Over the next few weeks, I will be revealing my annual WR1 prospect model ratings to help prepare DFF readers for their dynasty rookie drafts. This article covers the prospects ranked 15-11 in the model.
For those new to the WR1 rating, this is a proprietary formula I developed to provide a data-driven forecast of future dynasty value for incoming rookie wide receivers. The WR1 model scores rookies on nine predictive metrics and then combines those individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating score. The goal is to provide a single easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend all the time dissecting different metrics.
You may find an in-depth explanation of the model’s process and a glossary of what the metrics mean here.
Before we get into the 2023 prospects, here are the top 20 all-time prospects in the model so you can see how effective it is at forecasting future fantasy value. As you can see this is a highly accurate predictor of future fantasy success. 17 of the top 20 prospect scores have gone on to have a top 24 fantasy PPG season. 14 of those 20 have had a top 12 fantasy PPG season.
With that let’s go ahead and dive into the 2023 class.
15) Jayden Reed, Michigan St.
| WR1 Rating | Competition Scor. | Film Grade | Proj.
Draft Round |
Early Declare | Relative Athletic Score | Breakout Year | Weighted Dominator Rating | PPR PPG Avg | RYPTPAPG – best |
| Total | Big 10 | 5.98 | 4 | No | 6.73 | 1 | 34.1% | 15.3 | 2.57 |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | -5 | -5 | -1 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
The Good
Jayden Reed had an accomplished college career achieving a coveted first-year breakout crossing the weighted dominator threshold of 20% in his freshman year. His college career peaked in 2021 when as a junior he had 1026 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. This was good for a 2.57 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Per Game and gave Reed three points towards his total WR 1 score.
The Bad
Reed has sub-par athleticism which deducted one point from his WR1 score. His Relative Athletic Score is a 6.73 out of 10. His long speed was solid posting a 4.45 forty-yard dash. However, this was dragged down by weak measurables in height (5’10), weight (187 pounds), bench press (13 reps) and vertical jump (33.5 inches).
The Ugly
Reed had a highly productive junior year so it was a surprise to see him return for his senior season. But this usually means he was not going to get the needed draft capital to make it worthwhile to enter the draft. Unfortunately for Reed his senior year was not as productive as his junior year. Reed received -5 points on his overall WR1 score for not declaring early.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Jayden Reed’s score of 1.0 gives him a 28% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
14) Andrei Iosivas, Princeton
| WR1 Rating | Competition Scor. | Film Grade | Proj.
Draft Round |
Early Declare | Relative Athletic Score | Breakout Year | Weighted Dominator Rating | PPR PPG Avg | RYPTPAPG – best |
| Total | Ivy | 5.99 | 6 | No | 9.95 | 3 | 40.8% | 14.7 | 2.70 |
| 7.0 | 0 | 0 | -15 | -5 | 15 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
The Good
Iosivas is an under-the-radar prospect but certainly became more renowned after his combine performance. Iosivas scored an incredible 9.95 (out of 10). His measurables included a 4.43 forty-yard dash showing superior long speed for a player 6’3 inches tall. Combine this with a vertical of 39 inches and you have the makings of a contested catch marvel. His agility was also outstanding for a player of his size. He posted a 20-yard shuttle time of 4.12 and three-cone of 6.85.
He did show he was more than just an uber athlete while at Princeton. He posted an impressive 2.70 receiving yards per team pass attempt per game (RYPTPAPG). Iosivas is someone I will be watching closely on draft day. His weighted dominator was also excellent at 40.8%, good for third overall in this class.
The Bad
Iosivas had a career PPR Fantasy point per game average of 14.7. To overcome his two big red flags (in the ugly section), you wanted to see this mark be higher. This ranked 13th in the class overall.
The Ugly
Iosivas has two big red flags. One of these can still be fixed. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Iosivas is expected to go in round six of the NFL draft. Round six wide receivers have a very low hit rate. Hit rate drops precipitously once you reach round four but of course there are gems to be had there such as Amon Ra St. Brown.
This is partially baked into his draft capital but another big red flag for Iosivas is his low level of competition. He comes from the Ivy League and played FCS-level cornerbacks and did not have to compete for targets against top-end talent.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Andrei Iosivas’s score of 7.0 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
13) Nathaniel Dell, Houston
| WR1 Rating | Competition Scor. | Film Grade | Proj.
