@DFF_Karp and I are breaking down the Derrius Guice debate for 2020 redraft formats. I’ll be giving you information as to why I believe Guice is a great “bang-for-the-buck” running back to target in your redraft leagues. Meanwhile, @DFF_Karp will be telling you why he will not be drafting Derrius Guice at his current average draft position. Now, on to the evidence.
Pro Derrius Guice Side
As you’ll see in this article, Derrius Guice is not a surefire top ten running back this year. He is a breakout candidate that you can find in the middle rounds of redraft leagues. When looking at Guice, it is important to look through the lens of potential value based on where you draft him. If you are looking for safety with your third or fourth running back, look elsewhere. Guice is the ultimate high-ceiling, low-floor player. I propose that at his current draft position, he can only win you a league. Not lose you a championship.
College Production
At LSU, Derrius Guice gained over 1,300 scrimmage yards in back-to-back seasons. He also had at least 13 touchdowns in both of his final two years. That is an elite level running back production. Enough to make him a top-five Heisman candidate in 2017. Coming out of college, he had elite metrics including a 4.49 40-yard dash time putting him in the 80th percentile and a breakout age of 19. He was dominant enough at LSU to be taken in the 2nd round in the NFL draft with the thought that he would take over the backfield duties in Washington.
Injury Discussion
As Tyler mentioned in his argument, Guice has a storied injury history. I think the likelihood of him re-injuring himself or slowing down as the years go on is quite possible. However, for redraft leagues, you have a running back who is reportedly going to be 100% healthy on a team with no elite workhorse back. Adrian Peterson is 35 years old, The rest of the running backs either have injury histories of their own or have not shown signs of being reliable for fantasy purposes. If Guice is able to stay healthy, he has a clear path to becoming the workhorse back in Washington.
NFL Action and Running Back Competition
Ron Rivera will have his hands full in the running back room this season in Washington. At the top of the depth chart (for now), you will find Adrian Peterson, then Guice, followed by Bryce Love, and rounded out by Peyton Barber and JD McKissic. This group is likely to thin out by week one, however, let’s look at this group a little closer. Adrian Peterson is no spring chicken, as mentioned above he is 35 years old. Peterson is trending down in his carries and yards and as he continues to get older. With all the options in Washington, you’d have to assume he will continue to see his workload decline.
Bryce Love is an intriguing second-year prospect out of Stanford. He was able to put up over 2,000 yards in his Junior year at Stanford and had been thought of as a potential first-round pick. Love tore his ACL in his senior season at Stanford and saw his draft capital fall. He is thought by some to be one of the most talented running backs in this offense if he can show he can stay on the field. Love is a big question mark on this team.
Next up is JD McKissic, he has broken 200 yards rushing one time in his four-year career. He is more of a receiving weapon who should step into the Chris Thompson role in this offense. Last is Peyton Barber, who has been fairly mediocre throughout his first four NFL seasons. Currently, Barber is averaging 3.6 yards per carry for his career. Barber is the least interesting running back in this offense. To that end, I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting McKissic or Barber in redraft leagues barring injuries.
The Redskins did add Antonio Gibson with the 2nd pick in round 3 of the 2020 NFL draft. I have more concerns about this in dynasty formats, but for redraft, this pick does not scare me as a Guice owner. He had 34 career rushing attempts at Memphis and found himself used more as a wide receiver. When he did get carries they were all very similar in play style which concerns me about his ability to learn different blocking schemes and new running plays at the highest level. Gibson certainly has some interesting positional flexibility for Washington to play with. As far as stealing carries from Guice, I would be more concerned about the others in that backfield before Gibson.
The running back with the most potential, explosiveness, and opportunity to leap into fantasy stardom would be Derrius Guice. Last year, in very limited work, Guice averaged almost 6 yards per carry on 42 carries. He was able to be targeted a little bit as a receiver out of the backfield as well. There is not a ton of tape on Guice at the NFL level. Watching what he has done on 42 carries though, gives me the feeling that his ceiling is higher than most think. To get a sense of what he could be in the NFL, watch his LSU highlight reel.
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExFV4rygdTk[/embedyt]
Draftability
What this boils down to for me is all about upside and ceiling. Derrius Guice is no stranger to injury. There are certainly doubts as to what size role he can take on with a crowded backfield in Washington and an injury history. That said, as Tyler mentions, Guice is being drafted around the same range as a Tarik Cohen. Cohen may be able to provide some PPR fantasy relevance. Yet, at this point in a draft, I would much rather go for the maximum ceiling (Guice) than a medium-high floor (Cohen). Championships aren’t built in the first few rounds in redraft.
To win a championship you need to find guys like Derrius Guice that are going to scare some people off in order to get him later in the draft. To take a risk in round six or later on a high upside running back could very well win you a championship. I don’t see a player like Tarik Cohen being the guy to catapult you to fantasy stardom. Guice is a fantastic number three running back option in your redraft leagues with the chance of becoming an elite fantasy producer if he can stay on the field.
Thanks for reading, find me on Twitter @DFF_ZTrain to chat anything and everything fantasy football related!
