In this debate series, @DFF_Ztrain and I have broken down two different players so far, Derrius Guice and JuJu Smith-Schuster. You can find links at the bottom of this article if you want to read our previous work. Now, let’s jump into Baker Mayfield. I get the negative side this time, as I don’t love Mayfield or his situation in 2020. Here come the knives.
Mayfield’s College Journey and Rookie Profile
Mayfield had a crazy experience in his college career. He started as a walk-on at Texas Tech in 2013 but quickly became the starting quarterback. However, due to some still-mysterious issues with the coaching staff there, Mayfield decided to transfer to Oklahoma. After sitting out the 2014 season, Mayfield became Oklahoma’s starting quarterback in 2015.
Once he became the starting quarterback at Oklahoma, Mayfield never relinquished the starting job, excelling for a three-year stint. He put up excellent stats at Oklahoma, where he completed 69.8% of his passes and threw 119 touchdowns compared to only 21 interceptions. He also finished in the top-four of Heisman Trophy voting in each of his three seasons, eventually winning the award in his final season in 2017. In that 2017 season, he threw for 4,627 yards, 43 touchdowns, and only six interceptions, leading Oklahoma to a Big 12 Championship.
While Oklahoma lost in the College Football Playoff semifinals, Mayfield did enough throughout his college career to be a top draft prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft cycle. The Browns had the first overall pick and needed a quarterback. They considered Mayfield, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen but eventually decided to go with Mayfield. The Browns had gone 1-15 in 2016 and 0-16 in 2017, so they needed a savior to turn around the franchise. They hoped that Mayfield was that guy.
2018: Rookie Success
Going into 2018, the Browns had Tyrod Taylor as their bridge quarterback to Mayfield. Head coach Hue Jackson declared that Taylor would start Week 1 and would play as long as the team remained contenders. Considering that the Browns won only one game in the last two seasons, that outlook seemed optimistic. In fact, after the Browns tied in Week 1, lost in Week 2, and Taylor suffered a concussion in Week 3. Mayfield stepped in and led the Browns to a win, solidifying his hold on the starting job.
Once he took over as the starter, Mayfield excelled as a rookie. He completed 63.3% of his passes and threw 27 touchdowns compared to only 14 interceptions. He averaged 17.6 fantasy points per game over that stretch, 14th among quarterbacks. Mayfield set the record for touchdown passes by a rookie quarterback and led the Browns to a decent 6-7 record in the games he started.
However, there were some warning signs in Mayfield’s rookie year. First, he added nothing on the ground, totaling only 131 rushing yards on 39 carries all season. Therefore, he didn’t show any rushing upside and lacked the same potential of other fantasy quarterbacks. Also, while his 27 touchdowns were impressive, he did throw 14 interceptions and fumbled seven times. Mayfield wasn’t great at taking care of the ball, which he would need to work on going into tear two.
2019: The Disappointment
Overall, I was high on Mayfield after his rookie year. I vaulted him into my dynasty top-five at the quarterback position and expected a solid 2019 season as a back-end QB1. However, his value took a massive spike after the Browns traded for star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. in March of 2019. Considering that Mayfield was a borderline QB1 without Beckham Jr., expectations for Mayfield soared after the trade. He was a consensus top-five quarterback in redraft rankings going into the 2019 season as fantasy owners and analysts felt his upside was among the best.
Unfortunately, none of that upside paid off in 2019. Everything that could go wrong for the Browns did during a tumultuous season. First, the Browns decided to hire incumbent offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens as their head coach. As Kitchens coached Mayfield during his successful period in 2018, it made sense as a hire at the time. However, Kitchens proved his utter incompetence throughout 2019. The entire team was undisciplined throughout the season, and Kitchens seemed to have no idea how to call an offense or run a coaching staff.
While Kitchens’ poor performance was undoubtedly part of the problem in 2019, some other issues plagued the Browns. Beckham Jr. struggled with a sports hernia injury, and he never played up to his full potential. Also, third-year tight end David Njoku failed to live up to his potential, missing most of the season with injuries and falling into Kitchens’ doghouse at other times. The Browns got nothing out of promising second-year receiver Antonio Callaway, who struggled with drops and discipline issues and then washed out of the NFL entirely.
Despite these obstacles, the biggest problem for the Browns in 2019 was the play of Mayfield himself. He played all 16 games but finished as only the QB19. He averaged a vile 14.2 fantasy points per game, 26th among quarterbacks. Some quarterbacks that outperformed him included: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, and Jacoby Brissett. Also, Mayfield scored three rushing touchdowns on only 28 carries, compared to Nick Chubb’s eight on 298 carries. Without those slightly lucky touchdowns, Mayfield would have been even worse for fantasy than he was. Overall, Mayfield was awful in fantasy and a total fantasy bust based on his draft price.
Mayfield failed as a fantasy quarterback, and his real-life performance was just as terrible. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Mayfield finished 31st in completion percentage at 59.4%, ahead of only Josh Allen. He also finished second in interceptions with 21, behind only Jameis Winston and his 30. Unfortunately, he wasn’t any better in passer rating, once again coming in at 31st, only ahead of Andy Dalton. Also, Mayfield threw for only 22 touchdowns and 3,827 yards, so it’s not like he made up for any of this with volume passing numbers.
Therefore, Mayfield’s 2019 performance wasn’t just bad, it was unquestionably terrible. If he wasn’t a first-overall pick that the Browns invested in heavily, he likely would have been benched based on his level of play. Until writing this article, I don’t think I truly realized how much Mayfield struggled last year. No matter how much upside he’s shown in college or his rookie year, there’s no way to forget this 2019 season.
2020: Last Chance?
Like I said above, Mayfield’s 2019 performance would have gotten him benched in most situations. With that in mind, the Browns signed Case Keenum to a three-year, $18 million contract to back up Mayfield. Now, the Browns have a proven option behind Mayfield in case he’s as terrible in 2020 as he was in 2019. I don’t expect them to pull the plug on Mayfield quickly, but they now have that option.
In fairness to Mayfield, the Browns did everything they possibly could in the offseason to improve his situation. I broke down all their free-agency moves already, but to summarize, they added tight end Austin Hooper, retained third-down back Kareem Hunt, and overhauled their offensive line. They also picked left Jedrick Wills Jr. in the first round to further protect Mayfield.
However, new head coach Kevin Stefanski ran the Vikings’ run-heavy offense as their offensive coordinator. Kirk Cousins finished as the QB19 in that offense and averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game, just a bit more than Mayfield in 2019. The Browns have even better running backs than the Vikings, as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt represent the best 1-2 tandem in the entire NFL. I don’t expect Mayfield to see more passing volume than 2019, so any improvement would need to come from efficiency.
With all that in mind, I can’t recommend drafting Mayfield in redraft formats in 2020. He was terrible in 2019 and doesn’t play in an offensive system conducive to fantasy success. Also, he opens the season in Week 1 at the Ravens, one of the best defenses against fantasy quarterbacks in 2019. Therefore, you can’t possibly play him in that matchup and would need to find an alternate streaming option for Week 1. I would avoid Mayfield in 2020 altogether. He’s my QB15, but I would take other options over him based on his Week 1 matchup.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
Derrius Guice: Pro vs. Con
