Over the next few weeks, I will reveal my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their Dynasty Rookie Drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 10-6 in the model.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here.
Before we get into the 2023 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value. As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. Seventeen of the top 20 prospect scores have gone on to have a top-24 fantasy PPG season. Fourteen of those 20 have had a top-12 fantasy PPG season
With that let’s go ahead and dive into the 2023 class.
10) Rashee Rice, TCU
The Good
Kicking off our top ten wide receivers is Rashee Rice of the TCU Hornfrogs. Rice is one of the more athletic wideouts in the class. His 9.52 Relative Athletic Score was fifth overall in this class. Rice arrived on the scene earlier than five prior prospects in the rankings with a second
Year breakout crossing the 20% weighted dominator threshold. But it was his senior year when he blew up. Rice led the Hornfrogs with a lofty 1,355 yards receiving. This was good for 2.85 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt which added three points to Rice’s overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Rice achieved only a modest 15.1 fantasy points per game in his college career. Elite prospects eclipse the 20.0 FPPG threshold. Rice received a two-point deduction in this metric.
The Ugly
Rice achieved only modest success his junior year failing to build off a successful breakout sophomore year. This led to him returning for his senior year of college. Failing to declare early is a big red flag for a prospect as it usually means the NFL provided feedback they weren’t quite ready to enter the league and wouldn’t get significant draft capital. Rice lost five points toward his overall WR1 score due to this fact
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Rashee Rice’s score of 18 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
9) Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
The Good
There is a hive of analysts who prefer Cedric Tillman to Jalin Hyatt, who is expected to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft. It was Tillman who had an excellent junior season for the Volunteers with 1,081 yards receiving while Hyatt only had 226 yards. This led to an outstanding Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt mark of 3.14 good for fourth overall in this class. RYPTPA is one of the bigger contributors to the overall WR1 score and this mark added 10 points to Tillman’s final grade.
The Bad
Ideally, we want to see our prospects achieve a 20% weighted dominator breakout in their freshman or sophomore years of college. Tillman did not break out until he was a junior. This deducted one point from his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
In hindsight, Tillman likely wishes he had declared for the draft after his junior season. Injuries left Tillman with weak production in his senior year and in turn his draft capital is likely to suffer. Tillman had five points deducted from his overall WR1 score because he did not declare early for the NFL draft.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Cedric Tillman’s score of 21 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
8) Tyler Scott
The Good
Lance Zeirlein is a legend in the prospect film sphere. The release of his annual film grades is like Christmas for data analysts such as myself. His accuracy is why I utilize his grades in my model. Scott shines in his film grade for Zeirlein with a 6.35. Zeirlein writes, “Scott is very fluid and athletic in his movements. Able to accelerate to top speed very quickly. Former high school running back with excellent run-after-catch talent. Offers dynamic versatility due to his skill set.”
The Bad
You need to be a little careful with the RYPTPA metric. What most analysts use is the prospect’s receiving yards for the season divided by the team’s passing attempts for the season. However, this can be deceiving when a player misses games. For this reason, I use RYPTPAPG which only counts the games that the prospect was active in. Tyler Scott missed three games last year so his RYPTPAPG is not so bad at 2.62 (vs 2.17). However, his breakout year being his junior season is not what we want to see. Most of the top prospects have already achieved breakout status by their freshman or sophomore season. Scott lost a point toward his overall score for a breakout year.
The Ugly
Scott’s 10.6 college career fantasy points per game are quite bad. This ranks outside of the top 20 prospects in the class. He is in that range of drafts where I would rather invest in running-back depth pieces who could contribute to a roster due to attrition at that position. After all, this is the direct metric that we want to be productive for our fantasy teams.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Tyler Scott’sscore of 20.0 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
7) Zay Flowers, Boston College
The Good
This ranking will come as a shock to many as Flowers is expected to be a round one NFL draft selection and could be the WR2 selected overall. He is at the end of a tier in this model. After Flowers, there is quite a drop-off. Later round two and round three will largely be running back and tight end land for me in dynasty rookie drafts.
Flowers expected round-one draft capital gives him a whopping 13 points toward his overall score of 30 in the WR1 model. His weighted dominator is his most impressive metric outside of expected draft capital. This ranks fourth overall in the class and added five points to his overall score.
The Bad
As we enter the top tier of ranks we need to be a little harder on our prospect grading as to what is considered bad. It is interesting that Flowers was able to achieve a weighted dominator of 40.5% while only having an RYPTPAPG of 2.45. We like to see our elite prospects hit a threshold of 3.0 or higher. He was also just ok when it came to college career fantasy points per game of 15.1. Considering he had a senior year to build up that number you would like to see it be higher.
The Ugly
Flowers is the highest ranked non-early declare in this class but nonetheless, he did not declare early. This is his biggest red flag by far. Declaring early for the NFL is tantamount to receiving an endorsement by the NFL that you are good enough to enter the league as a junior. Flowers had five points deducted from his overall WR1 score due to this.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Zay Flowers’s score of 30 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
6) Marvin Mims, Oklahoma
The Good
There is a lot to like about Mim’s profile. He is solid across the board but a few areas stand above the rest. First Mims broke out as a freshman at Oklahoma eclipsing the 20% weighted dominator threshold. He had 610 yards receiving and an impressive nine touchdowns. This earned Mims six points toward his overall WR1 score. We also like to see the gradual improvement from year to year from our prospects and this was the case with Mim’s. His sophomore year produced 705 yards receiving and his junior year came in at 1083 yards.
Mims gets five points added to his score for declaring early for the NFL draft. During the combine, Mims also had an impressive showing.
The Bad
Per NFL Mock Draft Database, Mims is currently slated to be a round three pick in the NFL Draft. This is not ideal but also not the end of the world. Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, and Cooper Kupp were all third round picks. But this is about probability and the probability of success gets slimmer as you get later in the draft.
The Ugly
Mims is consistently among the higher average depth of target wide receivers in college football. He hasn’t been a high-volume reception player. The PPR PPG metric captures the reception piece of fantasy points for the prospect’s profile. Mims only had a 13.1 PPR PPG mark in his time at Oklahoma. This was only 17th among all prospects.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps, Marvin Mims’ score of 32 gives him a 63.5% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, Grinding the Mocks, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman prospect database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your Dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
