If you’re anything like me, you grabbed Robby Anderson every year he was with the Jets expecting a massive breakout. You usually came up empty-handed as Anderson only finished inside the top 24 once (WR18 in 2017). In 2020, he signed with the Panthers and, after a fast start, finished as WR19. The Robby rollercoaster has burned a lot of fantasy managers over the years, so I decided to find out if last season was an outlier or the new normal.
Situation
Coaching
Carolina offers a lot for Anderson’s upside. He reconnects with college coach Matt Rhule, the guy who fought to get him reinstated after he was academically suspended at Temple. There is a definite bond there. Rhule personally recruited Anderson to join the Panthers and believes in him. A lot. I’m talking Sean Payton and Taysom Hill levels of belief here.
The Panthers also have an OC that’s seen a meteoric rise in Joe Brady. Under Brady last season, the Panthers finished 22nd in pass attempts but 17th in passing yards. The real issue with the passing game was an inability to score. Finishing with 16 TDs, only the Giants and the Patriots had fewer passing touchdowns. However, Brady did put his QB in a position to be successful, and the Panthers finished with a 67.8% completion percentage which was good enough for sixth in the league. Brady, who was the passing game coordinator at LSU in 2019, led LSU to the 14th most attempts in the nation, the second-most yards, and the best passing touchdown per game rate. He wants to throw the ball. A new QB would give him the opportunity.
Personnel
From a personnel standpoint, things are mostly trending up in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey missed all but three games last season. He should return and shift the focus of defenses, opening up more for Anderson downfield. The Panthers have the eighth pick in the draft, and many are expecting them to grab a QB. If that happens Teddy Bridgewater could still be the starter at the beginning of 2021, but by mid-season, I would expect him to be unseated by the rookie, who would be given every opportunity to throw it around the yard.
The worst thing for the offense, but possibly the best thing for Anderson, would be the departure of Curtis Samuel. I don’t expect him to remain with the team. Even if the Panthers choose to franchise tag him, it is likely it would be an attempt to get a sign-and-trade deal. With Samuel gone, assuming they don’t bring in anyone to replace him, would leave 97 targets vacated. Some of these would go to CMC out of the backfield and whoever fills in as the Panthers WR3, as well as split between Anderson and D.J. Moore.
I don’t like pushing the “vacated targets” narrative because it is more correlative than causative. Just because there are targets available doesn’t mean Anderson will absorb them. In all likelihood, a new player will step in and help carry the load, but Anderson could still see an uptick. Nevertheless, it still needs to be taken into account when thinking about what 2021 could hold for him.
2020 Performance
As mentioned earlier, Anderson started hot in 2020. He came out of the gates with his best game, a six-reception, 114-yard performance capped off with a touchdown. After five weeks, Anderson was WR7 and had three 100-yard receiving games (and one 99-yard game). Through the back half of the season, Anderson began to fade. From Week 8 on, he only went over 65 yards twice. While some might chalk it up to QB play down the stretch, I think it has more to do with the scheme.
The flip came from the increased utilization of Samuel. While Samuel failed to surpass 51 receiving yards in a game through the first seven weeks, he finished strong posting three 100-yard performances and only twice finishing with less than 65 yards. The departure of Samuel in 2021 could lead to a resurgence of Anderson.
Despite fading in the back half, Anderson finished the season eighth in targets (136), sixth in target share (26.1%), and fifth in yards after the catch (486). A fairly telling statistic is Anderson’s hog rate. He had a 17.8% rate, which represents his target/snap, meaning when Anderson is on the field he’s getting the ball quite a bit. He also finished 15th in air yards, which is always a statistic to look at for possible breakouts.
2021 Path to Success
Of players that saw over 100 targets in 2020, only two of them caught fewer TDs (Evan Engram and A.J. Green) than Anderson. He could see positive regression in his touchdown total in 2021. While Anderson saw career highs in targets, receptions, and yards, he only saw fewer TDs in his rookie season. If he can find his way into the end zone more often, his fantasy totals will benefit.
For Anderson to be successful, Samuel can’t be a Panther. I think usage last year showed that Samuel negatively impacts Anderson’s usage. While the Panthers likely want Samuel to stick around, they are not in a great situation for a bidding war if multiple teams show interest. If indeed the Panthers draft a QB, I expect them to grab at least one lineman and one other offensive weapon. That player could absorb some of the vacated targets, but typically rookie receivers take some time to get into the flow of the offense. D.J. Moore will likely see greater efficiency, but I don’t think that will hurt Anderson. If anything, it will pull even more coverage from him.
With a team that finished middle of the pack defensively, Carolina chose (or was forced) to use Bridgewater as more of a game manager. A new quarterback opens up the offense.
Conclusions
If the Panthers let Curtis Samuel walk, it benefits Robby Anderson more than anyone else on the team.
If the Panthers draft a QB at pick eight or even trade up to get their guy, it benefits the passing game and Anderson.
While Anderson will be 28 entering the season, he still has a lot of fantasy value left on an offense that looks to have multiple weapons heading into 2021. If you have Anderson on your roster and you’re competing, he’s definitely a hold. If you think you can make a run at the title in 2021, I’d offer a 2020 2nd for Anderson and shore up my receiving corps.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @fantasyonefive for any fantasy football advice or just to talk about fantasy strategy in general.
