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“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

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The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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thompson

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Brenen Thompson

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In 2025, Thompson was third-team All-SEC. He set a Mississippi State single-season record with 1,054 receiving yards, was the first Mississippi State player to lead the SEC in receiving yards, and led the SEC in average depth per target. He was also a nominee for the Conerly Trophy (top player in Mississippi) and made the Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Thompson is projected as a 4th-round selection by NFL Mock Draft Database, and Lance Zierlein has a player comparison to J.J. Nelson.
STRENGTHS
Thompson is a smaller-built vertical threat who has an eye-popping 39.8 yards per touchdown catch. Seven of these ten career touchdowns have come on plays of 42 yards or more. Clearly, he’s a dynamic playmaker based on these statistics alone. His speed allows him to have easy wins over the top that require safety help in man coverage. Thompson shows a shifty release against press coverage and runs past cornerbacks before they can even turn and run. He adds an immediate vertical dimension that can loosen defenses.

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Henry jr

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Robert Henry Jr.

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Robert Henry Jr. signed with the Washington Commanders after going undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft. 
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Robert Henry Jr. began his career at Jones College, a community college in Mississippi. He produced as a true freshman, but his breakout came in 2022 as a sophomore. That season, Henry rushed for over 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns, earning first-team NJCAA All-American honors. 

Following this noteworthy season, Henry transferred up to D1 football, playing for the Roadrunners of UTSA. He made the jump with no issues, rushing for 11 touchdowns in 2023. This past season was his best one for UTSA, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards and finding the endzone nine times on the ground. He was used minimally in the receiving game, but did have two receiving touchdowns in 2025. 

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coleman

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Kevin Coleman Jr.

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Coleman began his college career at Jackson State, finding some success as a true freshman on his way to 475 receiving yards and three touchdowns. 

Coleman transferred up to Louisville for his sophomore season, where he was relegated to a part-time role, running just 222 total routes. He finished that season third on the team in receptions and receiving yards, behind Jamari Thrash and Chris Bell. 

Following the 2023 season, Coleman transferred again to Mississippi State, where he posted the best numbers of his career. He was a focal point in the Bulldogs’ offense, nearly hitting 1,000 receiving yards and finding the endzone six times. 

If you’ve caught on at this point, you probably guessed right. Coleman transferred for a THIRD time, closing out his senior year at Missouri. His numbers took a dip in his final season, posting 66 receptions for 732 yards and just one touchdown. 

As a whole, Coleman finished his career with 1.98 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 21.3% target rate, both fairly pedestrian numbers for an NFL-caliber prospect. He’s purely a slot receiver, running 92% of his routes in the slot in college. 

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eric

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Eric McAlister

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McAlister attended Azle High School in Azle, Texas, where he caught for 2,947 yards and 43 touchdowns in his final two seasons. He was rated as a three-star recruit and committed to play college football for the Boise State Broncos over offers from schools such as Nebraska, San Diego State, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Boise State

In week 10 of the 2022 season, McAlister hauled in two receptions for 33 yards and his first career touchdown versus BYU.He finished the 2022 season with 11 receptions for 259 yards and four touchdowns. In week 10 of the 2023 season, McAlister notched eight receptions for 85 yards in a 37–30 loss to Fresno State. He finished the 2023 season with 47 receptions for 873 yards and five touchdowns for the Broncos. Late in the 2023 season, with three games remaining, he stepped away from the team and entered his name into the NCAA transfer portal.

TCU

McAlister transferred to play for the TCU Horned Frogs in 2024, where he had two productive seasons. McAlister combined for 111 receptions, nearly 2,000 receiving yards, and 15 touchdowns. His final season was most impressive, with 1,190 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. 

Some Red Flags

TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister was arrested on a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

He was also charged with a second count of terroristic threat, causing fear of imminent serious bodily injury, which is a misdemeanor. According to his indictment, he was accused of threatening a man with a gun.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Tanner Koziol

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Koziol began his career at Ball State in 2022, where he was an immediate producer, posting 35 receptions for 379 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman. After a small regression in his sophomore year, Koziol broke out in Year 3, finishing with 94 receptions for 840 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Following his big junior year, Koziol made the jump to the Power 4, transferring to Houston for his final season. He continued finding success against tougher competition, proving to be one of Conner Weigman’s most reliable targets in 2025. He closed out his senior year with 74 receptions for 727 yards and six touchdowns. He led all FBS tight ends in both targets (94) and receptions in 2025. 

