This is the third installment of our redraft value debates where @DFF_Karp and I go through some fantasy players that we feel differently about. This article will go into depth on Baker Mayfield, I’ll be telling you why he is a top 10 option at the position while @DFF_Karp will be taking the anti-Baker approach. For reference, @DFF_Karp has Baker Mayfield as his number 15 quarterback in his redraft rankings.
College Stats
Baker Mayfield played four years of college football starting at Texas Tech in 2013. During his one season with the Red Raiders, Mayfield played eight games completing 64.1% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not bad for a freshman season but nothing to necessarily write home about. In his sophomore year, Mayfield transferred to Oklahoma where he would finish out his college career. Over three seasons with the Sooners, Mayfield put up 119 touchdowns to just 21 interceptions. His completion percentage was 68.1% his sophomore year, 70.9% his junior year, and 70.5% his senior year. His completion percentage in his senior year was enough to be ranked the highest in the nation. Mayfield likely needed to clear off some space on his mantle as he took home a bevy of awards including the AP Player of the Year, Davey O’Brien Award for Most Outstanding Quarterback, and the Heisman Trophy among a couple of others.
I think it is safe to say that in college, Baker Mayfield was elite, albeit a bit polarizing. He did have a run-in with the law which led to a viral video of him being tackled by police officers after being cited for public intoxication. He also had the infamous flag-planting victory celebration following Oklahoma’s win over Ohio State. Despite these moments, the Cleveland Browns made the decision to take him as the number one overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Draft Capital
In fantasy football, we often look to draft capital as a way to gauge how much a team likes their draft picks or to get a sense of how often they may play. That is more used for skill position players like running backs and tight ends, but I think it is important to note that the Browns took Mayfield over the likes of Saquon Barkley, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. At the time, Darnold was viewed as the safest option, and many insiders thought he was the obvious choice at the time. Now, if the Browns could do it all over again, certainly they’d take Lamar Jackson, but at the time of the draft, there were some who felt he projected more like a running back. With Nick Chubb being taken in the second round in that same draft, the Browns felt the combo of Mayfield and Chubb was a better direction for their future.
Rookie Season
The Browns made the choice to allow Mayfield to sit on the bench to start the year and watch Tyrod Taylor run their offense. That year, Taylor had a pretty rough four-game stretch. He threw for two touchdowns and two interceptions while completing under 50% of his passes. After Taylor got injured in his fourth game, the Browns made the obvious choice to hand the reigns over to Mayfield.
Playing in 13 games in a rookie year with receiving options of Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway, Mayfield was able to throw for over 3,700 yards, 27 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. During that time he was able to lead his team to four fourth-quarter comebacks and five game-winning drives. Mayfield showed his rookie season that he had the ability to lead his team and put up big fantasy numbers at the same time. The stage was set for a massive sophomore season for Mayfield especially after they brought in Odell Beckham Jr.
Sophomore Season
After his rookie season, the Browns were able to bring in Odell Beckham Jr onto the team to give Mayfield another big-time weapon. Odell was widely regarded as a top 10 wide receiver if not the top five at the time. Things didn’t go quite as well for Mayfield in his sophomore campaign seeing essentially every fantasy-relevant statistic plummet from year one to year two. Mayfield was essentially un-startable for the second half of the season. Now, some could chalk this up to Mayfield not being what we thought he was and regressing to what is his new norm. I propose that his sophomore year was an anomaly that will be corrected in 2020, and that leaves us in a massive buy-low window currently.
Optimism for the future (age, offense, offensive line help, TE help, healthy OBJ, water finds its level).
In 2019 Mayfield was behind what Pro Football Focus ranked as the 23rd worst offensive line in football. Furthermore, Odell Beckham Jr had core muscle surgery in January of 2020 which he indicated he had played through for all 16 games in 2019, affecting his production. Additionally, David Njoku was not healthy all year, leaving Mayfield to rely on a hodge-podge of tight end options, most notably Ricky Seals-Jones.
Putting 2019 behind us, we can expect in 2020 that Mayfield will have a healthy Beckham Jr, a new weapon in tight end Austin Hooper, and a re-tooled offensive line. With the 10th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns selected offensive tackle Jedrick Willis Jr who should immediately slot into a starting role. Further, they added Jack Conklin to bookend at tackle with Wills which should allow Mayfield more time in the pocket when he drops back to pass.
With a full year of Kareem Hunt coming out of the backfield catching passes, Austin Hooper, a healthy Beckham Jr, and a retooled offensive line, look for Mayfield to have a massive surge this year. Water finds its level, and I think Mayfield will positively regress back to where he was throughout his college career and his rookie year. Mayfield should bounce back to being a top 10 quarterback and look to take advantage of his low rankings to get him onto your fantasy team this season.
You can find me @DFF_ZTrain on Twitter – give me a follow and reach out to chat about anything and everything fantasy football related!
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