fantasy advice

The Myth of Vacated Targets

Every season teams lose valuable receiving options from the prior year, and every season fantasy managers daydream about the possibility of a random bench piece inheriting all that volume. While this narrative has played about favorably for a handful of players, in the grand scheme of the NFL, it is actually very rare. “Vacated Targets” is the snake oil of fantasy football. Don’t let yourself get duped.

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2021 Targets: Who Will Ascend to Elite Status?

Every year in fantasy football, there are players who take the next step towards becoming “must-own” dynasty assets. Finding who these players are is one of the many things that make fantasy football such a challenging and rewarding game. The purpose of this article is to discuss a few of those targets who could be on the cusp of entering top-12 first-round dynasty status.

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Dynasty: Restricted Free Agents

Last year I looked into the Restricted Free Agent (RFA) market in search of sleepers we may be able to dig up. Unfortunately, it wasn’t that exciting. The likes of Kendrick Bourne, Isaiah McKenzie, David Moore, and others ended up resigning and had limited impact throughout the year. The best of that group last year was Keelan Cole who ended up with 55/642/5. We as dynasty owners are always trying to find value or that next guy that could take a leap. The free-agent class this season is much deeper and more exciting. However, for fantasy, we are always looking for that throw-in piece into a trade or a player forgotten as an afterthought. I am hoping to give you some names to grab before the beginning of free agency to acquire cheaply or for nothing at all.

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Bryce Young: 2021 Devy Profile

Bryce Young should be the unquestioned starter in 2021. He plays behind an offensive line that proves to be one of the best in the country year after year. He will undoubtedly be surrounded by the next wave of Bama stars. Young’s top receiving option should be John Metchie who recorded 55 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns last season.

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Chris Olave: 2021 Devy Profile

In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.

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Fan Favorite J.J. Watt Leaves One Desert For Another

Monday, the news became official that J.J. Watt had accepted an offer from the Arizona Cardinals for two years and $31 million with $23 million guaranteed. For the two and a half weeks he was a free agent, Watt had been linked to the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, and a few other teams. For Watt, it is the end of an impressive era with the Houston Texas, who selected him 11th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. The fan-favorite won the hearts of millions with his work ethic, integrity, and authenticity. Heading into his age 32 season, J.J. Watt embarks on the twilight hours of his career as he chases the ever-elusive Lombardi trophy. 

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The Hybrid Startup Strategy and Results

Here at DFF, we completed a startup dynasty league draft with a unique format that few had tried before. But few will willingly go back to a standard snake draft after experiencing the thrill of the hybrid setup. This was a shallow, 12-team league including a Superflex starting roster and tight end premium scoring. The unique format of this draft is that we started with a partial auction, then rounded out the rosters with the standard snake-style.

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Robby Anderson

Is Robby Anderson for Real?

If you’re anything like me, you grabbed Robby Anderson every year he was with the Jets expecting a massive breakout. You usually came up empty-handed as Anderson only finished inside the top 24 once (WR18 in 2017). In 2020, he signed with the Panthers and, after a fast start, finished as WR19. The Robby rollercoaster has burned a lot of fantasy managers over the years, so I decided to find out if last season was an outlier or the new normal.

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The (R)evolution of the Rushing Quarterback on Late Round QB Strategy

A few weeks ago, I was scrolling the Twitter timeline and saw several tweets about the value of rushing quarterbacks, and how the “Late Round QB” (LRQB) strategy in fantasy football (popularised by JJ Zachariason) was on the wane. Seemingly, the consensus was that capturing the upside that rushing quarterbacks bring to your lineup, was worth the opportunity cost of selecting one in the early to middle rounds of your draft. As a fervent proponent of the LRQB theory, my immediate thought was to dismiss it, but my curiosity got the better of me – so I went to the data to see what I could find.

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JT Daniels: 2021 Devy Profile

JT Daniels burst on the scene at USC starting as a true freshman, and, while not a stud, looked to be a solid enough player. Obviously, his accuracy was less than stellar and the offense struggled from time to time, but these growing pains aren’t unheard of from true freshman quarterbacks. Entering his second season at USC, there was hope that Daniels was ready to take the next step behind center and elevate his level of play. Halfway through the first game in 2019, USC found themselves scrambling for a replacement as Daniels went down with a torn ACL.

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draft stock week seven

DFF Way Too Early Mock Draft 1.0: First Round

Yes, some of us are still nursing Super Bowl hangovers or regretting watching Tom Brady walk out of the organization he called home for the last two decades, but there are three things we love in Fantasy Football: Start-Up Drafting, Trading & Rookie Drafts. So the team at DFF got on board and jumped the gun on a 2021 way too early Rookie Mock, and the results will surprise you in just how deep this class is on the back of a stellar 2020 class. 

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Kyren Williams: 2021 Devy Profile

Kyren Williams is a 5’9” 195 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s 24th ranked running back in the 2019 class and the sixth-ranked player from Missouri. Williams was an all-purpose stand-out in high school, helping lead his team to a state championship in 2018 with a state-championship game record of 289 rushing yards and 354 total yards. 

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Draft Stock Watch: Week 2

Spencer Rattler: 2021 Devy Profile

Spencer Rattler is currently the odds-on favorite to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy. At 6’1”, 205 lbs. he is shorter than the average NFL quarterback, but that isn’t keeping him from being projected at a stop option at the position in 2022. Rattler was the top quarterback in the 2019 recruiting class but was forced to sit his freshman season behind Jalen Hurts.

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Wentz There’s a Will There’s a Way

Carson Wentz’s career has been nothing short of a rollercoaster ride. Wentz was initially drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and caught fire almost instantly. In his first year, he set multiple NFL and Eagles’ rookie records and in his second year led the Eagles to an 11-2 record catapulting him into a front runner for league MVP before suffering a torn ACL, ending his season. 

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Justyn Ross: A Wide Receiver Possessed

Justyn Ross is possibly the best wide receiver to play for Clemson University, if not one of the best we have seen in the college game of recent memory. Better than DeVonta Smith. Yes, I said that and stand by it. He has the size (6’4”/205 lbs.) and despite his pedestrian 4.87 40 time, as soon as he straps on a helmet and pads, he takes it to a whole other level. The current NFL player I would most likely compare him to is another Clemson WR product, DeAndre Hopkins. His size, catch radius and just football instincts are second to none.

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Sam Howell-UNC

Sam Howell: 2021 Devy Profile

At the time of writing, betting odds place Sam Howell as one of the top five players most likely to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. With the departure of teammates Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Dyami Brown, the Tarheel offense faces an uphill battle. If Howell is able to put up similar numbers after losing several heavy hitters to the NFL, it will set a lot of people at ease that it was talent and not merely the situation that led to Howell’s success.

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Breece Hall: 2021 Devy Profile

As a freshman, Breece Hall earned the Iowa State starting running back job. He ran for 897 yards and nine TDs on a 4.9 yards per carry average. He also showed off his pass-catching abilities with 19 catches for 207 yards and one TD. As a true freshman he accounted for 19% of the team yardage, and 19% of their touchdown production. Thus, he earned a 19% dominator rating, qualifying for a true freshman breakout at age 18.7 years old. 

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