Koziol’s efficiency over his final two seasons indicates he should be a very fantasy-friendly player if he manages to see the NFL field consistently. He averaged 2.12 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 29.4% target rate, both excellent marks for a tight end. 

Screenshot 2026 04 26 5.26.59 PM

FILM

Below is a snippet of my film breakdown for Koziol in our 2026 Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide:

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cole

2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Cole Payton

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Cole Payton took a big step forward in 2025 when he finally got the keys to the offense full-time.

He finished the season completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,719 yards, with a 16-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. On top of that, he averaged 12.1 yards per attempt, which tells you he wasn’t just taking easy throws. He was pushing the ball downfield.

What really adds to his profile is what he can do with his legs. He added 777 rushing yards, which shows he’s not just mobile; he’s a real part of the run game.

This was a big jump for him, especially after being used more in a limited role earlier in his career. In 2025, he showed he can handle being the guy.

Payton stats

FILM

When you’re scouting a quarterback, it’s not about what happened. It’s about why it happened. And with Cole Payton, the traits are what stand out.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Emmett Johnson

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Emmett Johnson was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs, becoming the 6th running back and 161st overall player in the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Emmett Johnson took over the Nebraska backfield in 2025 and didn’t look back. He handled a big workload and produced at a high level, finishing with 1,451 rushing yards on 251 carries (5.8 YPC) and 15 touchdowns.

What really stands out is how much he improved over time. His efficiency got better every year, and by his final season, he was clearly the engine of that offense.

He also brought real value in the passing game with 46 catches for 370 yards, and his 15.9% target share shows he wasn’t just a checkdown option. He was a legit part of the offense.

He may not have the typical “bell-cow” size, but the production and usage say this is a player who can handle volume and make an impact in multiple ways.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Michael Trigg

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Michael Trigg signed with the Dallas Cowboys as an undrafted free agent (UDFA) following the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Michael Trigg was a big part of the Baylor offense in 2025 and produced like one of the top tight ends in the country.

He finished with 50 catches for 694 yards and 6 touchdowns, which had him near the top of the position in multiple categories. What stands out is how he was used. This wasn’t just short routes and dump-offs.

Trigg’s 13.9 yards per reception highlights his role as a consistent downfield threat, showing he isn’t just a short-yardage safety valve but a player capable of picking up significant chunks of yardage on every catch. On top of that, he forced 17 missed tackles, which tells you he can do something with the ball after the catch.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Kaytron Allen

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Kaytron Allen was drafted by the Washington Commanders, becoming the ninth running back and 187th overall player selected in the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Despite having to deal with Nicholas Singleton in the same backfield, Kaytron Allen stayed four seasons at Penn State. Not only that, but he thrived, eventually taking over the lion’s share of the work. After productive freshman and sophomore campaigns, Allen really exploded over his final two seasons, rushing for 2,411 yards and 23 touchdowns in that span. 

What’s impressive about Allen is that he increased his rushing yardage in each season. In doing that, he leaves as the program’s all-time leading rusher. Pretty extraordinary when you think about all the excellent backs that went to school there. Through the air, Allen isn’t agile enough to pick up large chunks, but he does have decent hands for a larger back and reeled in 70 receptions for 490 yards during his collegiate career.  

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Seth McGowan

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Seth McGowan was drafted by the Indianapolis Colts, becoming the 12th running back and 237th overall player in the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Seth McGowan stepped into a lead role at Kentucky in 2025 and handled it like a true workhorse.

He finished with 725 rushing yards on 165 carries (4.4 YPC) and 12 touchdowns, showing he could carry the load and still be a scoring threat.

The yards per carry dipped a bit compared to what you might want to see, but context matters. He was doing it in the SEC against better competition and still found the end zone consistently.

He also brought something in the passing game with a 7.7% target share, which shows he wasn’t just a two-down back. He was part of the offense in multiple ways.

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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Bryce Lance

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Bryce Lance was drafted by the New Orleans Saints, becoming the 19th wide receiver and 136th overall player in the 2026 NFL Draft.
COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Bryce Lance did not come into college as a guy everyone was talking about right away, but once he got his chance, he made it count.

After barely seeing the field early in his career, Lance put together back-to-back strong seasons at North Dakota State. In 2024, he posted 75 catches for 1,071 yards and 17 touchdowns. Then in 2025, he followed that up with 51 catches for 1,079 yards and 8 touchdowns, while averaging a big-time 21.2 yards per catch.

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