As Dynasty Fantasy Football Managers, this time of year is one of the most exciting. The NFL Draft is upon us and we finally get to have landing spots for the rookies we have spent the last few months evaluating and debating. For handicappers, this week also provides a golden opportunity, betting on the NFL Draft. The sportsbooks are working with all the same information we are this week and this week is notoriously bad for the sportsbooks. As Dynasty managers, we have a massive edge in this market thanks to our time spent studying film and analytics. This market is also extremely volatile to news and reporting so be prepared for lines to have massive swings much more so than typical in-season wagers. Line changes can occur for several different reasons but a bet I may like here at one price may not apply if the juice (gambling odds) changes. All of our odds for today will be provided by FanDuel Sportsbook from April 24th and 12:00 PM EST.
Starting From the Top, 1.01
BETS: First Overall Pick
PASS
The same two players have been the two favorites to be the first overall pick since last year’s draft ended. Bryce Young (-2400) and CJ Stroud (15-1). At many points, you could have gotten some great value on Bryce Young but I think the time to pull the trigger on the 1.01 has passed. Some gamblers may disagree with me on this one but I will not be laying $240 of my hard money to win $10, or $2,400 to win $100. Sure profit is profit but if this has all been a smoke screen by the Carolina Panthers and they take another quarterback or player; it is a complete disaster that can wreck your bankroll if you laid too many units on it. Be the adult and be patient, there is a lot of potential value on the draft board, we don’t need to jump in front of a subway car just to try and grab a nickel.
The Rest of the Top 10
BETS: Second Overall Pick – Tryee Wilson (+340): 0.5u, Will Anderson (+340): 0.5u
I do see lots of value in the rest of the top 10 though, starting right away with the 1.02. Currently sitting at (-120), Will Levis is the favorite to be drafted by the Houston Texans. While I think a quarterback makes a lot of sense here, rumors suggest the Texans are more interested in taking a pass rusher at 1.02. While trading down from there could make sense to let another team take a quarterback, the two teams most interested in such a move are the Colts and Titans, both members of the AFC South and thus not teams the Texans are interested in doing any favors for. I think the real value is on Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson both at (+340)(These lines moved from (+380) and (+300) respectively). I would put a half unit on each and if there is no trade at 1.02, looking to lock in my first profit on the draft after the 2nd overall pick.
BETS: Third Overall Pick – CJ Stroud (+270): 1.0u, Anthony Richardson (+500): 0.5u, Will Levis (+1000): 0.5u
At 1.03, CJ Stroud (+270) and Tryee Wilson (+270) are cofavorites to come off the board next. Despite Arizona not being in need of a quarterback, I love the quarterbacks here. This feels like a pick that will be traded to someone looking for a quarterback with the Colts at 1.04 and in need of a signal caller and everyone knows it. Teams interested in a quarterback will have a huge interest in getting in front of Indianapolis to get the guy they prefer. With the size of the payouts for Will Levis (+1000) and Anthony Richardson (+500), we can hedge and play each of the quarterbacks.
BETS: Fourth Overall Pick
PASS
At 1.04 the odds are sharply priced toward a quarterback. I think accurately so. I do not see a lot of value to be gained from this pick from a gambling perspective. Not only do you need to know which guys went 1.02 and 1.03 but you also need to know how the Colts feel about each of these players. At 1.03 we were able to cover the market because the payouts were high enough for the quarterbacks. At 1.04 you would be paying rake for the most part. Right now Will Levis (+130) is the favorite with Stroud (+210) and Richardson (+300) behind him.
BETS: Fifth Overall Pick-10th Overall Pick
PASS
While there is definitely potential value in the back half of the top 10 picks, I think Vegas has done an excellent job of pricing the favorites well enough to scare me away. I do not mind taking some long shots here in this range but the payout has to be good. This could be a point in the draft where I am looking more into live betting as opposed to doing it pre-flop. The payout will be less but working with better information could make it worth it.
Position Markets
BETS: Under 3.5 WRs taken in the 1st Round (-125): 1.25u
So I do believe there are more than 3.5 WRs who have the talent to be 1st round picks, but we have had such a huge influx of WR talent that there are only a certain number of teams that really need WRs. This WR class doesn’t have quite the same number of true studs that we have had in past seasons. We may need to sweat this bet out down the stretch of Thursday night but I think the under is good money for that market.
BETS: Dalton Kincaid First TE Drafted (+130)
Michael Mayer (-175) remains the odds-on favorite at this point but Kincaid has built up a ton of momentum with both NFL and Dynasty scouts alike. While Mayer might have all the skills of a traditional tight end, the upside presented with Kincaid’s athletic ability make him intriguing and it wouldn’t surprise me if he went ahead of Michael Mayer as he has in many mock drafts already. The price at (+130) implies a 43.48% chance of Kincaid going before any other tight end and I will happily play those odds.
Player Markets
BETS: Bijan Robinson Draft Position Over 12.5 (-114): 1.14u
In Dynasty Rookie Drafts he should be the 1.01 in all formats. You will not hear me say a negative word about his talent or ability. Bijan is a truly special back. Recently though, NFL teams are learning that RBs do not have as much impact on wins and losses as other positions do. I think he will still be a 1st round pick but I predict he will fall more toward the middle or the back end of the 1st as opposed to being an earlier pick.
BETS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft Position Under 12.5 (+250): 0.5u
It is the payout here that intrigues me. JSN has become the mostly consensus WR1 for NFL teams at this stage and with the recent success of previous Buckeye wide receivers, he should not have a long wait on draft night. Referring back to implied odds, a (+250) payout gives you an implied odds of 28.57%. I think there is at least a 30% chance he goes in the top 12 so I will happily put some money down on my favorite WR in this draft class. Note that the team at pick 1.12 is the Texans and could definitely use a little help in their WR room.
BETS: Dalton Kincaid Draft Position Under 24.5 (-122): 1.22u
If I think he will be the first tight end drafted then this bet seems like a nice way to build a correlated betting portfolio for the weekend. There are several teams drafting in the middle of the 1st round that could use help at the tight end position. The Packers at pick 15, the Lions at pick 18, the Seahawks at pick 20, and the Chargers at pick 21, just to name a few. This bet could also still hit even if we miss on Kincaid as the first tight end off the board. It is a way to double down on Kincaid while not risking too much on one individual wager.
Thanks so much for reading, if you want to discuss more reach me on Twitter, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!
