above 35%. He easily eclipsed this with a 38.3% mark.
Despite his diminutive stature Downs had a very good Relative Athletic Score of 8.97. This was second among the top-ten prospects in the model. His agility testing was particularly strong with a 4.15 shuttle time and a 6.75 in the three-cone drill.
The Bad
In the top two, we have a higher measuring stick. While the ACC is not a bad conference, it is not the SEC by any means. This may be a reach but Downs has that clean of a profile.
The Ugly
The only significant red flag in Downs’s resume is his size at 5’9” and 171 lbs. This will be his biggest obstacle to overcome at the NFL level.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Josh Downs’s score of 51 gives him an 81.4% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The Good
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is as blue chip a prospect as you will ever find. His analytical profile is pristine. I have said several times that his 3.25 receiving yards per team pass attempt mark while playing alongside the two best rookie wide receivers in the NFL this year, while younger than both, is as impressive an analytical metric performance as you will see. We already know how good Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are and they are currently valued as the WR5 and WR8 Dynasty wide receivers overall on Keep Trade Cut.
Smith-Njigba finished his sophomore year with an outstanding 95 receptions, 1,606 yards, and nine touchdowns in 13 games as compared to Garrett Wilson’s 1,058 yards in 12 games and Chris Olave’s 936 yards in 11 games. Couple this with high first-round draft capital and this contributes 30 points to JSN’s overall WR1 model score.
Smith-Njigba also meets the criteria for future stardom with his early declare status, 6.41 film grade, sophomore year weighted dominator breakout, and 30% best season weighted dominator. I have Smith-Njigba as my third overall-rated prospect in Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
The Bad
Some question JSN’s vertical speed and his 40-time and 10-yard splits are certainly not great at 4.52 and 1.65 respectively. However, his agility scores are truly elite. The only wide receivers with first-round draft capital and a sub 4.0 20-yard shuttle are Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks, Julio Jones, Rashuan Woods, and Amari Cooper.
The Ugly
JSN’s only other red flag comes from his “injury-plagued” junior season which also resulted in his college career fantasy points per game being lower than desired as prospects generally have their more productive years in their older age seasons. Was he injured or was he already assured of his round-one draft status from his incredible sophomore campaign? We may never know the answer to this. What we do know is Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the bar none
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jaxon Smith Njigba’s score of 60 gives him a 91.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, Grinding the Mocks, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman prospect database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