Draft Round |
Early Declare | Relative Athletic Score | Breakout Year | Weighted Dominator Rating | PPR PPG Avg | RYPTPAPG – best |
| Total | AAC | 6.25 | 3 | No | 5.79 | 3 | 36.2% | 21.1 | 2.90 |
| 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -1 | -1 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
The Good
One of the great things about using an analytical model to rank players is that it is completely unbiased. Otherwise, I would probably have Nathaniel Dell several spots higher than this as he is just such a fun player to watch. He wins routes with exceptional agility and precise route running. Dell posted an elite 21.1 fantasy points per game throughout his career at Houston. This ranked second in the class to Jordan Addison. His RYPTPAPG was a stellar 2.90 good for 7th overall in the class. Dell also posted a strong weighted dominator rating (% market share of team’s receiving yards and TD’s) of 36.2 which finished at sixth overall among 2023 prospects.
The Bad
Ideally, we want to see a player breakout (achieve a 20% weighted dominator) in their freshman or sophomore years. Dell was a junior when he broke out. This deducted one point from his overall WR1 score.
The Ugly
There is no getting around it. Dell is tiny. If Anthony Richardson is this class’s Thor, Dell is Ant-Man. But the NFL has been prioritizing talent over prototype size in recent years. Players such as Jaylen Waddle, Rondale Moore, Devonta Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave are ushering in a new archetype of wide receiver that is far from the Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson’s of years past.
As the Relative Athletic Score is size adjusted it makes it impossible for a player of Dell’s height and weight to perform well in that metric. Dell’s 5.79 RAS score is one of the lowest in this wide receiver class.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Nathaniel Dell’s score of 7.0 gives him a 41.7% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
12) A.T. Perry, Wake Forest
| WR1 Rating | Competition Scor. | Film Grade | Proj.
Draft Round |
Early Declare | Relative Athletic Score | Breakout Year | Weighted Dominator Rating | PPR PPG Avg | RYPTPAPG – best |
| Total | ACC | 6.26 | 3 | No | 9.84 | 4 | 31.7% | 16.8 | 2.49 |
| 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -5 | 15 | -8 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
The Good
As we move up the ranks we start to see prospects perform well across more of the metrics. For A.T. Perry he shined in Lance Zeirlein’s film grade with a 6.26 grade. Zeirlein is one of the premier film experts in the country and this is the third year I have incorporated his film grade into this analytical model to give it a nice blend of film and data. Perry also crushed the combine. His 9.84 Relative athletic score ranked fourth in this class. He has an excellent combination of height 6’3, speed 4.47 forty-yard dash, and agility 6.81. These each graded out as elite for Perry. Perry also posted good marks for weighted dominator and receiving yards per team pass attempt receiving three points for each towards his total score of 13.0
The Bad
Perry is another prospect who did not declare early for the draft This is a sizeable red flag in his profile which keeps him from being in the top tier of prospects.
The Ugly
Perry was a very late bloomer. His fourth-year weighted breakout is not at all what you want to see out of a top prospect. This deducted eight points from his overall score.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps A.T. Perry’s score of 13.0 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
11) Kayshon Boutte, LSU
| WR1 Rating | Competition Scor. | Film Grade | Proj.
Draft Round |
Early Declare | Relative Athletic Score | Breakout Year | Weighted Dominator Rating | PPR PPG Avg | RYPTPAPG – best |
| Total | SEC | 6.16 | 3 | Yes | 5.17 | 1 | 21.8% | 15.2 | 2.18 |
| 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 6 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
The Good
Kayshon Boutte was a heralded five-star recruit when he landed at Louisiana State University. He delivered on his lofty recruiting status achieving a freshman year breakout on 735 yards receiving and five touchdowns. After the 2020 season ended Boutte was looked at as the top overall 2023 draft-eligible wide receiver by most in the dynasty world. His freshman breakout year added six points to his overall WR1 score.
The Bad
Unfortunately, his freshman season ended up being his best season. Boutte did not follow the typical ascension of most players in their college career where their best season marks are in the junior or senior years. Boutte’s weighted dominator of 21.8% and college career fantasy points per game, 15.2, were subpar and deducted two points each from his overall WR1 model score.
The Ugly
It only got worse for Boutte after a junior season in Coach Brian Kelly’s doghouse. Boutte’s combine performance was simply bad. His Relative Athletic Score was the second lowest in this draft class among prospects expected to be drafted.
The Bottom Line
Based on historical comps Kayshon Boutte’s score of 14 gives him a 54.2% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Thank you to Player Profiler, Lance Zierlein, Grinding the Mocks, NFL Mock Draft Database, and Spaceman prospect database for supplying data. Some of these metrics are dynamic and may change after this article is published.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
