mike williams

DFF Redraft Championship Draft

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The DFF team recently completed our annual DFF Redraft Championship draft and I was fortunate enough to be granted the first overall pick! We set up a 17-round PPR draft, with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 D/ST as starters, and a 7-player bench. This was especially fun because it was the first year we implemented a zoom video conference during the draft and had live commentary on each and every selection. It was certainly a tough room but we had a blast. I’m excited about my team and chances against the stout DFF competition this year. Let’s review how my draft unfolded from the 1.01 spot. 

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Redraft Impact of PPR Scoring

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The original idea of half and full PPR scoring was to even out the production between running backs and wide receivers. In the past, say 15-20 years ago, running backs significantly outscored wide receivers. But, giving points per reception leveled the playing field. I’ll break down whether that’s still true, but that was the primary purpose behind PPR scoring systems. Also, basing scoring on receptions creates more predictability in projecting fantasy points. As always, fantasy leagues are more fun when they reward skill over luck. Specifically, adding PPR scoring reduces the scoring impact of touchdowns, which are highly unpredictable, in favor of receptions, which are highly predictable.

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Dynasty Story: Dede Westbrook

Dynasty Story: Dede Westbrook

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In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at their 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy. 

Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Dede Westbrook. Let’s jump right in!

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Dynasty Story: Mike Williams

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” I wrote about Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, and recently about Melvin Gordon. I love writing about redraft, but I realized that I could bring this style over to dynasty. In a dynasty story, I’ll look more at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. Let’s jump into Mike Williams, the subject of my first dynasty story.

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The Rookie QB Mousetrap

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Breaking down these results broadly, we find that 4% of our sample QBs supported a WR1,17% supported a WR2, and 47% supported a WR3. In other words, since 2012, there’s been a 53% chance that a rookie QB fails to produce even a single wide receiver in the top 36. Considering there are only 32 teams in the NFL, that’s a pretty shocking revelation.

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DFF Rookie Round Table, Part 3: Tee Higgins

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After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism.  I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!

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Redraft Team Focus: Chargers

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For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a starting quarterback not named Philip Rivers. Rivers was a checkdown machine unlike almost any other quarterback in the NFL, as he heavily targeted all his running backs, not only Ekeler. The Chargers drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as their long-term starting quarterback and have Tyrod Taylor as their bridge starter. Both Taylor and Herbert scare me for Ekeler’s overall value.

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Three Breakout Wide Receivers for 2020

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This article aims to identify three wide receivers to buy low on before they break out in 2020. The chart above plots Air Yards on the X-axis and 2019 PPR Fantasy Points on the Y-axis. 18 players in the NFL finished with over 1,400 Air Yards on the season. Of those 18, only three failed to finish with more than 200 fantasy points on the year: Mike Williams, Curtis Samuel, and Robby Anderson.

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Breakout Third-Year Wide Receivers, Part 1

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Whether you believe in the third-year breakout theory for wide receivers or not, there is a strong case to be made for a number of players from the 2017 NFL Draft class.  I’m going to briefly discuss the notable third-year wide receivers and determine the likelihood that they break out in 2019. Using an arbitrary 25% increase over their best fantasy season to date using PPR scoring, I’m going to assess a percent chance that each player reaches their breakout score THIS season (suffice to say this is assuming the relative health of each player).

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